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Roughly two-thirds of the college baseball regular season are in the books, providing a large enough sample for metrics like RPI to stabilize and start influencing postseason projections.
With that in mind, we’re taking a closer look at some of the notable RPI risers and fallers following Week 10 and how that movement could impact each team’s postseason resume.
Notable RPI Risers
Iowa
- Record: 25-11; 17-4 Big Ten
- RPI (April 20): 57
- RPI change since April 13: +36
The Hawkeyes entered Week 10 in one of the most unique situations in the country. Despite dominating the Big Ten at 14-4, their at-large prospects looked shaky due to an RPI of 93 and a strength of schedule that ranked outside the top 150 nationally.
They still haven’t played a Quadrant 1 opponent as of April 21, but their RPI is now much more reflective of an automatic qualifier. After sweeping a strong Michigan team, Iowa jumped 36 spots to No. 57 and improved to 17-4 in the Big Ten. Between that surge and its commanding conference record, Iowa is now a far more comfortable tournament projection in what’s shaping up to be a three-to-five bid Big Ten.
Iowa’s success also appears reasonably sustainable. The Hawkeyes rank 14th nationally in ERA and 27th in scoring, providing the type of balance that should continue to play well in what is the least-challenging of the Power 4 conferences.
Miami
- Record: 24-17; 9-9 ACC
- RPI (April 20): 36
- RPI change since April 13: +29
The Hurricanes appeared destined for another tournament miss after losing five-straight weekend series from the final week of February through all of March. But they’ve turned things around sharply, going 9-3 since April 1, highlighted by a Week 10 sweep of then-No. 13 Georgia Tech for their loudest performance of the year.
That series win vaulted Miami to No. 36 in RPI, a 29-spot improvement in a week, and brought it back to 9-9 in the ACC. If the season ended today, both marks would almost certainly be enough to secure a spot in the Field of 64.
The stretch ahead looks favorable enough for Miami to sustain its momentum. It will travel to Boston College (currently 9-12 in the ACC) in Week 11 before returning home for its toughest remaining weekend series—a three-game set against NC State. The Canes then close the regular season with a road trip to Virginia and a home series against Notre Dame.
Miami has missed the tournament in back-to-back years just once (2017-18) since 1971 and now appears well-positioned to avoid doing so twice.
Northeastern
- Record: 30-9; 13-2 CAA
- RPI (April 20): 35
- RPI change since April 13: +21
There’s a common notion in college baseball that midweek matchups matter less. And while that holds true for Power 4 teams often playing down in competition, it’s a different story for mid and low majors. For teams like Northeastern, midweek games can offer critical opportunities to punch up a weight class.
The Huskies this week took advantage of that dynamic when they swept a two-game midweek series against Kansas State, resulting in a 21-spot climb into the top 40 in the RPI that has strengthened their postseason outlook considerably.
Northeastern is the clear favorite to claim the CAA’s automatic bid, but its improved RPI provides a much sturdier safety net should it stumble in conference tournament play and need to compete for an at-large berth. The Huskies’ success positions the CAA well for a potential multi-bid outcome if needed.
Central Florida
- Record: 22-17; 6-12 Big 12
- RPI (April 20): 56
- RPI change since April 13: +21
Central Florida is a great example of a team that gave itself a major RPI boost but still has plenty of work to do elsewhere to build a postseason resume strong enough to avoid the bubble. The Golden Knights took two of three from TCU over the weekend in Orlando, improving to 6-4 in Quadrant 1 games and climbing 21 spots in RPI.
The more pressing issue is league play. UCF currently sits at 6-12 in the Big 12, a record that will need to improve considerably over the next four weekends to stay in the at-large conversation.
If the Golden Knights can continue to win and creep closer to .500 in conference play, their RPI could do a lot of heavy lifting. Kansas (No. 29) and Cincinnati (No. 61) are both on the cusp of qualifying as Quadrant 1 opponents, and South Florida (No. 74) isn’t far off either. If any of those teams climb into Quadrant 1 range, it would help clean up UCF’s currently unsightly 4-8 record against Quadrant 2 opponents and strengthen the overall profile.
As it stands, UCF is squarely on the bubble. But if it finishes strong, it could end up with one of the more compelling at-large cases.
