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Landon Beidelschies (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
It’s officially crunch time in college baseball.
There are just three regular-season series left, meaning the already-high stakes are only going to get higher. From this chair, it’s also the most fun time of year. Conference tournament play is around the corner with regionals starting soon thereafter. My best advice would be to enjoy it, because the next month-and-a-half will be a blur, and the season will end before we know it.
But enough of being a Debbie downer. We have another fun college baseball slate this weekend with postseason storylines abound.
Can Arkansas Right The Ship?
After ascending to as high as No. 1 in the Top 25, it’s been a frustrating past few weeks for Arkansas, which has lost each of its last three series. The Razorbacks first dropped a pair of one-run games at Georgia before back-to-back series losses against unranked opponents in Texas A&M and Florida. So, what’s gone wrong for coach Van Horn’s club?
Off the bat, the starting pitching has struggled. It’s been a tall task to pitch deep into games recently, and the rotation needs to return to its early-season form. There have been fewer struggles offensively, though there have been instances where the lineup has failed to string together timely hits and push runs across. While this stretch has certainly been a frustrating one, I’m not overly worried about the Razorbacks. They have plenty of depth on both sides of the baseball, and I foresee the lefthanded pitching duo of Landon Beidleschies and Zach Root returning to form.
The biggest difference between this year’s club and other recent Arkansas teams is its offensive firepower. As a team, the Razorbacks are hitting .320 and have a bevy of formidable options within their starting nine. Getting back on track this week will be easier said than done given the fact top-ranked Texas comes to town, though it wouldn’t shock me at all if Arkansas is able to win a pair of games. Talent aside, the Razorbacks are an impressive 27-3 at Baum-Walker Stadium, and there will most definitely be a trio of big-time crowds this weekend.
Arkansas’ road doesn’t get any easier after this weekend, as it travels to No. 2 LSU before hosting No. 7 Tennessee to close out the regular season. That’s about as tough a three-series stretch as one could design, but I think the Razorbacks will be up for the challenge. As it stands, they are comfortably in the hosting picture and are still in contention to earn a top-eight national seed.
How To Watch No. 1 Texas (38-5, 19-2 SEC) At No. 10 Arkansas (37-9, 14-7 SEC)
Tonight and tomorrow’s games will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2 and SEC Network, respectively, while Saturday’s series finale can be streamed via SEC Network+.
Miami Looks To Stay Hot
Following its April 2 loss to Florida International, Miami was a measly 15-15 overall and just 2-7 in the ACC. It looked dead in the water with its tournament hopes all but dashed. However, the Hurricanes have since flipped a switch. They’ve strung together four straight ACC series wins—headlined by a statement sweep of then-ranked Georgia Tech—and have gone 10-2 in conference play. Heading into this weekend’s series against similarly-hot No. 18 NC State, Miami is 27-18 overall and 12-9 in the ACC.
In our most recent Field of 64 projection, we had Miami as a No. 3 seed in the Tuscaloosa Regional. If it’s able to extend its conference series win streak to five this weekend, Miami would essentially clinch an at-large bid and jump to a No. 2 seed. The Hurricanes’ metrics are favorable, and right now they sit at 33 in RPI, boast a top 15 strength of schedule and have 15 total Quadrant 1 and 2 wins. The main area in which they’re lacking is Quadrant 1 wins—they only have three—but this weekend is a golden opportunity to increase that total. That’s no easy task given how the Wolfpack is playing right now—they’re fresh off a sweep of then-No. 2 Clemson, are in sole possession of first place in the ACC and are on track to host a regional—but the opportunity is there nonetheless.
Miami’s pitching staff, anchored by righthander Griffin Hugus, has been outstanding as of late, while its lineup has also upped its production. It’s a unit that’s led by corner infielder Daniel Cuvet, whose recent hot-hitting has rubbed off on others in the starting nine. The ‘Canes this weekend will look to capture some of their trademark “Mark Light Magic” and pick up their biggest series win yet.
How To Watch No. 18 NC State (30-13, 15-6 ACC) At Miami (27-18, 12-9 ACC)
All three games this weekend can be streamed via ACC Network Extra.
Speaking Of Underrated Teams…
How about Southern California? Crosstown rival No. 20 UCLA has deservedly gotten a ton of love, but the Trojans have been a bit overshadowed. They currently boast a 30-14 record (14-7 in Big Ten play) and have not lost a series since the second weekend in March. USC hasn’t exactly played the toughest schedule since then, but taking care of business on a consistent basis is difficult and the Trojans hav done exactly that.
