L.J. Cryer has logged 12 dimes in three March Madness games and hasn’t had a game below three assists. With his Over 2.5 fetching a juicy +155 price on Sunday, he’s highlighting our Tennessee vs. Houston props below.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer.
Two of the best defenses in college basketball will meet in Indianapolis on Sunday afternoon, as the Tennessee Volunteers and Houston Cougars vie for a trip to the Final Four.
There’s plenty of opportunity for profit from what should be a terrific game, and we’ve found three that present some of the best value for your enjoyment. Here are my Tennessee vs. Houston predictions and March Madness picks for March 30.
Tennessee vs Houston March Madness props
Read full analysis of each pick.
Tennessee vs Houston March Madness props
L.J. Cryer Over 2.5 assists (+155 at bet365)
When I saw the price for LJ Cryer’s assist total, I had to reload the page and rub my eyes to make sure I wasn’t missing something. A +155 price to drop three dimes? I raced to place that bet.
First, he’s been distributing the ball much more in the tournament than usual. His assist rate on the season sits at just 12.1%, but that’s gone up to 44% in the opening game against SIU Edwardsville, 16% against Gonzaga, and then 27% against Purdue.
His five assists against the Boilermakers were the most he’s had in 11 games, and just the second time he’s reached that high a mark all season. That’s due to a cold shooting performance, but also Purdue forcing him to give up the ball.
The Tennessee Volunteers will look to do the same. The Vols rank third nationally in 3-point defense, but they allow opponents to take a ton of them. They also showed against Kentucky that they won’t allow good shooters to get open looks.
Cryer leads the Houston Cougars in 3-point attempts and ranks second in accuracy, but he knows he can rely on his teammates for scoring, and the Vols won’t make it easy for him to do things on his own. He’s yet to miss the floor of three assists in the NCAA Tournament, and he won’t do so on Sunday.
Igor Milicic Jr. Under 7.5 points (-125 at bet365)
An 8-point performance against Kentucky was the first time Tennessee big man Igor Milicic Jr topped five points in the tournament. You have to go back to Auburn’s 83-72 win over Texas in their first SEC Tournament game to see the last time he breached this total.
Houston thrives on denying anything near the rim, forcing you into tough shots or taking perimeter efforts. And if it’s not at the rim, Milicic isn’t finishing it. He’s made just four of his 16 3-point attempts in those six postseason games, and he doesn’t get to the line frequently enough to rely on points there.
Houston allows less than 25% of opponent points near the rim, and ranks Top 5 in eFG%. That includes holding teams to just 44.5% inside the arc, helped by a block rate of 15.6% which also ranks Top 5 nationally.
Milicic’s usage rate has only topped 20% in two postseason games, where he scored seven against Auburn and eight against Kentucky. I don’t expect anywhere near that high a usage rate today and will take the Under without hesitation.
Zakai Zeigler 10+ assists (+350 at bet365)
In Houston’s Sweet 16 win over Purdue, the Cougars held the Boilermakers to just 60 points and 21 made baskets. Only one of those made field goals went unassisted, and Purdue point guard Braden Smith accounted for 15.
Smith’s assist rate on the season was 44.1%, the second-best mark in college basketball, but he posted 27% and 25% marks in the tournament. That number skyrocketed against the Cougars, but that wasn’t an anomaly.
In their win over Gonzaga in the second round, Houston again got hurt by an elite passer. Ryan Nembhard — sixth nationally in assist rate — notched 11 dimes from Gonzaga’s 26 made field goals, with the Bulldogs assisting on 19.
Zakai Zeigler ranks fourth nationally with an assist rate of 42% on the season, and he’s turned it up a notch in the tournament. He dropped 10 times against Kentucky, a team that ranked 58th in opposing assist rate this year, and assisted 12 of Tennessee’s 26 successful field goals against Wofford.
Zeigler has double-digit assists in six games this season, but two of those were defeats, including a 15-dime game against Mississippi. And if the game is tight, or Tennessee is losing late, he’ll be looked to for a spark.
Houston ranked 301st this season in opponent assist rate, and while this play has a higher risk, it represents one of the best values on the board. Skip Zeigler’s juiced assist total of 6.5 for -150, and instead take his alternate total with solid probability of success and a tasty payout.
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