Texas A&M
- Record: 23-16; 8-10 SEC
- RPI (April 20): 37
- RPI change since April 13: +12
Two weeks ago, Texas A&M was included in my Eight for Omaha projection. It was a move that drew understandable criticism, as the Aggies, despite being fresh off a series win over then-No. 1 Tennessee, sat at just 3-9 in SEC play. At the time, it looked like a classic case of prisoner-of-the-moment optimism.
But the Aggies have since validated that early confidence with two more series wins: a sweep of South Carolina capped by a walk-off grand slam and a series victory against then-No. 4 Arkansas. Now sitting at 8-10 in the SEC and No. 37 in RPI, Texas A&M’s resume looks safely in at-large territory and could quickly start trending toward hosting range with a win over No. 1 Texas this weekend in Austin.
One of the most talented teams in college baseball is finally starting to look the part. If the Aggies can sustain this momentum, they’re as dangerous as anyone.
Kentucky
- Record: 22-15; 8-10 SEC
- RPI (April 20): 30
- RPI change since April 13: +11
Kentucky spent the first half of SEC play tantalizingly close to several big series wins but too often came up a few runs short, causing its RPI and conference standing to sputter. But head coach Nick Mingione’s tournament-caliber roster corrected course to open the second half, taking two of three from then-No. 2 Tennessee and sparking an 11-spot jump in RPI.
Like Texas A&M, Kentucky now has a clear path to avoid the bubble altogether. A mix of more winnable series (home against South Carolina, road at Mississippi State) and resume boosters (home against Oklahoma, road at Vanderbilt) gives the Wildcats ample opportunity to firm up their reasonably-solid postseason standing.
Florida
- Record: 27-15; 6-12 SEC
- RPI (April 20): 23
- RPI change since April 13: +8
For the second straight year, Florida has played itself into a precarious spot heading toward Selection Sunday. The Gators should finish with a better overall record than last year, when they slipped into the tournament two games above .500, but they’ll need to fight hard to get back to 13 SEC wins like they did in 2024.
No SEC team has reached the NCAA Tournament with 12 or fewer league wins, but Florida’s resume in a heightened SEC could force a reevaluation. The Gators boast a top 25 RPI, the No. 5 strength of schedule nationally and have opportunities left to close strong thanks to home series against Arkansas and Alabama and road series at South Carolina and Texas.
Could this be the year a 12-win SEC team makes it in as a headache of a No. 3 seed? If so, Florida might be the team that tests the selection committee’s limits.
West Virginia
- Record: 34-4; 13-3 Big 12
- RPI (April 20): 14
- RPI change since April 13: +8
West Virginia hasn’t played the toughest schedule this year (No. 134 in strength), but its dominance has been overpowering enough to skyrocket its RPI to No. 14 following its 14th straight win—a sweep of at-large contender Cincinnati.
The boost does a lot for West Virginia’s hosting chances, which looked much more precarious just a week ago. At this rate, the Mountaineers are likely to stay home for at least the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Notable RPI Fallers
Stanford
- Record: 19-17, 6-15 ACC
- RPI (April 20): 49
- RPI change since April 13: -21
The wheels have fallen off a once-promising season for Stanford, which climbed as high as No. 14 in the Top 25 before a steep descent into the cellar of the ACC standings. The Cardinal are just 1-14 over their last five weekend series, including a Week 10 home sweep at the hands of Notre Dame.
Barring a miraculous turnaround, Stanford appears headed for a second straight miss of the NCAA Tournament—a rarity under head coach David Esquer, whose team is now barely inside the top 50 in RPI.
Oklahoma State
- Record: 17-19; 6-9 Big 12
- RPI (April 20): 68
- RPI change since April 13: -20
Oklahoma State’s murky postseason outlook became a little clearer in Week 10—but not for the right reasons. The Cowboys were crushed in a midweek matchup against Oklahoma and dropped one of two to Houston over the weekend, moving to 9-4 in Quadrant 4 games.
Once ranked 13th in the Baseball America Top 25, Oklahoma State is now struggling just to climb back above .500. The Cowboys have slipped outside the top 65 in RPI, hold a 3-11 record against Quadrant 1 opponents and are just 14-8 against Quadrants 2 and 3. Like Stanford, they’ll need a significant turnaround over the final month to re-enter the at-large conversation.
