College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Sunday, March 23.
Check out Greg’s Daily College Basketball Lines and his Coast 2 Coast Hoops Podcast. Also, check out our College Basketball Betting Splits.
12:10 PM Eastern
Connecticut vs. Florida
Connecticut has played at a slow tempo all season, ranking 320th in possessions per game. While the team has rough defensive metrics away from home, they have been playing their best defense of the year, allowing 71 points or fewer in nine of their past 11 games. Florida ranks 19th in the country in points per possession allowed and is 17th or better in both opponents’ two-point and three-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 145.5)
2:00 PM Eastern
Elon vs. Army
Army struggles to generate second-chance opportunities, ranking 298th in offensive rebound percentage by grabbing only 23.6% of their missed shots. Meanwhile, Elon ranks 13th, rebounding 35.6% of their misses while also slowing games down, ranking 318th in possessions per game. Both teams have offensive concerns—Army ranks 356th in road three-point shooting percentage at 27%, while Elon is 301st in turnovers per possession.
Pick: Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 141.5)
Oklahoma State vs. SMU
SMU should exploit an Oklahoma State defense that ranks 235th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and 299th in opponent two-point shooting percentage. SMU’s offense ranks 34th in points per possession and 28th in three-point shooting percentage, making 37.3% of their three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is 334th in the country in points per possession in games played away from home.
Pick: SMU -9.5 and Under 158 (Greg’s Handicap: SMU -12, Total 154)
5:00 PM Eastern
Queens (NC) vs. Northern Arizona
Northern Arizona ranks third in the country in defensive rebound percentage away from home, allowing opponents to rebound just 20.8% of their missed shots. They also take better care of the ball, ranking 41st in fewest turnovers per possession away from home, while Queens ranks 259th. Northern Arizona is 126th in points per possession allowed away from home, while Queens ranks 143rd.
Pick: Northern Arizona +2 (Greg’s Handicap: Northern Arizona -2.5)
5:15 PM Eastern
Illinois vs. Kentucky
Illinois ranks just 296th in the country in three-point shooting percentage at 31.4%, yet they attempt three-pointers at the 31st-highest rate (47.1% of their shots). They face a Kentucky team that averages 15.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home but ranks 27th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, allowing just 30.6% shooting from beyond the arc.
Pick: Under 170 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 167.5)
6:10 PM Eastern
St. Mary’s vs. Alabama
Alabama leads the nation in total possessions per game but has allowed 79 or more points in 10 of their past 12 contests. In contrast, Saint Mary’s is the opposite stylistically, ranking second in the country in fewest points per possession allowed away from home and 358th in total possessions per game. Their offense is also bolstered by an elite offensive rebounding rate, grabbing 38.9% of their misses—third-best in the nation.
Picks: St. Mary’s +5.5 and Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap: St. Mary’s +2, Total 146)
7:00 PM Eastern
Illinois State vs. Presbyterian
Illinois State ranks 23rd in three-point shooting percentage away from home (37.4%), 51st in points per possession, and 11th in road defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to rebound just 22.6% of their missed shots. Presbyterian, by contrast, ranks 249th in defensive rebound percentage and 268th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.
Picks: Illinois State -5.5 and Over 140 (Greg’s Handicap: Illinois State -11.5, Total 143.5)
Loyola Chicago vs. San Francisco
These teams met earlier this season on a neutral court in Wisconsin, where San Francisco won 76-66. However, that was back on December 15, with Marcus Williams—San Francisco’s leader in assists—still in the lineup. He is now out due to eligibility issues. San Francisco allows opponents to shoot just 22.9% from three at home, the best mark in the country. Neither team allows many second-chance opportunities, with Loyola Chicago ranking 39th in road defensive rebound percentage and San Francisco 25th in home defensive rebound percentage.
Pick: Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 139.5)
7:10 PM Eastern
Colorado State vs. Maryland
Maryland ranks in the top 25 nationally in both points scored and points allowed per possession. While Colorado State enters on an 11-game win streak, they rank just 262nd in offensive rebounding percentage and see their 39.3% three-point shooting at home drop to 34.2% on the road. Maryland’s defense, which ranks 20th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, will make it difficult for Colorado State to find open looks.
Pick: Maryland -7 (Greg’s Handicap: Maryland -9)
8:40 PM Eastern
New Mexico vs. Michigan State
Michigan State leads the nation in opponent three-point shooting percentage, allowing just 27.7% from deep. However, they struggle offensively, ranking 316th in three-point shooting percentage at 31.1%. New Mexico, meanwhile, is 27th in turnovers per possession and offsets Michigan State’s elite perimeter defense by ranking 29th nationally in the percentage of field goal attempts that come from two-point range.
Pick: New Mexico +7.5 (Greg’s Handicap: New Mexico +5.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Kent State vs. Stanford
Kent State has the most significant home/road defensive split in the country, allowing 10.4 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. They rank seventh in points per possession allowed away from home and sixth in opponent three-point shooting percentage (28.8%). However, Kent State also struggles offensively on the road, shooting just 28.3% from three-point range—ranking 349th nationally. Both teams play at a relatively slow pace, with Stanford ranking 256th in total possessions per game and Kent State 211th.
Pick: Under 142 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 135.5)
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