Image credit:
Kade Anderson (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
The penultimate weekend of the regular season is upon us, which means time is running out for teams to cement their respective postseason status. Whether it’s fighting for a top-eight national seed or simply looking to stay on the right side of the bubble, there is plenty to play for. The best individual series of the weekend is undoubtedly No. 3 Arkansas at No. 6 LSU, as that’s the only top 10 series—and one of two top 15 series—on this weekend’s slate.
This Weekend’s Main Event
While this weekend is not as loaded as previous weeks, No. 3 Arkansas at No. 6 LSU is a series every college baseball fan should be locked into. While both teams are comfortably hosts, they’re each vying to earn a coveted top-eight national seed. As a quick refresher, if a team is a top-eight national seed, they have home field advantage until the College World Series, whereas a non-top eight national seed could have a road Super Regional.
Heading into this weekend, Arkansas is fresh off an emphatic sweep of then-No. 1 Texas and is the only 40-win team in the country. Last weekend’s sweep of the Longhorns was perhaps the most impressive series win in all of college baseball this season, and they’ll look to ride that momentum into Baton Rouge. The Razorbacks’ resume is fantastic. They’re a top five RPI team (4) with a top 25 strength of schedule and 11 Quadrant 1 wins. That’s about as good as it gets, and this weekend they’ll look to add another feather to their cap. Additionally, Arkansas is the only team outside of Texas who could take home the regular-season SEC title. It’s still two games back with two series left, so it won’t be easy—especially with this weekend’s series at LSU and next weekend’s series against No. 13 Tennessee—but crazier things have happened.
LSU has a top eight-seed resume of its own. In this week’s Field of 64, the Tigers were the No. 6 overall seed thanks to their No. 8 RPI of 8, top 30 strength of schedule and an impressive 17 Quadrant 1 and 2 wins. If LSU comes away with a series win, it would help the Tigers more than it would hurt the Razorbacks, and the two teams would more or less switch places next week as it pertains to the national seed hierarchy.
I’m most looking forward to the quality of pitching we’ll see this weekend. LSU will trot out National Pitcher of the Year candidate Kade Anderson (6-1, 3.57 ERA), Anthony Eyanson (7-2, 3.16 ERA)—who last weekend allowed just one run in a complete-game effort against Texas A&M—and prized freshman Casan Evans (3-0, 1.24 ERA). Arkansas will counter with the formidable lefthanded duo of Zach Root (6-3, 3.95 ERA)—who’s fresh-off the best start of his college career—and Landon Beidelschies (4-0, 4.65 ERA). There’s also righthander Gage Wood (1-0, 3.77 ERA), who is one of the more underrated arms in this year’s draft class. As far as picking a series winner, I give the slightest of edges to LSU.
How To Watch No. 3 Arkansas (40-9, 17-7 SEC) At No. 6 LSU (38-11, 15-9 SEC)
Tomorrow’s series opener can be streamed via SEC Network+, while both Saturday and Sunday’s games will be broadcast nationally on SEC Network.
The Bubbly Big 12
As far as the at-large picture is concerned, there are a pair of key Big 12 series this weekend: Cincinnati travels to TCU, while Kansas State takes on No. 9 West Virginia. In our most recent Field Of 64, both the Bearcats and Wildcats were in the field, though Kansas State was among our “last four in.” Cincinnati last weekend put itself squarely on the right side of the bubble with an emphatic road sweep of then-No. 25 Kansas, and earlier this week, it earned a solid road win over Oral Roberts. As it stands, the Bearcats have a top 40 RPI to go along with the 31st best strength of schedule and eight Quadrant 1 wins. That’s a pretty dynamite resume, and another series win this weekend would all but clinch an at-large bid.
Kansas State is in a little bit more of a precarious position than Cincinnati. Its RPI is 44, it doesn’t have a top 50 strength of schedule and it has just four Quadrant 1 wins. The Wildcats have an opportunity to add to that total this weekend, though it won’t be easy. West Virginia has lost just one conference series and has won each of its last six series. Perhaps the biggest key this weekend for Kansas State is to not get swept. A series win would almost certainly take it off the “last four in” line, but one victory isn’t the end of the world. If the Wildcats can essentially tread water until next weekend’s all-important series with Cincinnati, they’ll still be in a relatively good spot.
