Breaking down Keith Law’s top 100 MLB prospects list: Risers, fallers and top systems

This is Keith Law’s 18th year to rank his top 100 prospects. Looking back over his last five top 100 rankings here at The Athletic (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024), you’ll find a lot of names that even casual baseball fans would recognize.

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Top 100 MLB prospects 2025: Keith Law’s rankings, with Roman Anthony at No. 1

While it’s always worth bookmarking the list to return to easily, this year I’ve been asked to write a companion piece to help you sift through this massive undertaking. Here are a few takeaways.

Most- and least-represented teams and divisions

While the Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks had strong showings (six players each), there was one clear winner. With seven players on the board, the Detroit Tigers have the most representation, with players ranging from No. 6 (OF Max Clark, 20 years old) to No. 94 (RHP Jaden Hamm, 22).

If you’re going division-by-division, the Tigers helped propel their division rivals to a collective win, with 23 players — nearly one-fourth of the list — coming from the AL Central. On the flip side, the AL West had just 12 players, with half of those coming from the Mariners.

That leads us to a tie for the least-represented teams: three of the five teams with just one player on the list were AL West teams (Astros, Angels, A’s), with Atlanta and San Francisco rounding out the five-way tie.

Biggest jump / drop / debut

As we track players from year to year, it’s fun to see how each player progresses. In 2020, Law ranked Bobby Witt Jr. at No. 47. The next year, No. 27. By 2022, he was No. 2, behind only Adley Rutschman, and finished fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting that year (Rutschman finished second, and Julio Rodríguez, ranked No. 9 that year, won the award). Fast forward to 2024, and Witt has finished in the top 10 in AL MVP voting each of the last two years, trailing only Aaron Judge last year.

On the flip side, Jack Leiter of the Texas Rangers debuted at No. 26 in 2022 before slipping to No. 92 the next year, and falling off the list the last two years, despite retaining rookie eligibility into 2025. Even the most can’t-miss prospects do, in fact, go missing from time to time. Here are this year’s top three biggest movers (ages in parentheses):

• No. 89 to No. 13 (76 spots) — SS Aidan Miller, Seattle Mariners (21)

• No. 86 to No. 16 (70 spots) — C Dalton Rushing, Los Angeles Dodgers (24)

• No. 79 to No. 20 (59 spots) — LHP Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox (21)

Likewise, here are the three who dropped the furthest, year-over-year, from last year’s rankings:

• No. 24 to No. 92 (68 spots) — 2B Termarr Johnson, Pittsburgh Pirates (21)

• No. 41 to No. 95 (54 spots) — OF Druw Jones, Arizona Diamondbacks (21)

• No. 50 to No. 83 (33 spots) — 3B Cam Collier, Cincinnati Reds (20)

Thanks to big-league promotions (28 players from the 2024 list), players who were either drafted in 2024 or took big steps forward last year, and other players who fell off the list (22 players), fully half (50 players!) of the list is populated by players who were not on last year’s top 100. Here are the top three top-100 debuts.

• No. 9 — 2B/OF Kristian Campbell, Boston Red Sox (23)

• No. 23 — 2B Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers (20)

• No. 24 — SS Felnin Celesten, Seattle Mariners (19)

We should note that all three of these players were eligible for the 2024 list, but went unranked. So really, this classifies as a second “biggest jump” list as well. Likewise, the biggest fall could be RHP Dylan Lesko, who was ranked No. 35 in last year’s rankings, but did not make this year’s list. That’s a minimum of 66 spots, even if he had been the very first player left off this year’s list.

Most-represented position, best at each position

It should come as no surprise to anyone that the most-represented position on the board is shortstop. Look around the league and you’ll see a lot of second and third basemen who started their pro careers as shortstops before being bumped to another position by a better prospect (or age or skillset). Here’s the breakdown of the Top 100 by position, and which player ranked highest at the position.

Of note: If a player was listed at more than one position, I counted them for both, so these numbers will add up to more than 100. Also, Law has Jac Caglianone listed as just a first baseman, but for the sake of this exercise — since the Royals have thus far said they allow him to continue to pursue a career as a two-way player — I counted him among the left-handed pitching ranks.

