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UVA head coach Brian O’Connor (Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The final week of the regular season is upon us, meaning we’re less than two weeks away from finding out the official Field of 64. The penultimate week of the campaign was quite influential for the bubble, with several teams moving in either direction, including a handful of new entrants into the projected field.
Below is Baseball America’s latest Bubble Watch, in which we take a closer look at those teams vying for at-large bids. Conferences that are projected to occupy three or more bids are listed first, followed by teams pushing to give their leagues a second entry. You can see yesterday’s projected Field of 64 here.
ACC
The ACC strengthened its position behind the SEC in total bids after it grew its list of projected entries to 10 in BA’s latest Field of 64. Entering the final weekend of the regular season, the ACC has nine teams locked safely into the NCAA Tournament, with Duke the latest to join that group. Virginia is getting closer to joining them after a potentially season-altering sweep of Miami, while Virginia Tech and Notre Dame are running out of time to make their case but both still in the hunt. Hosting contenders remain plentiful, and bubble volatility is increasing as Selection Monday nears.
Locks: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Should be in: Virginia
Work to do: Virginia Tech, Notre Dame
Virginia (30-16, 14-10; RPI: 60; SOS: 74)
The Cavaliers still have work to do, but they’ve inched closer to safety after a weekend sweep of Miami pushed them to 14 conference wins and back inside the top 60 in RPI. It’s not a slam dunk résumé by any means, but Virginia closing out the regular season on the road against Virginia Tech could certainly propel it in that direction. Win that series and the Cavaliers likely secure a bid. Drop it, and they’ll surely be on the outside looking in with only the ACC Tournament left to save them.
Notre Dame (30-19, 12-15; RPI: 47; SOS: 50)
The Irish are knocking at the door. A strong April vaulted them up the RPI board and into the “first team out” position in BA’s most recent projection. But 12 conference wins still won’t be enough. Notre Dame’s final series at Miami looms large. If it can win two of three, it would likely push into the field.
Virginia Tech (29-22, 11-16; RPI: 49; SOS: 25)
Sweeping Mercer doesn’t erase the bigger issue: Virginia Tech has lost four straight ACC series and sits at just 11-16 in league play. That’s simply not good enough for an ACC at-large berth. Even if the Hokies take two of three at Virginia this weekend, they’d still be sitting on a shaky 13-17 record entering the conference tournament. For now, BA has Virginia Tech on the outside looking in, but we’re including them here because their path is not completely closed.
Big 12
The Big 12 has officially graduated into one of the most secure multi-bid leagues in the country. Six teams are already safely in, and a seventh is closing in. Cincinnati needs just one more series win to lock things up, while Oklahoma State remains the last team with a viable (if unlikely) path to an at-large bid.
Locks: Arizona, Arizona State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, West Virginia
Should be in: Cincinnati
Work to do: Oklahoma State
Cincinnati (29-22, 14-13; RPI: 35; SOS: 23)
The Bearcats had a chance to lock up a bid last weekend but fell just short, losing two of three at TCU. Still, their résumé remains strong—solid RPI, a top 25 SOS and 14 Big 12 wins. They’re close. A home series win this weekend against Kansas State would likely do it. A series loss wouldn’t knock them out entirely, but it would reopen the door for doubt heading into the Big 12 Tournament.
Oklahoma State (24-22, 12-12; RPI: 52; SOS: 16)
The Cowboys are still alive, if only barely. Their overall record and conference standing lag behind the rest of the Big 12 contenders, but with a top 20 strength of schedule and a winnable home series against Arizona State left, there’s at least a puncher’s chance. Win that series, and Oklahoma State may enter the Big 12 Tournament with a more legitimate shot to sneak in.
Big Ten
The Big Ten has three teams locked in and a fourth on the verge, but the rest of the league is clinging to hope. Iowa continues to lead the conference but hasn’t done enough to fully shake its metrics problem, while Michigan’s postseason path grew murkier after a damaging series loss. The final weekend looms large.
Locks: Oregon, UCLA, USC
Should be in: Iowa
Work to do: Michigan
Iowa (30-17-1, 21-6; RPI: 66; SOS: 121)
Iowa had a chance to solidify its standing last weekend against Oregon State but couldn’t finish the job, dropping two games and tying the third. The result leaves the Hawkeyes in virtually the same spot as last week: dominant in-conference, shaky everywhere else. With the No. 66 RPI and No. 121 strength of schedule, Iowa’s résumé doesn’t scream “at-large,” but their regular season Big Ten title since 1990—within reach this weekend against Oregon—could tip the scales in their favor. Lose the series, and they’ll enter the conference tournament with more to prove.
