Dan Johnson runs through his picks and predictions for today’s full slate of college hoops, including Michigan State vs. Maryland, Kentucky vs. Oklahoma, & more.
After two blistering home upsets last night—unranked Georgia over No. 3 Florida and unranked Oklahoma State over No. 9 Iowa State—we’ve got another college hoops slate with fringe teams looking to make statements against ranked squads. Bubble teams are playing more desperately—or, at least, a bit more fast and loose—and it’s throwing dominant offenses like the Gators’ off rhythm early. Among the big-market unranked teams tonight, we’ve got Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Penn State, and Indiana—I’m lining up predictions and/or picks for all heretofore listed.
Court-storms and legacy regulation wins—isn’t this what the magic of pre-March-Madness is all about? Isn’t this what conference play is designed to do? Disrupt?
We love it. And, with one game between ranked opponents, eight matchups between ranked and unranked teams, and over a dozen more, the game board is set for a midweek night of college basketball action.
Here are my favorite plays for tonight, after a 3-2 Tuesday night during which I was reminded, once more, to never bet the Gators when it feels right to bet the Gators.
Picks, predictions, outcomes, and best bets for NCAAM on February 26th
Let’s begin here: Maryland has only lost once this season at home, and Michigan State is on a slight tear of road-trip wins as they head to the XFINITY Center. The Terps are also 10-6-1 ATS at home. Betting against Tom Izzo & co. for Sparty is never wise as March looms on the calendar, but I’m stubborn about Maryland’s ability to take away the transition game—again, maybe only because they’re at home. They have just a tick under a +24 margin at XFINITY.
I’m not thrilled that 57% of the handle is on Maryland to cover the -4.5 spread, and was hoping we’d see similar Sparty bullishness from the public there as we are on the Moneyline. We’re seeing 57% of the handle on Michigan State to pull out the win at +154.
Having said that, I’m going with pedigree and home court advantage, here, on the spread. And, just generally, I think this is a game when Maryland can get characteristically lethal from beyond the arc, as is their wont this season.
Still, though—the Terrapins aren’t overly reliant on three-pointers, with all five starters consistently reaching double figures in scoring. Down low, Derik Queen and Julian Reese provide a strong interior presence, using their agility to run the floor, find openings in transition, and convert at the rim. Their ability to finish plays effectively adds another dimension to the team’s offensive attack.
After a night of big-market upsets, let’s back the first one of the night. Sure seems savvy!
Best bet: Maryland -4.5 (-105)
Click here to automatically fill your bet slip with Maryland to cover the spread on DraftKings Sportsbook with me in the DKN Betting Group!
I feel about as confident this season picking ATS in Aggies games as I do picking anything regarding the Gators. Which is to say: pinch your nose, or fade altogether. But I’m taking Vanderbilt to cover the moderate number tonight in College Station.
Vanderbilt’s been pesky all season, and the Aggies are coming off a tough home loss to the Tennessee Vols just five days ago. Surely, Buzz Williams will have his guys playing lock-down defense with 150% effort for as long as they can give breath in the first half. It’s the bounceback mentality.
Both these teams are inconsistent, but Vanderbilt has a legitimate shot at an NCAA bid if they can make their 2-6 road record look a bit better. They’re playing to win, here, which gives me confidence they’ll keep it close enough to cover the 7.5.
Best bet: Vanderbilt +7.5 (-105)
Prop bet: Wade Taylor o16.5 points (-125)
Vandy has been, shall we say, quite soft in some conference play. They’ve allowed 80+ points in all five of their last SEC away games, including 97- and 103-pointers. Taylor’s scored 18+ in his last two against Vanderbilt. I like him to creep toward 20 tonight.
Click here to automatically fill your bet slip with Vandy to cover the spread on DraftKings Sportsbook with me in the DKN Betting Group!
Not two years ago, both of these teams would have had numbers before their names, and this would have been the banner matchup of the night. So much so that it probably would have been on a Saturday, not a Wednesday. But here we are.
I was bullish on Alex Condon’s return to the Gators’ lineup being precisely the X-factor they needed to pull out the away victory at Georgia last night. Kentucky is in a similar boat: both Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson should be available to play in this one with few limitations.
Kentucky is off a big loss. Oklahoma is off a big win—a home-underdog win, no less. I do think this game is going to be just as close as the line is billed—Kentucky is currently a two-and-a-half point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook—but I think the biggest value is in the Sooners’ Moneyline, here.
Best bet: Oklahoma ML (+130)
Click here to automatically fill your bet slip with Vandy to cover the spread on DraftKings Sportsbook with me in the DKN Betting Group!
Quick-hitters and leans
You know the drill. Minimal analysis, if any:
Texas at Arkansas (-2.5) (-115)
Penn State (+5.5) at Indiana (+100)
Utah State (ML) at Boise State (+165)
BYU (-4.5) at Arizona State (-110)
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