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Selection Monday is just four days away, and Baseball America is back with our latest Bubble Watch to take a closer look at those teams vying for at-large bids.
Conferences projected to occupy three or more bids are listed first, followed by teams pushing to give their leagues a second entry.
ACC
With nine teams locked into the NCAA Tournament and a few more still hanging around the bubble, the ACC is poised to be the second-most represented conference in the Field of 64. The new single-elimination format in this year’s conference tournament has only raised the stakes for bubble teams like Virginia and Notre Dame, both of whom entered the week with something to prove but lost to Boston College.
Locks: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Should be in: None
Work to do: Virginia, Notre Dame
Virginia (32-18, 16-11; RPI: 59; SOS: 76)
Virginia’s stay in Charlotte was brief and damaging. The Cavaliers committed five errors and allowed five unearned runs in a brutal ACC Tournament loss to Boston College, a result that dropped them to No. 59 in RPI and cast serious doubt on their postseason hopes. With no games left to play, Virginia’s fate rests in the hands of the selection committee. Baseball America left UVA out of our latest projected field.
Notre Dame (32-21, 14-16; RPI: 46; SOS: 47)
We thought Notre Dame’s series win at Miami would be enough to secure its spot in the tournament. And maybe it still will be. But the Irish’s ACC Tournament loss to Boston College added uncertainty to an already-fragile case. Their solid RPI and strong finish to the regular season keep them in the mix—BA has them among the final teams in—but one stolen bid elsewhere might be enough to knock them out.
Big 12
The Big 12’s debut as an expanded league has delivered on drama, with seven teams already locked into the NCAA Tournament and one more on the bubble. The story now shifts to Arizona State, which has played itself squarely onto the bubble and may need help elsewhere to hear its name called on Selection Monday.
Locks: Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia
Should be in: Arizona State
Work to do: None
Arizona State (35-22, 18-12; RPI: 48; SOS: 43)
The Sun Devils’ late-season unraveling continued with a one-and-done performance in the Big 12 Tournament. Their loss to BYU dropped them to No. 48 in RPI, a precarious position for an at-large hopeful. We’ve said before that ASU’s 18 conference wins should be enough to get it across the finish line, but that’s less certain than ever. The Sun Devils are now firmly in wait-and-see mode and are at risk of a fourth-straight tournament miss, which would be unprecedented for the university.
Big Ten
The Big Ten hasn’t produced much at-large intrigue this spring, with just three teams—Oregon, UCLA and USC—locked into the NCAA Tournament and only one more still in the hunt. Iowa’s regular-season conference win total gave it life, but weak metrics have kept it outside the projected field. A deep tournament run is likely the only way the Hawkeyes can play their way in.
Locks: Oregon, UCLA, USC
Should be in: None
Work to do: Iowa
Iowa (31-20-1, 21-9; RPI: 73; SOS: 97)
Iowa opened Big Ten Tournament play with a much-needed win over Rutgers and faces Indiana next in another must-win matchup. At present, the Hawkeyes’ at-large hopes remain slim due to poor metrics across the board. A run to the Big Ten championship could change the narrative and give the selection committee reason to overlook the resume’s blemishes.
SEC
There’s been no change in the SEC outlook. Baseball America still views the same 13 teams as locks for the NCAA Tournament that it did in our last update. The only remaining bubble team is Texas A&M, which will need a deep SEC Tournament run to force its way into the conversation.
Locks: Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt
Should be in: None
Work to do: Texas A&M
Texas A&M (29-25, 11-19; RPI: 52; SOS: 11)
The Aggies opened SEC Tournament play with a dominant 9-0 win over Mississippi State but still have work to do. As this update is being written, A&M is taking on Auburn in a must-win game that won’t be made any easier with star outfielder Jace LaViolette sidelined by an apparent hand injury. Even with a win, the Aggies likely need to string together at least one more victory to merit serious at-large consideration. The preseason title favorites still have a chance, but it’s a narrow.
Sun Belt
The Sun Belt is trending toward a three-bid league, with two teams locked in and Troy still hanging on the bubble. No other teams appear in serious at-large contention, making each result in Montgomery critical for the Trojans’ hopes.
Locks: Coastal Carolina, Southern Miss
Should be in: None
Work to do: Troy
Troy (38-20, 18-12; RPI 44; SOS: 69)
An opening-round loss to Old Dominion pushed Troy to the back of the bubble and we listed it as the second-to-last team in the field in our latest projection. But a win over Texas State on Thursday kept the Trojans alive in the Sun Belt title race. One more win could go a long way toward giving them some much-needed breathing room ahead of Selection Monday.
AAC
Locks: UTSA
Should be in: None
Work to do: Tulane, Charlotte, East Carolina, FAU, South Florida
This is a one-bid league unless UTSA fails to win the conference tournament—plain and simple. The Roadrunners are safely in the NCAA Tournament, regardless, but no other AAC team has a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid without winning the auto bid. Tulane, Charlotte, East Carolina, FAU and South Florida all remain alive, but only one will punch a ticket unless someone knocks off the Roadrunners.
Big East
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Connecticut, Creighton, Xavier
This remains a tight, three-team race for what’s likely just one or two NCAA Tournament bids. Connecticut, Creighton and Xavier are all in the mix, with Baseball America’s most recent projection including both UConn and Xavier—the latter as an at-large. The final outcome hinges entirely on how the rest of the Big East Tournament unfolds. Every game from here on out will help shape the bubble.
Big West
Locks: UC Irvine
Should be in: None
Work to do: Cal Poly, Hawaii, Cal State Fullerton
The Big West is on track to be either a one- or two-bid league, with UC Irvine locked into the NCAA Tournament field regardless of how the conference tournament plays out. If the Anteaters win the league’s automatic bid, they’ll likely be the conference’s lone representative. But if a team like Cal Poly or Hawaii claims the title, the Big West becomes a two-bid league. Cal Poly is the most likely spoiler after a strong regular season, while Hawaii captured attention by eliminating UCSB.
Conference USA
Locks: Dallas Baptist
Should be in: None
Work to do: Western Kentucky
This still projects as a one-bid league, with Dallas Baptist locked in and favored to win the automatic bid. But Western Kentucky is clinging to at-large hopes after an opening-round win over New Mexico State on Wednesday. To keep those hopes alive, the Hilltoppers must beat FIU—especially with their RPI hovering just inside the top 50. Any stumble likely ends their chances.
Southland Conference
Locks: Houston Christian OR New Orleans
Should be in: None
Work to do: UTRGV
While Houston Christian and New Orleans open championship series play on Thursday to decide who claims the league’s automatic bid, Baseball America remains cautiously optimistic about UTRGV’s at-large chances thanks to its No. 41 RPI and nine combined Quadrant 1 and 2 wins. But the Vaqueros are firmly on the bubble. With no more games to play, they’ll be sweating out Selection Monday as results elsewhere shape their fate. For now, we project them as one of the final teams in the field.
Final Stock Report
Risers
- Oklahoma State (Big 12): Moved up from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Lock’
- Hawaii (Big West): Added to ‘Work to do’
Fallers
- Virginia (ACC): Dropped from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Work to do’
- Notre Dame (ACC): Dropped from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Work to do’
- Troy (Sun Belt): Dropped from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Work to do’
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