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Florida coach Kevin O’Sullivan (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The final weekend of the regular-season is upon us. The next three days provide teams around the country with one last tuneup before their respective conference tournaments and serve as a chance to cement postseason status. In what’s been the case each week lately, there’s plenty to follow as it pertains to tournament implications.
Florida: From Non-Tournament Team To Potential Host?
After Florida was swept at home by Vanderbilt—its fourth-straight series loss to begin SEC play—there was plenty of doubt surrounding its postseason status. Since then, the Gators have responded with four straight series victories and have vaulted into a position to host. Should Florida win this weekend’s series against No. 16 Alabama, it figures to find itself on the right side of the hosting bubble. Its underlying metrics are that of a host, and right now the Gators have an RPI of 13, the fourth-best strength of schedule and 15 Quadrant 1 and 2 wins. Another series win this weekend would mean head coach Kevin O’Sullivan’s crew would have at least 15 conference wins heading into the SEC Tournament and at least 37 overall.
Even if Florida drops its series against Alabama, it could still play its way into a top 16 National seed. This path would be more difficult and much more of a long shot, as it would involve a multi-win run in the SEC Tournament. Regardless of what happens, it is mighty impressive that Florida has played its way into being a No. 2 seed—at worst—after its disastrous start to conference play. It’s been to the College World Series in each of the last two seasons, and O’Sullivan has the pieces to make yet another trip to the “greatest show on dirt.”
How To Watch No. 16 Alabama (39-13, 15-12 SEC) At No. 13 Florida (35-18, 13-14 SEC)
All three games this weekend can be streamed via SEC Network+.
Can Ole Miss Knock Off No. 2 Auburn?
The header of this section speaks for itself, but if Ole Miss—another team with hosting aspirations—can take two of three from red-hot Auburn this weekend, it figures to find itself on the right side of the hosting bubble. It was no secret that this was a pivotal year in Oxford. After winning their first-ever national championship in 2022, the Rebels had failed to make the postseason in each of the last two seasons. It was “put up or shut up” time for Ole Miss and the team more than rose to the occasion. It started the season hot with a pair of ranked wins over Arizona and Clemson and have since picked up notable SEC series wins over Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
As of today, Ole Miss is on the outside looking in of the hosting picture. However, an upset series victory this weekend at home would likely change that. The Rebels right now have a strong resume. Their RPI is 18, they have a top-15 (No. 11) strength of schedule and an impressive 13 Quadrant 1 wins. Additionally, they’re above .500 in SEC play at 14-13 and 35-17 overall. Like Florida, a series loss this weekend wouldn’t completely knock Ole Miss out of the hosting picture, but its path to get there would become far more difficult.
How To Watch No. 2 Auburn (37-15, 16-11 SEC) At No. 22 Ole Miss (35-17, 14-13 SEC)
All three games this weekend can be streamed via SEC Network+.
Tennessee In Need Of A Late-Season Spark
For the first half of the season, Tennessee looked invincible. It had steamrolled anything in its way and began conference play with three-straight series wins over Florida, Alabama and South Carolina. The Volunteers began their fourth SEC series with a 10-0 win—in which likely first-round pick Liam Doyle and a quartet of bullpen arms combined to throw a no-hitter—and appeared to be on their way to another emphatic series victory. However, that’s when everything changed. Since its series-opening win over Texas A&M, Tennessee has lost five of its last six SEC series and four straight. Its schedule has been unbelievably difficult, and at least a couple of its series losses could very well have gone the other way, but it’s been a puzzling stretch nonetheless.
Tennessee this weekend concludes its regular season with another difficult series at No. 7 Arkansas, which is an eye-popping 30-3 at Baum-Walker Stadium. The Volunteers once appeared to be on their way to being the No. 1 national seed, but now it’s no longer a slam dunk they’ll even host. They were projected as such in our most recent Field of 64, but a series loss this weekend—depending on what happens elsewhere—could potentially knock the Vols down to a No. 2 seed.
When you look at Tennessee’s resume from 10,000 feet, it’s still impressive. It has once again crossed the 40-win threshold, has 15 conference wins, a top-15 RPI, top-30 strength of schedule and 17 Quadrant 1 and 2 wins. A series win this weekend would mean a lot to Tennessee even beyond its tournament status. Sure, it would be nice to all but lock up a top 16 national seed, but this is a team that has been in desperate need of any sort of momentum for quite some time. A series victory in Fayetteville would provide the Volunteers with a big-time spark heading into the most important month on the college baseball calendar.
How To Watch No. 18 Tennessee (40-13, 15-12 SEC) At No. 7 Arkansas (41-11, 18-9 SEC)
Tonight’s game will be televised nationally on ESPN2, while both Friday and Saturday’s games can be streamed via SEC Network+.
The Big 12 Bubble
One of the most important non-top 25 series this weekend is Kansas State at Cincinnati. The Wildcats—who entered last weekend’s series against then-No. 9 West Virginia as one of the final teams in the field—pulled off an unbelievable series win over the Mountaineers and are now a rather comfortable No. 3 seed. On the flip side, Cincinnati suffered a hard-fought series loss at TCU and is now among one of the last four teams in the field. Should the Bearcats right the ship, they could very well swap positions on the bubble with the Wildcats. On the other hand, a Kansas State series victory would not only further cement its at-large status but could potentially put Cincinnati out of the field heading into the Big 12 Conference Tournament.
The two clubs have mighty similar resumes. Cincinnati’s RPI is 35 compared to Kansas State’s 37, Cincinnati’s strength of schedule is No. 23, whereas Kansas State’s is No. 31 and they both have six Quadrant 1 wins. However, at 16-11 in Big 12 play, the Wildcats have a two-game advantage in the conference standings and also boast—albeit by one game—a better overall record at 30-21. This weekend’s series is important to both teams, but slightly more so for the Bearcats.
How To Watch Kansas State (30-21, 16-11 Big 12) At Cincinnati (29-22, 14-13 Big 12)
All three games this weekend can be streamed via ESPN+ (subscription required).
SEC Roundup
Jacob Rudner and I talked about it more in-depth on this week’s college podcast, but last weekend was a nightmare for Texas A&M. It was swept at home by a Missouri team that was previously 0-24 in the SEC and saw its RPI tank to 59, which is well outside the threshold to be considered for an at-large bid. Following a brutal start to the season in which it fell from No. 1 to outside the top 25, the Aggies appeared to have righted the ship and earned a trio of big-time ranked series victories over Tennessee, Arkansas and LSU.
As unfortunate as it sounds, last weekend’s disaster undid all of that, and now A&M needs a miracle to reposition in the postseason picture. At just 10-17 in the SEC, the Aggies at the very least have to win this weekend’s series at No. 4 Georgia and also go on a deep run in the SEC Tournament. Should they drop their series against the Bulldogs, their only path to earning a spot in the field of 64 would be a miraculous run in Hoover that results in a conference tournament title. Bottom line: Texas A&M’s backs are against the wall and time is running out fast.
With an RPI of 26, Oklahoma is comfortably a No. 2 seed, but there is still a path for the Sooners to host. It’s rather difficult and unlikely, but it would include them knocking off No. 6 Texas this weekend. Should they do that, Oklahoma’s SEC record would improve to at least .500 and their Quadrant 1 win total would increase from eight to at least 10. It would also give the Sooners plenty of momentum heading into conference tournament week, and they are a team who is certainly capable of making a deep run not only in Hoover, but also in June.
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