Chattanooga has a chance to hand Samford its second consecutive league loss tonight when the Mocs host the Bulldogs in a Southern Conference matchup.
Samford had won six in a row and was 15-3 overall and 5-0 in SoCon play prior to Saturday’s loss to ETSU. The Bucs limited the Bulldogs’ potent offense in front of their second-largest home crowd ever. They snapped Samford’s 28-game home win streak.
The Mocs (12-7, 4-2) are coming off a pair of quality conference wins over Furman and Wofford. They beat Furman by four on the road and outlasted Wofford in an 83-81 overtime victory last week. Chattanooga trailed in the second half of both contests before rallying late.
The Bulldogs have won four of the last five meetings between these two programs, including the previous two games in Chattanooga.
Samford at Chattanooga Betting Odds
Chattanooga is a 1.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Samford while the Over/Under is at 156.5.
The Moneyline for Chattanooga is at -105 and at -114 for Samford.
Samford at Chattanooga On TV
The matchup between Samford and Chattanooga will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
Samford at Chattanooga Prediction
I predict Chattanooga squeaks out a win at home. I also predict this game to go over 156.5 points.
These are the two most efficient offenses in the league, with the Mocs shooting 47.3% and the Bulldogs shooting 47.2% from the field on the season. These are also two of the best 3-point shooting teams in the conference. Samford shoots 38.3% while Chattanooga knocks down shots at a 36.2% mark from the outside.
The Mocs have especially been scoring the ball really well lately and I anticipate them to keep that up. They’re averaging 83 points per game over their last three and have a trio of guards that can score at all levels.
Bash Wieland (13.4 points per game), Trey Bonham (13.2 PPG), and Honor Huff (13.1 PPG) will all be tough to guard and I think will be unfazed against a Samford defense that forces 17.21 turnovers per game, which ranks fourth in the country.
One thing that worries me about the total is if Samford’s bad offensive night against ETSU lingers over into this matchup. An offense that is as effective as the Bulldogs is almost certain to go on a cold stretch at some point, but they didn’t shoot the ball terribly, they just had a lot of turnovers and a bad shot selection. Those should be cleaned up here.
An area where the Mocs must play well is guarding the 3-point line. According to KenPom, they allow opponents to shoot 37% from the outside. Samford’s offense can hit a barrage of 3s in what seems like just a few minutes, so running the Bulldogs off the 3-point line will be critical.
Chattanooga allowed Furman to shoot 43% and Wofford to shoot 37% from 3.
Like the Mocs, the Bulldogs have a plethora of guys that can score. Trey Fort and Jaden Brownell both average 14 PPG while Rylan Jones and Collin Holloway both average just over 10 PPG.
There should be plenty of firepower between both offenses.
ETSU defeated Samford because it won the turnover battle and crashed the offensive glass. It also limited the Bulldogs from dictating the tempo. Unlike ETSU, the Mocs probably have a better chance of trying to outscore the Bulldogs, but they’ll likely need to have some of ETSU’s recipe in their game plan.
I think the Mocs are playing better basketball right now and have been locked in since losing to UNC Greensboro on a buzzer-beater on Jan. 9.
Chattanooga is 4-4 against the spread at home while Samford is 2-6 ATS on the road.
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