Also, since Sebastian Walcott of the Texas Rangers is the No. 2 prospect, that puts him atop both the shortstop and third base lists. So I listed him at both, and also added the next-highest ranking player to both of those positions below.

• SS (25): No. 2 — Sebastian Walcott, Texas Rangers (19) and No. 5 — Colt Emerson, Seattle Mariners (19)
• OF (23): No. 1 — Roman Anthony, Boston Red Sox (21)
• RHP (18): No. 11 — Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers (22)
• C (15): No. 3 — Samuel Basallo, Baltimore Orioles (20)
• 2B (12): No. 9 — Kristian Campbell, Boston Red Sox (23)
• 3B (8): Walcott and No. 14 — Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs (23)*
• 1B: (8): No. 26 — Josue De Paula, Los Angeles Dodgers (20)
• LHP (5): No. 20 — Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox (21)

A couple more notes on positional eligibility: Shaw is listed as “infielder,” but is expected to compete for the Cubs’ third base job this spring. If you’re looking for the highest-ranking prospect whose only position is third base, I direct you to No. 18 Coby Mayo (23) of the Baltimore Orioles. Likewise, Kristian Campbell is “2B/OF,” so the next-highest ranked second baseman is No. 23 Kevin McGonigle (20) of the Tigers. And lastly, Josue De Paula is “1B/OF,” so the next in line at first base is No. 29 Bryce Eldridge (20) of the Giants.

Lowest-ranking best players

Before I get to this, I want to remind you that making the top 100 list at all means a player is an exceptionally good prospect. So I’m not picking on anyone by including this category, but I think looking at both quantity and highest-ranking player gives us a better look at each team’s farm system. For example, the Reds have five players in the top 100, which puts them in a tie with four other teams (Red Sox, Brewers, Dodgers and White Sox) for fifth-best in the league. But here’s where each of those five teams’ best players rank:

• Red Sox: No. 1 — OF Roman Anthony (21)
• Brewers: No. 15 — C Jeferson Quero (22)
• Dodgers: No. 16 — C Dalton Rushing (24)
• White Sox: No. 20 — LHP Noah Schultz (21)
• Reds: No. 40 — RHP Chase Burns (22)

But when it comes to lowest-ranking best players, four teams were clearly standouts, with their highest-ranking player coming in the back half of the top 100:

• Marlins: No. 57 — LHP Thomas White (20)
• Royals: No. 60 — 1B Jac Caglianone (22)
• Angels: No. 63 — RHP Caden Dana (21)
• Blue Jays: No. 71 — SS Arjun Nimmala (19)

The one-player teams

While we’re at it, let’s take a look at those five teams who only had one player make the list. If you’re only going to have one, it would give some optimism if they were pretty high on the list, right?

• Atlanta: No. 27 — C Drake Baldwin (24)
• Giants: No. 29 — Bryce Eldridge (20)
• A’s: No. 35 — 1B Nick Kurtz (22)
• Astros: No. 43 — 3B Cam Smith (22)
• Angels: No. 63 — RHP Caden Dana

Three are in the top 40, with none in the top 25. 

Most players in the top 40

On the other end of the spectrum, the top 40 echelon was relatively diverse, with 25 teams represented, breaking down thusly: 13 teams had one player, nine teams had two players, and these three teams had three players each:

Boston Red Sox

• No. 1 — OF Roman Anthony (21)
• No. 9 — 2B/OF Kristian Campbell (23)
• No. 28 — SS Marcelo Mayer (22)

Detroit Tigers

• No. 6 — OF Max Clark (20)
• No. 11 — RHP Jackson Jobe (22)
• No. 23 — 2B Kevin McGonigle (20)

Chicago White Sox

• No. 20 — Noah Schultz (21)
• No. 37 — C Kyle Teel (23)
• No. 38 — OF Braden Montgomery (22)

Finally, some good news for the White Sox, who picked up the latter two of their top three prospects in the Garrett Crochet trade this winter. That also should imply some extra credit to the Red Sox, who would have had an astonishing five players in the top 40 (and seven in the Top 100) had they not made the trade. To be able to pull off a deal of that caliber without giving up any of your top three prospects is a very good sign for the health of their farm system.

(Top photo of No. 1 prospect Roman Anthony: Maddie Malhotra / Boston Red Sox / Getty Images)

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