Clemson’s incredible ACC run continued with a blowout win last week against Florida State, but now face a stiffer test on the road in SMU.
The Mustangs are firmly in the NCAA Tournament picture, but can use a signature win at home against Clemson to avoid lingering concerns about missing the “Big Dance.” In a game that is a projected coin flip, let’s see who has the edge on Saturday afternoon.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 147.5 (Over -112/Under -108)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Clemson
Chase Hunter: Despite a quiet game against Florida State in an otherwise flawless effort from Clemson in the 72-46 win, Hunter is the engine behind this Clemson team. He is shooting a career best 42% from beyond the arc this season and has been one of the most reliable players in the ACC with the 11th-best true shooting percentage.
SMU
Boopie Miller: Miller has missed the last two games due to injury, but will be a game-time call for this one again. The team surely will need the Wake Forest transfer to keep up with Hunter as he’s shooting 42% from distance in ACC play while posting a top five assist rate. If he goes, SMU will get a big bump, especially on offense.
I like Clemson as road favorites in this one.
Whether Boopie Miller plays or not the Tigers should have the edge in this one as I trust the team’s transition denial defense to force SMU to operate in the half court against a team that can match its size.
The Mustangs have been a top four shooting team in ACC play in terms of effective field goal percentage, but the team has really excelled at generating second chances, tops in the league in offensive rebounding rates. However, the Clemson double big lineup may be able to keep the Mustangs rebounding edge minimized and if that’s the case and the Tigers can slow this game down I far prefer the visitors to thrive.
SMU has not beaten a team inside the KenPom top 50 this season, and Clemson rates as a better team than the 38th ranked Mustangs. Clemson checks in 22nd with comparable 3-point shooting to SMU, each team is shooting 38% from beyond the arc.
However, its inside the arc with the likes of Viktor Lakhin and Ian Schieffelin around the rim that can be the difference against an SMU defense that is shaky defending the post.
I’ll pay to see SMU beat an elite team and I’ll play the cheap moneyline on Clemson.
PICK: Clemson ML (-128, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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