Pro Football Focus has consistently disrespected the Denver Broncos, as the analytics giant continues to unveil its top 32 players at each position. With only one position left to go, the Broncos have had a player fairly ranked at only tight end and linebacker thus far.
As we get to cornerback, Patrick Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, was ranked as the second-best at his position. Fans are right to perceive this as more disrespect.
PFF’s John Kosko decided to put Surtain behind Sauce Gardner in his cornerback rankings, despite the Broncos’ All-Pro being the reigning DPoY and Gardner coming off the worst year of his career. While Gardner performed better in only a handful of statistical areas, there is one reason why Surtain could possibly be considered over him, and Kosko touches on it in his explanation of both players, although he fails to sell it conclusively.
“While he might not shadow opposing wide receivers at a high rate, he has excelled when asked to do so,” Kosko said of Gardner.
As for Surtain, here’s what Kosko wrote about his ridiculous decision to pass over the reigning DPoY as the best cornerback in the league.
“The reigning Defensive Player of the Year has recorded an 89.5 PFF coverage grade over the past three seasons, ranking second among cornerbacks, and his PFF advanced coverage grade places third,” Kosko wrote. “Often asked to shadow the opposing team’s top wide receiver, Surtain has produced at an elite level, as he’s allowed just 0.77 yards per cover snap across the past three years.”
So, the guy who faces the opponent’s top receiver often is behind the guy who doesn’t, even though the stats are mostly better for the one who does take on the No. 1 guy as a game-in, game-out occurrence? Once again, PFF’s math isn’t mathing.
In terms of statistics, Gardner had one fewer penalty, allowed 15 fewer receptions, five fewer yards, one less yard after the catch, five more forced incompletions, two more pass break-ups, and one touchdown, compared to Surtain’s two, all while playing 192 fewer snaps in coverage. Gardner’s reception percentage was significantly lower than Surtain’s, and he forced more incompletions, but again, he wasn’t covering the top receiver most of the time.
Despite that, Surtain played more and barely allowed more yardage and yards after the catch while covering the top receiver for most of the game. He also had four interceptions to Gardner’s one, had a lower NFL passer rating when targeted, a higher snap count per target, more tackles, and no missed tackles, while Gardner missed four of them.
Last year, Gardner had two games where his PFF coverage grade was over 80. One of them came matched up against DK Metcalf, where he allowed one catch for 28 yards and broke up two passes.
The other came against the New England Patriots and matched up against Tyquan Thornton, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Kayshon Boutte. Even if you look at games with a PFF coverage grade over 70, you add one game for Gardner, and that’d be the Jets’ game against the Broncos, where Bo Nix didn’t challenge him at all.
Surtain also had only two games over an 80 PFF coverage game, both against the Las Vegas Raiders. However, in his games where he earned a coverage grade north of 70, you add eight more games. In those games, he matched up consistently against the opponent’s top receivers.
Surtain mirrored them in coverage, including Garrett Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins, Drake London, and Jakobi Meyers (Davante Adams didn’t play in the first game and was traded before the second Raiders game), Jerry Jeudy (who had a big game but was contained when Surtain was on him), Michael Pittman Jr., and Jamar Chase.
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So, not only did Surtain perform better with the PFF coverage grades, grading out better overall for the season, but he also did so while playing more snaps and taking on the tougher matchups. He is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and PFF putting him as the second corner is a sham.
Surtain is better than Gardner, and PFF’s own metrics prove it.
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