College Basketball Best Bets Today:
There were some fleeting moments of drama between Arizona and Duke, but the first night of the Sweet 16 gave us two blowouts, one run-of-the-mill game, and one absolute thriller. What will night two of the Sweet 16 have in store for us?
We’re down to seven college hoops games in the NCAA Tournament, so let’s savor these and also try to win as many bets as possible. The College Basketball Crown does start on Monday and I’ll have a preview of that up either today or tomorrow at VSiN.com for you to check out.
It’s a great time to sign up as a VSiN Pro subscriber, which you can become for the low cost of $9.99 for the first month. We have previews of every NCAA Tournament game coming your way as things progress.
Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run every day with CBB games through the end of the season. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Houston Cougars (-8.5, 133.5)
10:09 p.m. ET
Lucas Oil Stadium is an odd choice for a Sweet 16/Elite Eight, as that seems more reserved for a Final Four/National Championship type of setting, but we’ll have basketball in a football stadium tonight in Indy. It could be especially troubling for these two teams, as both Purdue and Houston shoot more 3s than they do shots at the rim.
Houston’s 24.4% shot share on Close Twos is the lowest in the nation. Purdue’s 28.6% shot share ranks 359th in the nation. The Boilermakers have found some more success getting inside against High Point and McNeese State, but Houston is a different beast. As much as the Cougars don’t like getting to the rim on offense, they also don’t let their opposition get in there very often, ranking 30th in shot share against on Close Twos. Purdue is 27th.
In other words, this will be a game with a lot of jump shots in what could potentially be a very tough shooting environment. That provides an extra degree of variance to this game. I also feel like Purdue has a lot more offensive creativity than Houston. The Boilermakers rank ninth in 3P%, which is behind the Cougars, who rank first, but Purdue is a top-50 offense in 2P% and Houston is in the 260s.
Houston forces a lot of turnovers on defense to help control the pace, but Purdue takes good care of the ball and has a ton of experience on the perimeter. I feel like Purdue is very hard to blow out in this game, even with some of Matt Painter’s NCAA Tournament turd sandwiches. But, it’s not like Kelvin Sampson has shined, as he’s had No. 1 seeds the last two years and lost in this round.
The Boilermakers getting a 3-4 possession head start is good for me, but I’ll also sprinkle the moneyline here in hopes that they can pull the upset for good measure.
Pick: Purdue +8.5 (80/20 split on spread/moneyline)
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