This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Odds: Conference Championship Futures Odds
And we’re back with another edition of “Future Wednesday” where yours truly hands out a fire future play from the college diamond. So far, I’ll say I’ve given out some pretty good ones that have seemingly trended in the right direction. Continuing with this weekly series, I have done a little detour on the CWS and Golden Spikes markets. While I could continue to give you those and talk about stuff that’s not super bettable at the moment, I thought we would spice it up.
The conference winner (regular season) markets are also new to books. In their second year, it can be a very difficult, but profitable proposition if you know what you’re looking for. Thus, we’re taking a dive to the Big 10.
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College Baseball Future Wednesday: Big 10 Conference Winner
Predominantly dubbed the worst conference in the Power 5…and now Power 4, the Big 10 hadn’t really turned out a legitimate threat in a while. It’s been a pretty sad little thing. But now, we may have seen some revamping going on with a few of those PAC-12 teams joining the ranks.
Preseason, Nebraska 8/1 was one of my conference tickets. I felt the number was too big on a top 25 team that had a legit threat to not just win the Big 10, but be a super regional squad. They had what I thought could be the Big 10 pitcher of the year leading the charge in Mason McConnaughey, but he went down for the year last week. Though the Huskers are still a pretty solid team, that one hurts. Losing your Friday guy is one thing, losing one of the better arms in the game is another. It’s like asking the Tigers to be a contender after losing Tarik Skubal.
I’m still not writing them off because conference play has barely started and they have a team that may be able to deliver, but the odds have inflated to 15/1. That being said, there is a lot of value in this new shaped market.
Let’s go back to the preseason. Penn State was a team I loved for a long shot. A 40/1 ticket on Bet Rivers for a team that should have reasonably been half those odds? Your honor, no objections. The kicker was other books had them 65/1. Disrespectful! I could not believe what a slap in the face it was to a team with some real sleeper potential and actual stars like Bryce Molinaro, Paxton Kling, Ryan Weingartner, and Ryan DeSanto.
The Nittany Lions aren’t just a football school, those boys can get after it on the diamond. Most people didn’t know about it. After the books have seen the start they are off to, PSU is 10/1 and the third favorite on Bet Rivers to win the B10. At my number, I’m sitting pretty with a great ticket in the back pocket.
UCLA was a team I didn’t pay much mind to. They’ve been a busted program for a hot minute despite the allure of some talented dudes like SS Roch Cholowsky. The last time they won the College World Series was 2013. The last time they made the tournament was 2022. It’s been depressing af. They were 19-33 last year and 28-24-1 in ’23. I’ve caught some of their games so far and it looks like they could be half-decent in 2025. Off to a 12-4 start, the Bruins have a chance to be competitive to win this conference this year, and at 7/1 it’s something I would think twice about.
They had a good series win at Maryland last week for their inaugural Big 10 series. While the new conference doesn’t ooze the type of firepower the SEC or ACC does, it still has some good teams in there. And seemingly, most of those good teams they have to play are all at home, except Oregon. I’m not completely sold on this team or roster yet, but they have my curiosity. So for UCLA, I’ll be keeping an eye on them for any potential bets to take in the future.
The reason I took Nebraska and Penn State preseason was because I told myself there is NO WAY that JohnnyVTV is buying in on the Phil Knight-fueled Oregon in their first season of a new conference where all the books anoint them as a giant favorite. The Ducks, in addition to having some fire uniforms, have surely also surprised with consecutive super regional appearances. I thought about some “to make/to win CWS” tickets on them, but realize they just have proven they’re at that level.
I may have brought up Oregon to make it around +500 on a preseason podcast, but who can remember? The Ducks’ “impressive start” came off beating the brakes off to teams like Toledo, Rhode Island, and Columbia. While they racked up these juiced-up Nikola Jokic super-inflated stats like tops in the country in homers and runs scored, a lot of us questioned the legitimacy of it thanks to a butter schedule.
Last week, the Ducks took their first Big 10 test with a series at USC, and they passed with flying colors via the sweeparoo. Now, the Trojans are far from the warriors that you would see in Brad Pitt’s “Troy” but they’re still a decent team. My point is with the changes to this market, the once even-money you could grab them at a few weeks ago is gone. It’s clear for now #10 Oregon has a pretty good squad that may be capable of pulling out a top eight national seed this year.
A really good starting rotation of Grayson Grinsell, Collin Clarke, and Will Sanford provides beautiful balance to an offense that has nine hitters batting .300 or better. Led by leadoff OF Mason Neville and his 10 home runs, Oregon has shown they are a complete team. And for a conference that’s nowhere near as talented as the other big three, it doesn’t seem any other team is particularly close to them.
Normally, I don’t like doing this, but even at this price it seems like a steal. Laying -177 for a Ducks team that is so far and away more talented than anybody else in the Big 10 feels like a must. When the market opened in the preseason, it was pretty much 2/1 or less. +125 to even money a week or so in. And now -177 feels like a bargain for the 14-3 Oregon program.
Pick: Oregon to win the Big 10 -177 (Bet Rivers)
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