College Basketball Best Bets Today:
With yesterday’s ugly college basketball card in the rearview mirror, we turn our attention to Tuesday, where 36 games are on the slate. We’ve also got some real bangers tonight in the SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten, so it should be a fun night for hoops on the hardwood. Johni Broome (Auburn) and Wade Taylor IV (Texas A&M) are two big injuries to follow this evening. Finding injury information is very tricky, but at least high-profile ones like this get some press.
Two months from now, some conference tournaments will already be finished and others will be into the quarterfinals or later. A lot can and will change between now and then, but the season is chugging down the tracks quickly to say the least.
***Top College Basketball Betting Resources***
*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*
Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Miami (OH) RedHawks (-12.5, 148) at Northern Illinois Huskies
7 p.m. ET
According to Haslametrics, Miami of Ohio is one of the hottest teams in the nation. Over the last 30 days, Miami has jumped 86 spots in Haslam’s rankings and 45 spots in the last week. Only six teams have had bigger jumps. Now the RedHawks take their blazing offense on the road to DeKalb to take on Northern Illinois.
The Huskies are beyond awful this season. They are 4-11 and three of their wins are against lower-division opponents. They beat Monmouth at home on Nov. 12 for their lone win against a D-I opponent. In their D-I games, they’ve lost by 15, 16, 27, 46, 5, 13, 44, 21, 4, 18, and 38 points. The four-point loss opened up MAC play against Eastern Michigan, a similarly bad type of team.
Ohio just had 1.363 points per possession on the Huskies and scored 108 points on Saturday. Miami has the potential to do something similar here in a game that should be played with tempo. As bad as Northern Illinois is, they haven’t stopped running, as they are a top-50 team in tempo per Torvik.
The RedHawks have a TO% over 21% on defense and should have a ton of efficiency with their offensive possessions, as they rank 37th in eFG%, 64th in 2P%, and 47th in 3P%, while Northern Illinois is 358th in eFG%, 345th in eFG% defense, 358th in 2P%, 319th in 3P%, and 357th in 3P% defense.
NIU just has no system or semblance of order on either side of the floor. They’re shooting 29.7% on 3s, but have taken a 3 over 47% of the time. Miami should be able to counter with some fast-break points as well.
Pick: Miami (OH) -12.5
North Texas Mean Green (-3.5, 127.5) at East Carolina Pirates
7 p.m. ET
The Mean Green take their show on the road for a matchup in Greenville, NC against the Pirates. They say that defense travels and that is true of North Texas, as they are in positive figures in Erik Haslam’s “Away From Home” metric, so that’s a good start, especially because they take a lot of 3s.
UNT has a 39.6% 3P Rate and has shot 36.2% on those attempts. They are shooting 33.9% from 3 on the road, but that still ranks 125th in Torvik’s rankings, which account for only Division I opponents. They also take fewer 3s, shooting them at a 37% clip, so Ross Hodge seems plenty aware of his team’s shot selection away from home. And, it is worth noting, the lowest-ranked team UNT has played in a road/neutral setting this season has been Minnesota, who was 108th at the time. East Carolina is ranked 182nd.
East Carolina has allowed opponents to shoot 37.8% from 3 on the season, while only shooting 26% from 3 themselves. North Texas is one of the best in the nation at clogging up the key, so the Pirates will be forced to take a lot more jumpers than usual here and it is an area where they do not excel. Yann Farell missed the game against Memphis and he’s a 39% 3-point shooter, one of two rotation players shooting over 26% from 3.
ECU has taken good care of the basketball this season, but North Texas is one of the best in the nation at forcing turnovers. Also, because of all the long shots that they force, they are a good defensive rebounding team, taking away another potential advantage for East Carolina
After starting 7-1 against a weak schedule, the Pirates are just 2-7 and have dropped three of their four AAC games. I think they drop another one here.
Pick: North Texas -3.5
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack (-19, 127.5)
10 p.m. ET
The Falcons have landed in Reno for Tuesday night’s tilt against the Wolf Pack. This should be the slowest game on the board, as Nevada comes in 351st in adjusted tempo per Torvik and Air Force is 336th. For all of Air Force’s major faults on defense, there are a few redeeming qualities on offense, as they’re shooting more than a percent better than the national average from 3 and also could get more of a lift from Beau Becker.
Becker, who averaged nearly 14 PPG last season, has played four games as he works his way back from an injury suffered in the season opener against North Alabama. He played a season-high 13 minutes against San Jose State and had a season-high nine points. The more he’s out there, the better Air Force should be, as he’s one of their better players and one of their better shooters, if not their best shooter.
Nevada is a strong offensive team as well, particularly from 3. But, they’ve been struggling a bit lately, losing their first four Mountain West games before an 11-point win over Fresno State in a game where they were 5-of-30 from deep. Nevada’s shooting numbers are inflated by some performances earlier this season, like 18-of-36 against Texas Southern or 12-of-21 against Weber State. They are shooting 31.3% from 3 over their last five games.
I think it’ll take a huge effort from 3 given the limited number of possessions here and also feel like Air Force is a little bit underrated in the market with Becker’s return. Even if he only gives Air Force 15 or so minutes, that’s 15 better minutes than most as a guy who shot 59.4% on 2s and 39.6% on 3s last season.
Pick: Air Force +19
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
