We’ve near the midway point of conference play in most major leagues, so it’s a good time to examine the futures market and see what value could be out there for bettors.
Last week in this piece, we broke down National Championship and Final Four futures for a number a number of top contenders from around the country. This week, we’ll take a look at high expected value propositions for teams to either make or miss the NCAA Tournament as well as props for some teams to finish out undefeated regular seasons in conference play.
An important note before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model to betting odds from a number of sports betting apps.
College basketball futures bets for Jan. 31
Wake Forest to miss the NCAA Tournament (-300 on bet365)
- Implied odds: 75%
- BartTorvik odds: 96.3%
- Expected value: $28.40 on a $100 wager
Wake Forest is in an interesting spot at the moment. The Demon Deacons have a NCAA Tournament-worthy résumé at this point in the season with wins over teams like North Carolina and Michigan. Their résumé metrics are in the top-40 almost across the board. But the predictive ratings from sites like KenPom and BartTorvik are much lower on Wake Forest, which explains why this model sees value on betting against Steve Forbes’ bunch to get to the Big Dance.
Even with its résumé as a strength, Wake is just 1-6 in Quad 1 games so far this season. As a side effect of the ACC’s struggles, the Deacons only have 3 regular season games remaining vs. Quad 1 opposition. The margin for error is extremely thin from this point onwards.
North Carolina to make the NCAA Tournament (+180 on bet365)
- Implied odds: 35.71%
- BartTorvik odds: 42.8%
- Expected value: $19.84 on a $100 wager
This one may be difficult to get behind given North Carolina’s recent run of results, but BartTorvik’s model is still showing some value on the Tar Heels to make the Big Dance. Carolina’s last 4 games have been a relative disaster: losses to Stanford, Wake and Pittsburgh and an overtime win over Boston College. Up next is a trip to Duke where the Tar Heels will be double-digit underdogs.
UNC is going to be a big favorite in most of its remaining ACC games, but it’s going to need to pick up a significant win or 2 in order to have a chance on Selection Sunday. Carolina’s 3 remaining Quad 1 opportunities are against Duke (twice) and Clemson (on the road) before the ACC Tournament. One win from that bunch plus a run in the ACC Tourney would possibly be enough to make things interesting for the selection committee.
SMU to miss the NCAA Tournament (-178 on FanDuel)
- Implied odds: 64.03%
- BartTorvik odds: 74.3%
- Expected value: $16.04 on a $100 wager
SMU is yet another ACC team on the fringes of the NCAA Tournament conversation. The Mustangs are 16-5 this season with no bad losses, but they also don’t have any marquee wins at this stage. Their best win, per KenPom, came against LSU in Frisco back in December.
The Mustangs are 1-5 this season against teams ranked in the KenPom top-90 and 0-4 in Quad 1 contests. And like everyone else in the ACC, SMU is starved of Quad 1 opportunities for the rest of the year. There’s only 2 left on the schedule — vs. Clemson and at Stanford. The game against the Cardinal could easily be a Quad 2 game by the time they tipoff on March 1 as well. Any bad loss for the rest of the season would likely sink SMU’s at-large chances.
Georgia to make the NCAA Tournament (-200 on bet365)
- Implied odds: 66.7%
- BartTorvik odds: 77.1%
- Expected value: $15.65 on a $100 wager
Georgia is entering the weekend as one of several SEC teams on the bubble, but both oddsmakers and BartTorik’s model are bullish on its chances. UGA is 35th in the NET entering the weekend. Its résumé is bolstered by a nonconference victory over St. John’s from back in November.
Anytime you’re betting on an SEC team to make the field of 68, you’re getting one very important thing: Opportunity. The Bulldogs have a staggering 7 Quad 1 games remaining before the SEC Tournament. Even just a couple of wins in those games (and no Quad 2 losses) would likely be enough for Georgia to make the Dance. That’s easier said than done, of course. But UGA’s defense is good enough that the Bulldogs should be able to win enough games to get over the line on Selection Sunday.
Will anyone have an undefeated regular season in conference play?
We’ve reached roughly the midway point conference play in most of the top leagues, so several sportsbooks are asking a question: Who can still go undefeated in conference play?
There are 3 high-major candidates for that distinction entering the weekend: Houston out of the Big 12, Duke out of the ACC and Auburn out of the SEC. A couple of sportsbooks have provided odds for each of those teams to run the table.
Using BartTorvik’s game-by-game win likelihoods, here are the highest-EV bets available for this market:
Houston to have an undefeated regular season in Big 12 play (+700 on BetMGM)
- Implied odds: 12.5%
- BartTorvik odds: 25.22%
- Expected value: $101.76
BartTorvik gives Houston better than a 25% chance to win out in Big 12 play, which is quite remarkable. That would include wins over programs like Texas Tech (twice), Baylor, Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas. The good news for the Cougars is that almost all of those games (save for one against Texas Tech and Arizona) are slated to be played at home. The most likely outcome is that Houston drops a game or 2, but at +700, the value is there to bet on an undefeated run.
Duke to not have an undefeated regular season in ACC play (-135 on BetMGM)
- Implied odds: 57.45%
- BartTorvik odds: 75.9%
- Expected value: $32.12
It’s no secret that the rest of the ACC is having a down season. The Blue Devils haven’t had too much trouble in conference play so far, but BartTorvik’s model still shows value on betting against Duke to win out in conference play. That’s despite the fact that Duke only has 2 ACC games remaining with a win expectancy below 90%: at Clemson on Feb. 8 and at North Carolina on March 8.
It’s worth noting that Duke has had some relatively-close calls recently. Within the past few weeks, the Blue Devils have a 7-point win over Wake Forest, a 10-point win over NC State and an 8-point win over Notre Dame. The next month will bring games against NCAA Tournament-quality opposition in North Carolina and Clemson as well as a game against a veteran Stanford team.
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