College Baseball NCAA Tournament Odds For Oklahoma, Oregon & Other Power Conference Newcomers


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Kyson Witherspoon (Brian Westerholt/Sports On Film)

College athletics’ constantly shifting landscape this offseason made it so that athletes and coaches weren’t the only ones who found new homes. A reasonably large number of schools from across the country left their previous conferences to join new ones ahead of the 2024-25 academic year.

Eleven programs—Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Oklahoma, Oregon, Stanford, Texas, UCLA, USC, Utah, and Washington—shuffled into new Power 4 conferences, marking one of the most significant realignments in recent history.

As these teams settle into their new leagues, early performances have offered a glimpse into how well they are adjusting to the heightened competition and travel demands that come with such changes.

With five weeks of the regular season already behind us, we’re checking in on Power 4 conference newcomers, assessing their NCAA Tournament odds and breaking down standout performances. Teams are listed alphabetically.

Arizona

New conference: Big 12
Previous conference: Pac 12
Record: 16-4; 3-0 Big 12
Ranking: No. 23

Ranked No. 22 in Baseball America’s Preseason Top 25, Arizona got off to a rocky start this season, dropping each of its first three matchups and immediately falling out of the rankings. However, the Wildcats have bounced back ferociously, securing wins in 16 of their next 17 games, including victories against then-No. 1 Texas A&M, then-No. 15 Mississippi State and three games against Cincinnati in their Big 12 opener.

As of March 19, outfielder and first-round hopeful Brendan Summerhill is batting .427 with two home runs, six triples, four doubles and 22 RBIs while fellow outfielder Aaron Walton is batting .391 with a pair of homers, a triple, six doubles, 15 RBIs and a team-best 26 runs scored. On the mound, sophomore righty Collin McKinney (1.29 ERA, 21 strikeouts, 11 walks, 21 innings) and freshman righty Smith Bailey (1.80 ERA, 25 strikeouts, nine walks, 25 innings) have been superb.

With projected conference winner Oklahoma State (10-8; 0-1 Big 12) looking like a shell of itself at this point, Arizona has as good a chance as any to win the Big 12 and is a sure bet to make this year’s NCAA Tournament, barring something completely unforeseen.

Arizona State

New conference: Big 12
Previous conference: Pac 12
Record: 14-7; 2-1 Big 12
Ranking: NR

After three straight tournament misses to open his tenure in Tempe—marking Arizona State’s longest postseason drought since it became a Division I program in the 1950s_head coach Willie Bloomquist finds himself in an “if not now then when” situation. That’s especially so with four of the Big 12’s top 10 preseason 2025 draft prospects on his roster—lefthander Ben Jacobs and outfielders Brandon ComptonKien Vu and Isaiah Jackson.

The Sun Devils are off to a solid start this year with series victories in four of five weekends, including their Big 12 opener against TCU in which they took two of three games. Vu continues to perform very well with a .333 batting average, six homers and 10 stolen bases (both team highs) plus six doubles and 16 RBIs. Compton has also boosted his draft stock, batting .298 with four home runs, eight doubles and 19 RBIs.

BA included the Sun Devils as a No. 3 seed in our Preseason Field of 64 and would likely do so again now, though they look more like a bubble team than surefire at-large bid. Pitching has plagued ASU throughout Bloomquist’s tenure and the group carries a 4.91 ERA into the second week of conference play. It will be something to monitor closely as their postseason candidacy is evaluated.

Cal

New conference: ACC
Previous conference: Pac 12
Record: 10-10; 2-4 ACC
Ranking: NR

Despite several individual standouts through five week’s, Cal’s inconsistency as a team has severely limited its overall success. The group owns a 10-10 overall record and 2-4 mark in conference play and just one series victory in five weekend opportunities. That showing aligns with BA’s preseason projection that the Golden Bears would finish 12th in the 16-team ACC.

Junior infielder Cade Campbell is batting .417 with six home runs, 24 RBIs and 20 runs, all of which are team highs. Starting pitchers Gavin Eddy and Austin Turkington have impressed with 1.52 and 3.38 ERAs, respectively, through five rotation turns.

Cal would need to demonstrate significant improvement in short order to start contending with the top of its loaded conference. Unless that happens, BA evaluates the Golden Bears’ postseason odds to be quite low.

Oklahoma

New conference: SEC
Previous conference: Big 12
Record: 18-2; 2-1 SEC
Ranking: No. 9

Few teams have seen their stock soar like Oklahoma, which opened its season unranked and has since climbed into the top 10 thanks to an 18-2 overall record, which includes a 2-1 mark against ranked opponents.

Junior righty Kyson Witherspoon has looked like a true ace and first-rounder with a 1.91 ERA, 47 strikeouts and just six walks in 28.1 innings. Six different qualified Oklahoma hitters are batting over .300.

The Sooners get on base at a high clip and run well, while their pitching has proven reasonably steady. It would be a shock if they missed the postseason and might even be surprising if they don’t host their own regional.

Oregon

New conference: Big Ten
Previous conference: Pac 12
Record: 17-4; 5-1 Big Ten
Ranking: No. 13

Oregon head coach Mark Wasikowski grew the Ducks into a giant in the Pac-12, leading the program to four-straight regionals, including a program-first two-straight super regionals in 2023 and 2024. Wasikowski before the season told Baseball America that his current team had a chance to be his best, praise it’s lived up to thus far.

