We’re now less than one month away from Selection Sunday…What a time to be alive!
This college basketball season is statistically one of the tightest in recent memory, as more than 30 teams have an adjusted efficiency rating of over 20 per the widely used and comprehensive Kenpom advanced statistics ranking system (for reference, Kenpom ratings determine who the best teams are in college basketball based on offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as pace of play and strength of schedule).
Undoubtedly, March Madness is gearing up to be one of the most exciting tournaments in years, and with that, I figure that readers need a cheat sheet of which teams are the best at what.
The Cream of the crop: War damn Eagle
The Auburn Tigers are unequivocally the best team in college basketball, especially coming off a victory against their arch rival No. 4 Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Head coach Bruce Pearl’s squad sits at 23-2 with seven wins over currently ranked teams—four of which are ranked in the top 10. The Tigers’ only losses came to the two teams hot on their coattails: Florida and Duke, ranked No. 2 and No. 3, respectively.
Auburn is led by the national player of the year frontrunner, senior forward Johni Broome. Broome leads the Tigers in four major statistical categories: points, rebounds, assists and blocks. While Broom’s impressive season has helped lead the Tigers to No. 1 in the country, Auburn’s strength is its depth.
The Tigers have six guys averaging double digits, all of whom play their roles to perfection. Freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford, for example, has been one of the go-to guys in the clutch. The projected lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft has shown his maturity hitting clutch shots—including five three-pointers against No. 5 Houston—and knocking down free throws in the waning moments of the win versus No. 6 Tennessee.
Auburn’s depth, coaching experience and impressive offensive output—No. 1 in Kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency— are what have catapulted the team to No. 1 in the country. If today were Selection Sunday, I would pick the Tigers to win the NCAA Tournament.
Defense wins championships: Pitino’s Praetorian Guards
St. John’s head coach Rick Pitino has one of the hottest teams in the country, as the Red Storm have won 11 of their last 12 games behind hard-nosed, rough-and-tumble basketball.
The Johnnies have what I believe to be the best defense in the country, physically dominating opponents and not giving them an inch offensively.
St. John’s currently ranks No. 2 in Kenpom adjusted defensive efficiency, but the eye test just tells me that it is the best defensive team in the country. Watching teams play with effort and hustle makes me giddy, and the Red Storm do exactly that.
The only issue with St. John’s, which could haunt the team come tournament time, is that it has what I like to call “Virginia Syndrome.” For those unfamiliar with Virginia Syndrome, it is when a team plays some of the best defense in the country, but can’t shoot the ball to save its life.
Virginia of course won the Tournament back in 2019 with a similarly excellent defense, but that team had some of the best 3-point shooters in the entirety of the NCAA that season.
In the final years of head coach Tony Bennett, Virginia just could not shoot the basketball. St. John’s appears to have the same issue at the moment.
The Red Storm average 29.3% from 3-point land — 344th in the country. Funny enough, another contender, Michigan State, ranks 347th.
The issue with teams that play great defense but can’t shoot is that when these teams get down, they can’t climb their way out of the hole, aka Virginia Syndrome. Granted, St. John’s has won close games while stinking it up from three, like when the Red Storm beat Xavier earlier this year. They shot 1-for-12 from three but still pulled off the win in overtime.
While this team could make a deep run due to its defense, the lack of 3-point shooting from St. John’s really scares me.
My favorite mid-major: Pitino’s pack of wolves
Two Pitinos in one article?!?! Big day for New York Italians.
Richard Pitino—the son of Rick— is the head coach of the New Mexico Lobos, easily one of my favorite teams in college basketball, and by far my favorite mid-major team.
Before I continue, however, I feel it is necessary to point out that last season, I was also a big fan of New Mexico and the Mountain West as a whole, and they utterly disappointed in last year’s NCAA Tournament.
Despite last year’s underperformance come the postseason, I still love the Lobos.
New Mexico plays some of the quickest basketball in the country, with the sixth-fastest pace of play according to Kenpom, and statistically, teams who play quick basketball can make deep runs in the Tournament (look at the Alabama Crimson Tide of the last two seasons).
The Lobos only have one loss in conference play (albeit to a poor San Jose State team), and this past weekend knocked off Utah State, their chief rival in the Mountain West, taking a two-game conference lead.
New Mexico has one of the best point guards in the country in junior Donovan Dent, who is averaging 19.7 points on nearly 50% shooting from the field.
When the going gets tough for NCAA Tournament teams, I want an experienced point guard with the ball in his hands, and that is exactly who Dent is — someone who will get you a bucket down the line.
Maybe my love for the Lobos might be unfounded, but I can just feel it this year.
We are less than four weeks away from Selection Sunday, and while I could rave more about teams who I think are overrated (which I still might), these three teams could easily make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.
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