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Week 12 was one of the most interesting this season in terms of its impact on the postseason picture, as several bubble teams made positive moves and, in some cases, pushed fellow Power 4 squads out of the projected tournament field.
Below is Baseball America’s latest Bubble Watch, in which we take a closer look at those teams vying for at-large bids. Conferences that are projected to occupy three or more bids are listed first, followed by teams pushing to give their leagues a second entry. You can see yesterday’s projected Field of 64 here.
ACC
There’s more bubble drama in the ACC now than there was a week ago. Projected to be a 10-bid conference last week, the ACC experienced a negative shift in Week 12 after Virginia Tech was swept on the road at Pitt, which caused its RPI to drop outside the top 50 and a move to the wrong side of the bubble. Miami made the most positive jump when it took both games in a rain-shortened series against NC State, which moved it off the bubble completely and into our lock category. Notre Dame also made a positive move to stay on the bubble but in much closer range of an at-large bid. Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State are all in hosting positions at the moment, with Miami, NC State, Louisville, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest still in the hunt to join them. All eight are safely in the field.
Locks: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Should be in: Duke
Work to do: Virginia, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame
Duke (33-15, 14-10; RPI: 42; SOS: 55)
Duke’s last three games have been of the Quadrant 4 variety, stirring no change to its postseason resume. Like last week, the Blue Devils are effectively in with solid overall and conference win totals, which should be enough to overcome a thinner resume than in previous years. A weekend series against Clemson could help to push Duke completely off the bubble and into the lock category as well as potentially start a case for a two-seed.
Virginia Tech (27-22, 11-16; RPI: 52; SOS: 19)
We said last week that the Hokies had the weakest footing among the “should be in” group, and that reality is biting them hard. Virginia Tech was swept by Pitt on the road and bookended that series with losses to Liberty, dropping it to 7-14 since April 1. BA no longer has the Hokies in the field and views it as somewhat unlikely that they’ll change that with just one conference series remaining.
Virginia (27-16, 11-10; RPI: 68; SOS: 84)
The Cavaliers were idle on the weekend but still made quiet progress, jumping seven spots in the RPI standings. That alone makes a postseason bid feel more plausible than it did a week ago. But the true test comes this weekend when they host Miami in a series that could define their resume. Win it, and Virginia is right back in the mix.
Notre Dame (26-19, 12-15; RPI: 50; SOS: 50)
Look out—here come the Irish. A massive series win over Louisville has rekindled their at-large hopes. Notre Dame now faces Bowling Green in a must-win series before a high-stakes road finale at Miami. If the Irish can take care of business over the next two weekends, they’ll have a legitimate case to return to the field, which looked well out of reach after a 4-14 start to league play.
Big 12
The Big 12 remains on pace to push at least six teams into the NCAA Tournament, with a clear top four already locked in and three others building increasingly solid cases. Arizona State has one of the best conference records in the league, while Cincinnati has surged into the top 40 in RPI. Kansas State, however, still has work to do down the stretch.
Locks: Arizona, Kansas, TCU, West Virginia
Should be in: Arizona State, Kansas State, Cincinnati
Arizona State (32-17, 16-8; RPI: 40; SOS: 47)
The Sun Devils did their job last weekend, taking two of three from Baylor to continue climbing. At 16-8 in the Big 12, ASU is nearing lock status—falling short would now be a major surprise. Still, they’ll want to close the regular season strong against Houston and Oklahoma State to avoid leaving the door open.
Kansas State (28-20, 14-10; RPI: 44; SOS: 51)
The Wildcats held serve by winning their series against BYU, but their resume still isn’t airtight. With modest metrics across the board, the Wildcats will likely need to find wins against West Virginia and Cincinnati in the final two weekends to avoid sweating it out on Selection Monday. Lose both series, and they could be in trouble.
Cincinnati (28-20, 13-11; RPI: 39; SOS: 31)
The Bearcats made a big statement by dismantling Kansas and jumping into the top 40 in RPI. That strong showing pushed them up to “should be in” status. They now sit ahead of both ASU and Kansas State in the RPI and would likely be in the field today. The margin for error remains thin, but Cincinnati’s odds have taken a clear upward turn.
Big Ten
The Big Ten hasn’t been a perennial power in recent years, but it could send multiple teams to regionals this season—and potentially one with hosting aspirations. Oregon, UCLA and USC are all safely in, while Iowa’s strange but dominant profile keeps it in strong position. Michigan still has work to do, but hasn’t been eliminated yet.
Lock: Oregon, UCLA, USC
Should be in: Iowa
Work to do: Michigan
Iowa (29-15, 21-6; RPI: 67; SOS: 153)
The Hawkeyes stumbled in Week 12, dropping a midweek matchup to Illinois State and losing a series to Washington. While their RPI actually ticked up slightly, the resume remains one of the strangest in the country: elite conference record, but weak schedule strength and shaky metrics. Iowa can’t afford another misstep, especially with Oregon State and Oregon looming. Conference wins could still be enough, but there’s zero margin left.
Michigan (31-17, 14-10; RPI: 53; SOS: 74)
The Wolverines picked up four straight wins last week, but all came against Quadrant 4 competition. That helped pad their record but did little for the metrics. At this stage, Michigan is simply holding serve. With a 14-10 conference mark and series remaining against Nebraska and Indiana, the path is clear: win both to stay in the at-large conversation. Anything less could mean relying on a deep Big Ten Tournament run.