Michigan (32-19, 15-12; RPI: 56; SOS: 75)
The Wolverines needed a strong finish to solidify their at-large case, and a series loss to Nebraska has made that path much more difficult. With a top 60 RPI but a conference record that’s trending the wrong way, Michigan now faces a must-sweep situation against Indiana to stay in the conversation. Anything less would likely leave them needing a deep Big Ten Tournament run—if not an outright conference tournament win—to get in.
SEC
The SEC remains the standard-bearer for depth, with 12 teams now locked into the NCAA Tournament field. Mississippi State looks poised to become the 13th with one more series win, while Texas A&M’s shocking collapse against Missouri may have shut the door on its at-large hopes entirely.
Locks: Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt
Should be in: Mississippi State
Work to do: Texas A&M
Mississippi State (31-20, 12-15; RPI: 32; SOS: 9)
Not much needs to be said. Mississippi State’s résumé is tournament-caliber—strong RPI, elite SOS and a recent series win over rival Ole Miss. The Bulldogs are on the doorstep. But they must finish the job against Missouri this weekend. Win the series and they’re in. Lose it, and the conversation becomes much murkier again.
Texas A&M (27-23, 10-17; RPI: 59 SOS: 12)
The Aggies just suffered the worst series loss of the SEC season—and arguably one of the most shocking in years—getting swept at home by previously-winless Missouri. The fallout is severe: Texas A&M’s RPI has plummeted, its league record is dismal and it may now need to sweep Georgia or win the SEC Tournament to get in. Both scenarios feel highly improbable. What was once trending towards a near-lock résumé now feels irreparably broken.
Sun Belt
Nothing has changed in the Sun Belt in several weeks. The top three of Coastal Carolina, Southern Miss and Troy remain steady, and there’s no bubble movement behind it. The only way this league adds another bid is through a stunning conference tournament display from one of the teams not listed below. As such, this will almost certainly be a three-bid league.
Locks: Coastal Carolina, Troy, Southern Miss
Should be in: None
Work to do: None
Others To follow
Big East
Locks: None
Should be in: Connecticut
Work to do: Creighton, Xavier
The Big East picture continues to thin out. What once looked like a two-bid league now appears to be trending toward a single representative. UConn remains solidly in the field, while Xavier and Creighton have slipped to the wrong side of the bubble. Creighton does have head-to-head series wins over both UConn and Xavier, so a sweep over Georgetown this weekend and a potential piece of the regular-season conference title could be enough to push it into the field, but this feels like a one-bid league at this stage.
Big West
Locks: UC Irvine
Should be in: None
Work to do: Cal Poly
One thing we’ve laid out at BA over the course of the last month is the very precarious nature of at-large mid-major bids. Cal Poly is very much at risk of becoming a great example of this. The Mustangs looked like a potential two-seed less than a month ago but now have a résumé that’s barely clinging to the bubble. A single loss in a series win over CSUN hurt the Mustangs’ metrics, including their now-mid-40s RPI. It’s still possible that Cal Poly makes the field as a second Big West team, it’s just going to be a lot more difficult now.
Conference USA
Locks: Dallas Baptist
Should be in: Western Kentucky
Work to do: None
With a little help from other bubble teams like Xavier and Texas A&M, Western Kentucky returned to our projection partway through Week 14 and could stay there if it closes out its regular season by taking care of business in a very winnable home series against Jacksonville State. Win that and Western Kentucky should be dancing alongside potential host Dallas Baptist.
Southland Conference
Locks: None
Should be in: UTRGV
Work to do: McNeese State, Lamar, Southeastern Louisiana
Baseball America earlier this week projected the Southland to receive just one bid, with Southeastern Louisiana being the odd-man out and one of the first four teams to miss our projected field. The way we see it, the path to two bids is simple: Both UTRGV and Southeastern Louisiana need to reach the league’s championship round. Do that and there’s a real chance both could gain NCAA Tournament entry. Anything short and the résumés are unlikely to support a two-bid year.
Final Stock Report
Risers
- Duke (ACC): Achieved lock status
- Virginia (ACC): Moved up from ‘Work to do’ to ‘Should be in’
- Arizona State (Big 12): Achieved lock status
- Kansas State (Big 12): Achieved lock status
- Oklahoma State (Big 12): Moved into ‘Work to do’
- Florida (SEC): Achieved lock status
- Kentucky (SEC): Achieved lock status
Fallers
- Texas A&M (SEC): Moved down from ‘Lock’ to ‘Work to do’
- Cal Poly (Big West): Moved down from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Work to do’
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