Iowa State’s defense is getting far too much credit, even at home, ahead of a matchup with the BYU Cougars and their red-hot offense, as our college basketball betting picks explain.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Richie Saunders of the BYU Cougars in action.
It may be bold to suggest the No. 2 defense in the Big 12 is going to give up a bounty of points tonight, but that needs to be considered no matter how good the Iowa State Cyclones’ defense is. The BYU Cougars’ offense has simply been that good of late.
My BYU vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks will take that bold approach before tip at 9:00 p.m. ET from Hilton Coliseum on Tuesday, March 4 on ESPN2.
BYU vs Iowa State prediction
My best bet
BYU team total Over 70.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
In the last month, the BYU Cougars have enjoyed the fourth-most efficient offense in the country, adjusted for opponents, per barttorvik.com. Who has been ahead of the Cougars? Only Duke, Missouri and Alabama. The closest Big 12 offense has been Houston’s, more than seven points per 100 possessions behind BYU since Feb. 4.
To be fair and thorough, it should be acknowledged the Iowa State Cyclones have enjoyed the fifth-most efficient offense in the country, adjusted for opponents, in the last month. Who has been ahead of the Cyclones? Three mid-majors and Michigan State. But more notable than that lesser company is that the closest Big 12 defense has been West Virginia’s, within a bucket of Iowa State per 100 possessions since Feb. 4. Houston and Arizona are also within a bucket.
Do not take that as criticism of the Cyclones’ defense. Rather, that comparison is intended to highlight just how much the Cougars’ offense has separated from its peers.
BYU has scored on those teams rivaling the Cyclones’ defense. It hung 73 at West Virginia and 77 at home against the Mountaineers; BYU managed 74 points in a home loss to Arizona and poured in 96 in Tuscon.
The three most recent of those moments cleared BYU’s team totals, the exception coming exactly a month ago at Arizona, with 74 points not reaching the betting mark of 78.
The Cougars take 3-pointers on 47.6% of their field-goal attempts, the highest rate in the Big 12. They make 37.8% of those looks, No. 2 in the conference. There is little reason to think the Cyclones will cut down on those entirely, giving up long-range looks on 38.8% of opponents’ shots, No. 7 in the conference.
Expect BYU to chuck, and expect them to make plenty of those shots. It has been doing so with ease for the last month.
BYU vs Iowa State same-game parlay (SGP)
BYU team total Over 70.5
Under 149.5
Richie Saunders 2+ made 3-pointers
Pairing the BYU team total Over 70.5 with BYU +8.5 creates a payout of only +150. Pairing it instead with this game total Under 149.5 jumps the payout to +700.
Logic that out real quick. In the first parlay, BYU scores at least 71 points and keeps within eight points of Iowa State. Please note, the Cyclones have scored 80 or more points just twice in their last six games.
In the second parlay, BYU scores at least 71 points and the game still fails to reach 150. In other words, Iowa State falls a bit short of 80 points. Perhaps the Cougars get too hot to stay Under this total, but the difference in payouts makes this value clear.
Tossing a couple of Richie Saunders made 3-pointers into the mix pushes the payout that much further. Considering he hit at least a pair of 3-pointers in three of those four games against comparable defenses in the last month, that hardly feels like an aggressive escalation in this parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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BYU vs Iowa State odds
BYU vs Iowa State live odds
BYU vs Iowa State opening odds
- Spread: BYU +8.5 | Iowa State -8.5
- Moneyline: BYU +300 | Iowa State -380
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
BYU vs Iowa State betting trend to know
BYU has gone 6-0 against the spread in its last six games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 11 points per game. Find more college basketball betting trends for BYU vs. Iowa State.
How to watch BYU vs Iowa State
| Location | Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
BYU vs Iowa State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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