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The 2025 college baseball regular-season is in the books and we’re less than a week away from Selection Monday. There remains a good bit of uncertainty about how the back end of the Field of 64 will come together, with several results from the final weekend of the regular season sure to impact the postseason landscape.
Below is Baseball America’s latest Bubble Watch, in which we take a closer look at those teams vying for at-large bids. Conferences projected to occupy three or more bids are listed first, followed by teams pushing to give their leagues a second entry.
ACC
The ACC continues to live up to its reputation as one of the deepest conferences in college baseball. With nine teams locked into the NCAA Tournament and a few more still hanging around the bubble, the league is set to be one of the most well-represented in the Field of 64. The new single-elimination format in this year’s conference tournament raises the stakes even higher for bubble teams like Virginia, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, all of whom still have something to prove heading into the postseason.
Locks: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Should be in: Virginia, Notre Dame
Work to do: Virginia Tech
Virginia (32-17, 16-11; RPI: 55; SOS: 77)
Virginia won’t come off the bubble until it’s either picked for or denied entry to the NCAA Tournament, as its metrics aren’t those that make for a stress-free Selection Monday. However, the Cavaliers’ series win over Virginia Tech to close out the regular season bolsters a resume that should be good enough to make the field. A win or two in the new-look ACC Tournament would certainly help to make Virginia a more comfortable at-large inclusion, though that outcome feels more likely now regardless, barring a high volume of stolen bids.
Notre Dame (32-20, 14-16; RPI: 40; SOS: 46)
We said last week that a Notre Dame series win at Miami would likely be enough to push it into the Field of 64, as it would punctuate an excellent final six weeks of the regular season. Notre Dame did exactly that to improve to No. 40 in RPI and secure critical 13th and 14th conference wins. As BA sees it, Notre Dame is currently on the right side of the bubble with an opportunity to snatch up a lot more certainty in the ACC Tournament.
Virginia Tech (30-24, 12-18; RPI: 51; SOS: 30)
Virginia Tech’s postseason hopes are on life support after dropping its final series to Virginia. Despite a better strength of schedule than both the Cavaliers and the Irish and a better RPI than Virginia, the Hokies’ 12 conference wins leave them short of the standard for an at-large bid. Technically, the door remains open—a deep ACC Tournament run could push their league win total into a more competitive range—but anything short of that would almost certainly mean the end of their season.
Big 12
The Big 12 may lack a clear Omaha frontrunner, but few conferences can match its sheer volume of postseason-caliber clubs. With six teams already safely in and two more tracking toward at-large bids, the league could push as many as eight teams into the NCAA Tournament. That depth has been fueled by breakout years from Kansas and Cincinnati, the consistency of Arizona and late surges from Oklahoma State and others. The conference tournament will serve as a final proving ground, particularly for bubble teams looking to remove any lingering doubt.
Locks: Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, West Virginia
Should be in: Arizona State, Oklahoma State
Work to do: None
Arizona State (35-21, 18-12; RPI: 46; SOS: 43)
It’s hard to imagine a team with 18 Big 12 wins getting left out of the tournament, but Arizona State is testing the limits. The Sun Devils were swept by Oklahoma State in the final weekend of the regular season, dropping them to No. 46 in RPI—a precarious spot for a team with their talent. Their overall profile still leans tournament-worthy, but the late stumble raises just enough doubt to keep them off the ‘lock’ line. Regardless of outcome, this is a group that underachieved relative to reasonable expectations for its loaded roster. A postseason miss or rapid exit could very well precede a coaching change in Tempe.
Oklahoma State (27-22, 15-12; RPI: 44; SOS: 12)
The Cowboys got exactly what they needed in their sweep of Arizona State, boosting their RPI from No. 52 to No. 44 while reinforcing a fringy resume with a top 15 strength of schedule. Their record isn’t eye-popping, but the quality of their competition helps close the gap. Like Arizona State, they aren’t quite a lock, but it would be a surprise if Oklahoma State doesn’t find itself in the Field of 64.
Big Ten
With the addition of three Pac-12 powers, the Big Ten looks stronger at the top than it has in years. Still, the league’s postseason bubble picture remains murky. Oregon and UCLA are battling for national seeding while USC is locked into the NCAA Tournament as a projected three seed. No other team in the league has a profile sturdy enough to avoid the uncertainty of conference tournament week. Both Iowa and Michigan enter the Big Ten Tournament needing wins—and possibly more—to keep their postseason hopes alive.
Locks: Oregon, UCLA, USC
Should be in: None
Work to do: Iowa, Michigan
Iowa (30-20-1, 21-9; RPI: 73; SOS: 94)
For weeks, Iowa’s profile lagged behind its Big Ten record—and the bottom finally fell out. The Hawkeyes closed the regular season with a disastrous 1-8-1 stretch, including five losses and a tie against Quadrant 1 opponents. Despite finishing third in the league standings, Iowa enters the postseason clearly on the wrong side of the bubble. With an RPI in the 70s and no standout wins, it likely needs to win the Big Ten Tournament—or come very close—to stay in the mix.
Michigan (33-21, 16-14; RPI: 62; SOS: 76)
Michigan had a chance to build real momentum entering the postseason but dropped two of three to Indiana in its regular season finale, leaving its RPI and league record trending in the wrong direction. Now sitting at No. 62 in RPI with a 16-14 Big Ten mark, the Wolverines likely need to string together multiple wins in the conference tournament, at a minimum, to break through the bubble and earn an at-large bid.
