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College basketball is nearing the midway point of the 2024-5 campaign, so it’s a good time to take a peak at the futures market and break down some best bets.
All of the best betting apps on the market are currently offering odds on the National Championship, Final Four and conference title races. By examining those odds and comparing them to public projection models, we can try to identify where the value is.
A couple important notes before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model to betting odds from a number of sportsbooks. 2) I compared futures prices at those books for all of college basketball’s top contenders.
Here’s a look at 5 of the highest expected-value wagers based on that process:
College basketball futures best bets (Jan. 24)
Wisconsin to reach the Final Four (+2800 on ESPN BET)
- Implied odds: 3.45%
- BartTorvik odds: 7.5%
- Expected value: $117.5 on a $100 wager
Wisconsin has gone a bit under-the-radar this season in the Big Ten, but the Badgers might not be overlooked for long. KenPom is projecting Wisconsin as the favorite in 7 of its next 9 games. Greg Gard has built a top-10 offense in Madison that rarely turns the ball over and shoots a lot of 3-pointers (38th nationally in 3-point attempt rate). The defense isn’t elite, but this is a high-variance profile, which is something to look for when trying to identify semi-long shots in March.
Houston to win the National Championship (+1100 on Caesars)
- Implied odds: 8.33%
- BartTorvik odds: 17.5%
- Expected value: $110.0 on a $100 wager
By virtually any measure, Houston is one of the very best teams in college basketball this season. The Cougars have the nation’s top defense per KenPom and are No. 13 in offense as of this writing. They’re one of a handful of teams who is top-20 in both categories as of late January. Houston is a team loaded with veterans and elite 3-point shooting (5th nationally) that doesn’t turn the ball over. That’s a recipe for success in March.
BartTorvik was higher than the consensus on Houston last season as well, so it’s fair to wonder if its profile plays up in that model in a way that doesn’t necessarily translate in the NCAA Tournament. Still, the model shows some significant value on the Cougars here that’s difficult to pass up.
Maryland to reach the Final Four (+2200 on DraftKings)
- Implied odds: 4.35%
- BartTorvik odds: 8.4%
- Expected value: $93.20 on a $100 bet
It’s Year 3 for Kevin Willard in College Park and it looks like he may have his best team yet. The Terps have won 4 of their last 5, including a blowout win over a really good Illinois team on Thursday night. Maryland is top-35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Derik Queen has been one of the most productive bigs in the country this season. Maryland also plays at a very high pace — 15.6 seconds per offensive possession ranks 20th nationally per KenPom.
Maryland is a relative long shot, but BartTorvik’s model does show considerable value on the Terps to reach the Final Four. Perhaps the market hasn’t caught up to just how good Queen is — 15.6 points per game with a true shooting percentage north of 60% while leading the Big Ten in defensive win shares. For now, at least, there’s value on backing the Terps.
Purdue to reach the Final Four (+1500 on FanDuel)
- Implied odds: 6.25%
- BartTorvik odds: 11.3%
- Expected value: $80.80 on a $100 wager
Remember the Boilermakers? They’ve recovered nicely from losing center Daniel Jacobsen to a season-ending injury. After shuffling around roles in the wake of Jacobsen’s injury, Matt Painter seems to have settled on a starting 5: Braden Smith, CJ Cox, Fletcher Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Caleb Furst. This season, that 5-man lineup is out-scoring opponents by more than 35 points per 100 possessions, according to EvanMiya. That ranks 7th nationally amongst 5-man lineups with at least 150 possessions played.
It’s not surprising that the market would be lower on Purdue than models like BartTorvik. The absence of Zach Edey is glaring and this team looks much different than it did a year ago without him manning the middle. Still, Purdue looks like a bonafide contender as the calendar moves toward late January.
Texas Tech to reach the Final Four (+1100 on DraftKings)
- Implied odds: 8.33%
- BartTorvik odds: 11.1%
- Expected value: $33.20 on a $100 bet
Texas Tech is ranked in the top-12 according to both KenPom and BartTorvik. The Red Raiders aren’t in the AP Top 25 this week, largely due to flukey losses to St. Josephs (Texas Tech shot 20% from 3 and lost by 1) and UCF (Texas Tech shot 18% from 3 and lost by 4). Despite some shooting woes that have popped up in inopportune times this season, the Red Raiders actually rank 13th in 3-point efficiency this season. There’s a long way to go until March, but this certainly looks like a team that’s being slept on by the market.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
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