The Ducks are 17-4 overall and opened Big Ten play with five wins in six outings, success that speaks to the opportunity they have to claim a conference title. Eight of Oregon’s 10 main offensive contributors are batting over .300 this year, including outfielder Mason Neville, who is slashing .329/.416/.780 with 10 home runs and 23 RBIs. On the mound, righty Collin Clarke has impressed with a 2.08 ERA in 30.1 innings.

Oregon has the makeup of a regional host.

Stanford

New conference: ACC
Previous conference: Pac 12
Record: 15-4; 5-1 ACC
Ranking: No. 14

While its West Coast-based conference-mate, Cal, appears to still be acclimating to life in the ACC, No. 14 Stanford has taken its new situation by storm, winning five of its first six league games to improve to 15-4 on the year.

The Cardinal are hitting .311 as a team and averaging 7.5 runs per game while their pitchers have limited opponents to a .237 average. Righty Matt Scott, one of the best college arms in this year’s draft, owns a 3.00 ERA in five Friday night starts.

After posting a rare losing record last year, Stanford appears to be back in contention mode and already approaching a top 10 ranking. The Cardinal were picked as an Omaha sleeper by BA before the season. They look like much more of an obvious pick now.

Texas

New conference: SEC
Previous conference: Big 12
Record: 17-2; 3-0 SEC
Ranking: No. 5

It’s been full steam ahead for the Longhorns in 2025, as they’ve lost just two of their first 19 games and began play in their new conference with a sweep of then-No. 22 Mississippi State.

Arizona State transfer second baseman Ethan Mendoza is batting .406 with four home runs, three triples and 16 RBIs over 69 at-bats and catcher Ryan Galvan leads the team with seven home runs and 19 RBIs. On the mound, righty Luke Harrison (2.08 ERA in 21.2 innings) and lefty Jared Spencer (2.36 ERA in 26.2 innings) have led the charge for a team that currently owns a 3.22 ERA.

The Longhorns are set to take on No. 2 LSU in a three-game series starting Friday in Austin. If they win and get some help from No. 10 Alabama—which is facing No. 1 Tennessee—they could be in the conversation to take over the No. 1 spot as soon as next week.

UCLA

New conference: Big Ten
Previous conference: Pac 12
Record: 16-4; 5-1 Big Ten
Ranking: NR

Longtime UCLA head coach John Savage told Baseball America before the season that his 2025 roster had the tools to break the Bruins out of their two-year NCAA Tournament drought. While it’s still early, UCLA has backed up those claims with a 16-4 overall record, 5-1 mark in league play and 1-0 record against ranked opponents.

Shortstop Roch Cholowsky and first baseman Mulivai Levu are tied for the team lead with seven home runs, while righty Wylan Moss paces the Bruins’ qualified pitchers in ERA (2.70).

The Big Ten will more than likely be a multi-bid conference this season, and the Bruins should be among the teams in contention to snag one. They’re also one of the closest unranked teams to the Top 25 and would soon gain entry with continued success.

USC

New conference: Big Ten
Previous conference: Pac 12
Record: 12-8; 2-4 Big Ten
Ranking: NR

The Trojans had the early makings of a strong resume when they won nine of their first 11 games, including two over ranked opponents. However, they’ve since gone just 3-6, including a 2-4 start to Big Ten play.

Despite its recent woes, USC still boasts a handful of impressive performers, headlined by two-way player Ethan Hedges, who leads qualified hitters in batting average (.368), home runs (six), RBIs (23) and saves (six). Junior lefty Caden Hunter leads the Trojans’ qualified pitchers in ERA (2.77) and strikeouts (31).

USC was the last team in on BA Preseason Field of 64. Early returns would suggest the Trojans are probably on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment with the talent to improve.

Utah

New conference: Big 12
Previous conference: Pac 12
Record: 11-8; 0-3 Big 12
Ranking: NR

After a nice 11-3 run to open the season, the Utes have lost five straight, including three to conference foe Kansas State on the road.

Shortstop Core Jackson has performed exceptionally well thus far, batting .421 with two home runs, six doubles, a triple, seven stolen bases and 16 RBIs. Colter McAnelly has impressed on the mound with a 2.78 ERA and 33 strikeouts to seven walks in 32.1 innings. Jackson was named the top player in Utah before the season while McAnelly was tabbed the top active Division I player from Wyoming.

Utah narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament last year and would likely have to claw for one of the final spots out of a competitive Big 12 to make the bracket for the first time since 2016.

Washington

New conference: Big Ten
Previous conference: Pac 12
Record: 8-13; 2-1 Big Ten
Ranking: NR

It’s been a rough go for the Huskies so far this season, as they’ve lost 13 of their first 21 games, including one to Division III Pacific Lutheran on March 18.

Washington is batting .260 as a team and owns a 5.77 ERA, though it should be noted that righty Jackson Thomas has performed very well with a 2.42 ERA in 22.1 innings.

While the Huskies emerged victorious in their first taste of Big Ten action, BA evaluates them to be an unlikely tournament candidate.

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