How To Watch Cincinnati (28-20, 13-11 Big 12) At TCU (33-15, 15-9 Big 12) And No. 9 West Virginia (39-8, 18-4 Big 12) At Kansas State (28-20, 14-10 Big 12)
Every game of both series can be streamed via ESPN+ (subscription required).
Speaking Of Bubble Teams…
At this time last week, Mississippi State’s at-large hopes were hanging by a thread. From a conference record standpoint, its 7-14 mark was suboptimal, but it had also just fired former head coach Chris Lemonis. However, the Bulldogs pulled off an impressive sweep of Kentucky and breathed new life into their resume. Heading into this weekend’s rivalry series against No. 18 Ole Miss, Mississippi State has a top 35 RPI, the 12th best strength of schedule and nine Quadrant 1 and 1 wins. It needs just two more conference wins between this weekend and the SEC Tournament to reach the all-important “magic number” of 12 SEC victories, and it’s in prime position to do exactly that.
While I give the slight edge to the Rebels this weekend, it’s difficult to envision the Bulldogs getting swept, especially at home in front of what figures to be an outstanding crowd. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if they notch another impressive series win. Looking ahead to next week, Mississippi State closes out the regular season with a series at historically bad Missouri, which is an abysmal 0-24 in SEC play. Despite the circumstances, Mississippi State has captured some late-season momentum at the perfect time, and it will look to ride that wave into the postseason and make a run towards Omaha in June.
How To Watch No. 18 Ole Miss (33-15, 13-11 SEC) At Mississippi State (29-19, 10-14 SEC)
Friday’s game can be streamed via ESPN+, while both Saturday and Sunday’s games can be streamed via SEC Network+.
Iowa Faces Its Biggest Test Yet
Iowa has one of the trickier resumes of any team on the bubble. On the surface, one would think the Hawkeyes are safely in the field given their 32-15 overall record and Big Ten-leading 21-6 conference record. However, their underlying metrics are—to put it kindly—lackluster. Heading into this weekend’s huge series against No. 15 Oregon State, Iowa has a modest RPI of 67. Additionally, the Hawkeyes’ strength of schedule and non-conference strength of schedule rank No. 153 and No. 278, respectively. That resume doesn’t necessarily scream “at-large lock,” hence why they’re among our last four teams in.
However, that could change this weekend. The strength of schedule marks won’t, but Iowa’s RPI figures to trend in the right direction. Oregon State’s No. 6 RPI provides the Hawkeyes with a golden opportunity to bolster their resume. They’re unlikely to come away with a series win, but Iowa’s RPI—given how the metric works—figures to get a boost for simply playing the games. The objective of this weekend should be to not get swept. Heading into the final weekend of the season—a series against No. 10 Oregon—with just three Quadrant 1 wins and a resume not-too-dissimilar from this weekend would not be ideal. One win this weekend wouldn’t necessarily change all of that—after all, they’d go from just three to four Quadrant 1 wins—but it could provide Iowa with the RPI boost it desperately needs. To put it simply, a series win would be game-changing and Iowa’s resume would be a heck of a lot less “bubbly.”
How To Watch No. 15 Oregon State (35-12) At Iowa (32-15, 21-6 Big Ten)
All three games this weekend can be streamed via Big Ten Plus (subscription required).
SEC Roundup
The main team to keep an eye on from a bubble standpoint is Kentucky. After last weekend’s sweep, the Wildcats are now just 10-14 in the SEC and on the wrong side of the bubble. They host No. 16 Oklahoma this week and could play themselves back into the field, but they’re in a precarious position.
No. 13 Tennessee has lost three-straight series and four of its last five, and this weekend it hosts No. 11 Vanderbilt. After looking invincible for all of February and March, the Volunteers are suddenly creeping closer to the hosting line. They desperately need a series win this weekend to start to build some confidence before postseason play begins.
No. 2 Texas hosts a surging Florida team which has gone from comfortably out of the tournament field to a projected No. 2 seed. The Gators are getting hot at the right time and will look to take advantage of a battered and bruised Longhorns bunch after last weekend’s sweep at the hands of Arkansas. I think Texas rights the ship with a series win, though it won’t be easy, and I foresee Florida leaving Austin with a win.
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