Arizona State
- Record: 25-15; 11-7 Big 12
- RPI (April 20): 48
- RPI change since April 13: -17
Arizona State suffered two costly losses in Week 10—one in a midweek game at Purdue and another in its series finale against Texas Tech—which dropped it 17 spots to No. 48 in the RPI. If the season ended today, Willie Bloomquist’s Sun Devil team would likely make the tournament, but with four weekends left, there’s little margin for error to stay there.
The Sun Devils are 13-13 against Quadrant 1-3 opponents, with eight of those losses coming against Quadrant 2 and 3 teams. Left on the schedule are tricky matchups with BYU and Baylor, teams that have proven capable of giving opponents trouble even if their metrics don’t fully reflect it.
If ASU misses the tournament again this year, it would extend Bloomquist’s postseason drought to four years—the longest in school history—and raise real questions about whether the program will look to freshen up its leadership. Bloomquist, a former star for the Sun Devils in the late 90s, has so far been unable to return the program to its traditional standard.
Michigan
- Record: 23-17; 8-10 Big Ten
- RPI (April 20): 62
- RPI change since April 13: -16
Michigan was swept by Big Ten leader Iowa in Week 10, prompting a sizable 16-spot tumble in the RPI. Baseball America included the Hawkeyes in its latest projected Field of 64 as one of the last four teams in—a spot Michigan now finds itself much closer to after the sweep.
With four weekends remaining, the Wolverines have zero remaining Quadrant 1 games on their schedule and little room for error.
McNeese State
- Record: 26-7; 16-5 Southland
- RPI (April 20): 38
- RPI change since April 13: -15
Like Arizona State, if the season ended today, McNeese would likely be in the tournament field—potentially along with UTRGV—in what would mark a rare two-bid year for the Southland Conference.
The Cowboys will have to be careful, though. Every loss, like the one they suffered in Week 10 against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, carries outsized weight.
With a program-best overall record, the second-best mark in league play and a top 40 RPI, McNeese remains in reasonably-safe territory. But it can’t afford too many more missteps without jeopardizing its fragile national standing out of a low-major league.
Georgia Tech
- Record: 29-11; 14-7 ACC
- RPI (April 20): 27
- RPI change since April 13: -14
Georgia Tech did its conference a huge favor in Week 10 by getting swept at Miami, a result that boosted the Hurricanes into the top 40 of the RPI and likely into the tournament field, as outlined above.
The series did no favors, however, for the Yellow Jackets themselves. The sweep dropped Georgia Tech 14 spots in RPI and, for now, took it out of the hosting conversation, especially with teams like Vanderbilt surging into the mix.
Resume-building chances won’t come until the final two weekends when the Yellow Jackets host Louisville and travel to Duke for a pair of Quadrant 1 series. In the meantime, they’ll need to handle business against Virginia and Western Carolina to avoid slipping further.
Ole Miss
- Record: 28-12; 10-8 SEC
- RPI (April 20): 22
- RPI change since April 13: -10
Ole Miss finds itself in a similar position to Georgia Tech after stumbling to a Quadrant 3 midweek loss against Little Rock then dropping a weekend series to a struggling South Carolina team that had only two SEC wins entering the matchup.
The Rebels are still firmly in the postseason picture, but now more as an at-large No. 2 seed than a host. They’ll need to stabilize quickly over the final four weeks to avoid further slippage. A critical home series against Vanderbilt this weekend offers a chance to get back on track in a big way.
Virginia
- Record: 20-15; 9-9 ACC
- RPI (April 20): 95
- RPI change since April 13: -8
Virginia needs wins—and fast—if it hopes to secure a spot in the Field of 64. Despite starting the year ranked No. 5 nationally, the Cavaliers now sit with a 20-15 overall record, a 9-9 mark in ACC play and the No. 92 strength of schedule—metrics that place them on the bubble at best and more likely on the wrong side of it.
There’s still a path forward, however. Remaining weekend series against Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia Tech offer critical resume-building opportunities if the Cavaliers can capitalize.
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