Julian Edlow shares his college basketball picks and analysis for a loaded slate on Wednesday, February 26.
March is just around the corner, and we’ve got a loaded Wednesday night card in college hoops. I put the start of my card out on Twitter last night, but have added below. Let’s breakdown some college basketball picks below.
Michigan State at Maryland (6:30pm ET)
Tom Izzo and Sparty have hit their stride following an embarrassing home loss to Indiana, winning and covering each of their last three, including two as road underdogs. But this should be the toughest road test of the bunch, heading to College Park to face a very good Maryland squad. The Terps are 16-1 at home, with the loss coming way back in November to Marquette. Maryland is also 11-6 ATS at home, covering four straight as a home favorite. The Terps have all the pieces to compete with MSU, including multiple talented bigs, and a deep rotation of guards that shoot the ball well. I think Sparty’s fortune on the road runs out here against the best of the teams they’ve faced recently in a very difficult place to play.
College Basketball Pick: Maryland -3.5 (-105) 1.5-units
Dayton at Rhode Island (7:00pm ET)
Both teams are coming off road losses, as Dayton dropped a close one at Loyola Chicago, and URI got stomped at Saint Louis. The Flyers dropped to just 2-4 ATS as a road favorite, and now have to go on the road again to Kingston. The Rams are an impressive 13-2 at the Ryan Center this season, and 2-1 ATS in the rare home underdog role. Dayton is an A-10-worst 4-10 ATS in conference this season, and I’m looking to Rhody to keep this one tight.
College Basketball Pick: URI +4.5 (-110) 1-unit
Kentucky at Oklahoma (9:00pm ET)
Kentucky is off a tough road loss to Alabama on Saturday, looking to bounce back on Wednesday in Norman. The Wildcats should bet a huge boost in this game, with their entire starting backcourt returning to the lineup — Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson have missed time lately, but will play in this one. That’s exactly what Kentucky needs to get back on track. Oklahoma is off a big home win as an underdog to Mississippi State on Saturday, but the Sooners have proven to be beatable at home. OU lost the only other time it was priced as a home dog, getting mopped by Tennessee. The Sooners also recently dropped a pair of home games as short favorites to Texas A&M and Texas. Look for the Wildcats to be at their best in full form. I played the moneyline overnight and posted it to Twitter, but added a bit more on the spread this morning.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky ML (-135) 1-unit
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky -2.5 (-115) 0.5-units
Utah State at Boise State (10:30pm ET)
We’ve had a stretch of huge games in the Mountain West, and I’ve been rolling with the home teams as short favorites. I’ll continue that on Wednesday with the Aggies heading to Boise. The Broncos are 12-1 SU/9-3 ATS at home (one game didn’t have a spread), covering by 7.6 points per game. Utah State is a tough out on the road though, sitting at 7-2, including an impressive 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS mark. That loss came two weekends ago at New Mexico, and this should be a similar environment. Home court has been massive down the stretch in this conference, and I put a lot of value on that entering this matchup.
College Basketball Pick: Boise State -3.5 (-110) 1.5-units
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M (7:00pm ET)
Penn State at Indiana (8:30pm ET)
I’m going to piece together a couple of sizable home favorites in a moneyline parlay here, both in different spots. Texas A&M suffered a tough home loss to a hot shooting Tennessee team on Saturday, and sits in a perfect bounce-back situation against Vandy, who got a home win over Ole Miss on Saturday. With a road game at Florida on deck for the Aggies, this is a must-win.
Indiana is coming off an impressive home upset of Purdue on Sunday, fueled by a massive second half. While this could be perceived as a down spot for the Hoosiers, I’ll look for them to carry some momentum into a game against a Penn State team that’s drawn dead on the road. PSU just upset Minnesota on Saturday for its first road win of the season, but I don’t see that becoming a trend here at Assembly Hall.
College Basketball Pick: Texas A&M/Indiana ML Parlay (-130) 1.5-units
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