SEC
Conference tournament chaos across the country could still shift the at-large landscape, but the SEC is all but guaranteed to make history on Selection Monday with 13 teams poised to hear their names called. That includes Mississippi State and Kentucky, both of which spent recent weeks on the bubble. It leaves Texas A&M as the lone team on the outside looking in—an astonishing figure that underscores the depth and dominance of the league. Whether or not the Aggies can claw their way back into the picture, this is shaping up to be the most well-represented conference in NCAA Tournament history.
Locks: Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt
Should be in: None
Work to do: Texas A&M
Texas A&M (28-25, 11-19; RPI: 54; SOS: 11)
The Aggies salvaged a game in their series at Georgia and, in doing so, nudged their RPI to No. 54. But it wasn’t nearly enough to erase a disappointing 11-19 conference record. Despite a strong strength of schedule, Texas A&M’s only real path to the NCAA Tournament is a deep run in Hoover. Anything short of that—and possibly even that—will leave the Aggies out of the field, capping off one of the most underwhelming and surprising seasons in recent history.
Sun Belt
For most of the spring, the Sun Belt looked like a surefire three-bid league. Coastal Carolina, Southern Miss and Troy each played like regional-caliber teams for long stretches, and none appeared particularly vulnerable heading into the final weeks. But a lopsided last weekend has introduced some real uncertainty. Coastal and Southern Miss remain safe. Troy, however, now finds itself squarely on the bubble and in need of help—or perhaps wins—to hold onto its spot.
Locks: Coastal Carolina, Southern Miss
Should be in: Troy
Work to do: None
Troy (37-19, 18-12; RPI 43; SOS: 68)
Troy was the only Division I team to go 13 straight weeks without dropping a weekend series—a streak fueled by a favorable schedule and consistent execution. But a home sweep at the hands of Southern Miss to close the regular season has brought their postseason status into question. The Trojans are now just 3-8 in Quadrant 1 games and sit at No. 43 in the RPI, teetering on the edge of the field. The profile still looks like that of a No. 3 seed, but any stolen bids or an early Sun Belt Tournament exit could spell trouble for a team that once looked like a lock.
Others To follow
Big East
Locks: None
Should be in: Connecticut
Work to do: Creighton, Xavier
The Big East sits on a knife’s edge heading into conference tournament week. It could very well land multiple teams in the NCAA Tournament—but only if everything breaks right. Connecticut is the league’s best hope, and Baseball America continues to project the Huskies as the conference tournament champion, which would secure them the automatic bid. If that happens, Creighton and Xavier would need strong at-large resumes to join them. Creighton holds the head-to-head advantage, but Xavier has the edge in RPI. A two-bid Big East is still on the table, but it will take near-perfect tournament alignment to get there.
Big West
Locks: UC Irvine
Should be in: None
Work to do: Cal Poly
The Big West remains on track to be either a one- or two-bid league—depending entirely on what happens in the conference tournament. UC Irvine is the only team safely in the NCAA Tournament field and is the favorite to win the league’s automatic bid. If the Anteaters claim the title, the Big West likely sends just one team. But if Cal Poly or another contender takes the crown, Irvine is still a lock, and the league becomes a two-bid conference. Cal Poly is the most likely spoiler after a strong regular season, though UC Santa Barbara has the talent to make a run, as well.
Conference USA
Locks: Dallas Baptist
Should be in: None
Work to do: Western Kentucky
This is shaping up to be a one-bid league—unless Dallas Baptist gets tripped up in the conference tournament. The Patriots are safely in the NCAA Tournament field and could even host depending on how things break elsewhere. But behind them, the at-large picture has thinned. Western Kentucky had re-entered the mix late, but a series loss to Jacksonville State to end the regular season hurt badly. Like the Big West, Conference USA’s best path to multiple bids is a surprise tournament champion not named DBU.
Southland Conference
Locks: Houston Christian OR New Orleans
Should be in: None
Work to do: UTRGV, Southeastern Louisiana
The Southland entered tournament week with a slim chance to earn multiple bids—but that door has all but closed. Both UTRGV and Southeastern Louisiana had outside shots at at-large consideration if one of them fell short in the title game. But with neither team advancing to the Southland championship, it’s almost certainly now a one-bid league. The lone spot will go to either Houston Christian or New Orleans, both of whom would be safely in the field by virtue of claiming an auto bid. As for UTRGV and Southeastern, their only remaining hope is a Selection Monday miracle.
Final Stock Report
Risers
- Notre Dame (ACC): Moved up from ‘Work to do’ to ‘Should be in’
- Cincinnati (Big 12): Moved up from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Lock’
- Oklahoma State (Big 12): Moved up from ‘Work to do’ to ‘Should be in’
- Mississippi State (SEC): Moved up from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Lock’
- Houston Christian/New Orleans (Southland): Moved into ‘Lock’ category ahead of Southland championship
Fallers
- Arizona State (Big 12): Removed from ‘Lock’ and placed in ‘Should be in’
- Iowa (Big Ten): Dropped from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Work to do’
- Troy (Sun Belt): Removed from ‘Lock’ and placed in ‘Should be in’
- Western Kentucky (CUSA): Dropped from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Work to do’
- UTRGV (Southland): Dropped from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Work to do’
- McNeese State (Southland): Moved from ‘Work to do’ off the bubble
- Lamar (Southland): Moved from ‘Work to do’ off the bubble
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