SEC
The SEC is still flexing its depth, with a staggering 11 teams already locked into the NCAA Tournament and at least three more fighting to join them. Florida, Texas A&M and Mississippi State are all on the verge of locking up bids, while Kentucky is trending in the wrong direction after a disastrous weekend. At this rate, the league could threaten its own record for bids if the bubble swings kindly.
Locks: Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Should be in: Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State
Work to do: Kentucky
Florida (33-17, 11-13; RPI: 18; SOS: 5)
Florida’s resurgence has been one of the stories of the season. After starting 1-11 in SEC play, the Gators have now won four straight conference series—including a road sweep of South Carolina—and are 12-2 over their last 14 games. With a top 20 RPI and top five strength of schedule, Florida is teetering on the edge of host contention. A road series at Texas this weekend will be telling. The Gators are nearly a lock but still need a couple more wins to feel secure.
Mississippi State (29-19, 10-14; RPI: 35; SOS: 12)
Mississippi State swept Kentucky in its first weekend under interim head coach Justin Parker, giving its postseason hopes a massive boost. The Bulldogs are now at 10 conference wins and have a series against Ole Miss ahead before closing out the regular season with a Missouri squad that’s winless in SEC play. Even if they drop the series to Ole Miss, a strong finish should be enough to secure a spot in the field. Their metrics and schedule say they belong.
Texas A&M (27-20, 10-14; RPI: 36; SOS: 4)
The Aggies picked up a crucial series win over LSU to reach 10 SEC wins and are now in strong position. With Missouri up next, A&M has a golden opportunity to boost its win total to 13, which, paired with a top five strength of schedule, should more than suffice. They aren’t a lock quite yet due to their conference record, but they’re close.
Kentucky (25-20, 10-14; RPI: 41; SOS: 10)
No team took a harder hit in Week 12 than Kentucky, which fell from “lock” to “work to do” after getting swept by Mississippi State. The Wildcats now find themselves outside the top 40 in RPI and will need to win at least three of their final six SEC games—against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt—to feel good. With two tough series ahead, they’re firmly on the bubble. Baseball America’s most recent projection has them out.
Sun Belt
Nothing has changed in the Sun Belt since last week—and that’s not a bad thing. The top tier remains steady, and there’s still no bubble movement behind it. Coastal Carolina, Troy and Southern Miss are all firmly locked into the NCAA Tournament. Barring a surprise conference tournament run from a lower seed, this will be a three-bid league.
Locks: Coastal Carolina, Troy, Southern Miss
Should be in: None
Work to do: None
Others To follow
American
Lock: UTSA
Work to do: Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, East Carolina
UTSA is not only a lock for the NCAA Tournament but, with the No. 20 RPI as of May 8, the Roadrunners have an outside shot at hosting a regional if they can finish strong and get some help from other teams. The rest of the American bears watching because it presents a real at-large wrinkle: If anyone other than UTSA wins the conference tournament, this becomes a two-bid league. Florida Atlantic, with the No. 55 RPI, is the most likely spoiler, but Charlotte and East Carolina both have the talent to make a surprise run.
Big East
Should be in: Connecticut
Work to do: Creighton, Xavier
Xavier’s postseason stock dipped after a rough 2-2 week that included losses to Miami (OH) and Seton Hall, sending the Musketeers tumbling to No. 45 in RPI. The good news? They still have a chance to right the ship with upcoming series against Creighton and Penn State. But the margin for error has shrunk considerably. For now, they remain among Baseball America’s last teams in the field.
The Bluejays are a step behind Xavier in terms of metrics but still have a chance to play their way in—starting with a head-to-head opportunity against the Musketeers. Creighton’s overall profile still lacks punch right now.
Conference USA
Lock: Dallas Baptist
Should be in: None
Work to do: Western Kentucky, Kennesaw State
Western Kentucky and Kennesaw State took care of business last week, but it didn’t move the needle much in the bubble picture. The Hilltoppers remain the closest to at-large consideration with a 38-10 overall record, a 14-7 league mark and the No. 46 RPI, while Kennesaw State still has more work to do at 25-22 overall, 14-6 in conference and No. 54 in RPI. For now, Conference USA still looks like a one-bid league unless one of these two makes a convincing late push.
Southland Conference
Should be in: UTRGV
Work to do: McNeese, Lamar, Southeastern Louisiana
The Southland remains one of the most compelling conference in college baseball and has a real shot at producing multiple bids. UTRGV continues to be the league’s at-large candidate thanks to a top 35 RPI and strong position in the standings. If it finishes strong and doesn’t win the auto bid, it could still make the field. Southeastern Louisiana currently leads the league and looks poised to earn the automatic berth. For the Southland to send two teams, it will likely require a tournament champion other than UTRGV to emerge.
Final Stock Report
Risers
- Miami (ACC): Achieved lock status
- Notre Dave (ACC): Strengthened bid
- Cincinnati (Big 12): Moved up from ‘Work to do’ to ‘Should be in’
- Mississippi State (SEC): Moved up from ‘Work to do’ to ‘Should be in’
Fallers
- Virginia Tech (ACC): Moved down from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Work to do’
- Kentucky (SEC): Moved down from ‘Lock’ to ‘Work to do’
- Xavier (Big East): Moved down from ‘Should be in’ to ‘Work to do’
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