The Tulane Green Wave football team began to creep into the College Football Playoff conversation toward the end of the 2024 season.
Their consecutive losses to the Memphis Tigers and Army Black Knights in the AAC Championship game quieted those talks, as did the Boise State Broncos running away with the Group of Five slot.
As they look to retool and make a run in head coach Jon Sumrall’s second season, that path may grow tougher with the Pac-12 looming in the wings.
The Green Wave may not want to leave the American Conference, nor may they be the top target to poach.
However, they may want to watch the Memphis Tigers closely as smoke grows around their fit in the expanded Pac-12 as a football-only member and as the conference works towards dominating the access to the CFB.
Insider John Canzano has consistently reported on a link between the top of the AAC and the Pac-12 in his weekly mailbag (subscription required).
Interest has increased in the Tigers as a potential top member of the American Conference, especially since the Memphis Commercial Appeal reported that Memphis received the highest payout in the AAC last season at $11 million.
Canzano’s response to the question of whether the Pac-12 could match those costs was intriguing.
It’s not so much about beating distribution costs. The biggest thing for the Tigers to consider is whether they believe they can still access the College Football Playoff from the AAC.
“Some of the football analytics folks I talk with believe the gap between the Pac-12 and the rest of the non-Power 4 conferences will be viewed as even wider than the gap between the SEC and the Big 12 champion,” Canzano wrote. “That may give Memphis something extra to think about.”
Canzano believes that the Pac-12 champion will be higher ranked and better positioned in most seasons for that playoff berth.
Is he correct that the perceived gap is as wide as he reports? If it’s close to accuracy, that may lead the Green Wave to consider re-opening talks — either with Memphis or the Pac-12 leaders.
Now, should the Tigers remain in the AAC with Tulane, do they make a convincing rebuttal to that argument?
If the Pac-12 really wants Memphis as much as they reportedly do for football and possibly basketball, it speaks to their value as a conference member.
With the Green Wave’s recent football success, they make a commanding partner to the Tigers.
They’d be well-positioned to follow their trajectory closely through this offseason.
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