Since that early March series loss to now-No. 12 Oregon, USC has won seven-straight series and enters this weekend on a seven-game winning streak. Looking at its tournament resume, it is safely an at-large team. Like Miami, it was a No. 3 seed in our most recent Field of 64, but the Trojans right now are closer to a two-seed than they are a three. They have a top 40 RPI (37), boast a top 70 strength of schedule and have 13 combined Quadrant 1 and 2 wins.
A series win this weekend would push the Trojans that much closer to the two-seed line and also give them at least two more Quadrant 1 victories. This weekend is USC’s last opportunity to put some meaningful points on the board given that its final two series are against lesser opponents in Michigan State and Washington. The Trojans’ lineup is led by the trio of Ethan Hedges, Brayden Dowd and Adrian Lopez, who have combined to drive in 112 runs, while Caden Aoki and Caden Hunter have been a steady rotation duo.
How To Watch No. 20 UCLA (33-11, 16-5 Big Ten) at Southern California (30-14, 14-7 Big Ten)
All three games this weekend can be streamed via Big Ten Network+ (subscription required).
Top 20 Teams Tango In Tallahassee
The biggest ACC series this weekend takes place in the Sunshine State, as No. 6 Clemson will square off against No. 19 Florida State. Both teams head into this weekend with a sour taste in their mouth. The Tigers last weekend were soundly swept at then-unranked NC State, while Florida State, who won game one of its series at then-No. 19 Louisville in emphatic fashion, proceeded to drop the next two games in equally convincing fashion.
While this weekend is intriguing given the caliber of the clubs, there are not make-or-break postseason stakes, as both the Tigers and Seminoles are comfortably hosts. However, as the No. 6 and No. 11 national seeds in this week’s Field of 64, a series win this weekend would go a long way towards either team’s top-eight national seed aspirations.
Clemson right now is in a dynamite spot, as it has the No. 8 in RPI, the No. 22 strength of schedule and an impressive 19 Quadrant 1 and 2 wins. Florida State is in a near-identical spot at No. 7 in RPI. The ‘Noles also have a top 30 strength of schedule and double-digit (10) Quadrant 1 wins. I alluded to it earlier, but whoever wins this weekend’s series appears destined to earn a national seed when all is said and done. While losing this series would further enhance either team’s very recent struggles—perhaps Clemson a little bit more than Florida State given the Tigers are 3-5 in their last eight games—whoever comes out on the wrong end this weekend will still be in a fine position to host.
How To Watch No. 6 Clemson (36-10, 13-8 ACC) At No. 19 Florida State (31-9, 12-6 ACC)
Friday and Sunday’s games can be streamed via ACC Network Extra, while Saturday’s game will be broadcast nationally on ACC Network.
SEC Roundup
No. 5 Auburn at No. 7 Tennessee is one of, if not the best individual series on this weekend’s slate. Outside of its sweep at top-ranked Texas, it’s been an excellent month of April for the Tigers, who have ascended inside the top five. The same can’t be said for Tennessee, which has dropped consecutive series. There’s zero reason for panic in Knoxville, however, and a marquee series win this weekend would help make up for the last two weeks. As far as the tournament goes, both teams have slam-dunk resumes to host.
No. 13 Ole Miss at No. 21 Oklahoma is another intriguing series. Both the Rebels and Sooners are on the outside looking in as far as hosting is concerned, though the former is closer than the latter. If Ole Miss is able to come away with a series victory, it would potentially play its way into a top 16 national seed in next week’s projected Field of 64. A series win for Oklahoma wouldn’t necessarily push it across the hosting line for next week, though it would certainly keep its hopes alive.
While Texas A&M is in a much better spot today than it was a month ago, there’s still work to be done to cement its at-large status. Over the next three weekends and the SEC tournament, the Aggies need to accumulate at least four conference wins. In addition to this weekend’s series against No. 2 LSU, A&M faces Missouri before closing out the regular season at No. 4 Georgia. Missouri has had a historically bad season, so it’s reasonable to project three victories next weekend. If that ends up being the case, the Aggies still need to take at least one game from either LSU or Georgia. While it’s not a given, I see them doing so and heading into postseason play as a No. 3 seed nobody wants to see in their regional.
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