Can BYU cap its already successful 2024 season with one more victory?
The Cougars will face fellow Big 12 foe Colorado in Saturday’s Alamo Bowl (5:30 p.m. MST, ABC), a matchup that’s anticipated to be one of the best during the bowl season between two teams that finished in a four-way tie atop the conference standings.
What’s going to happen when the two teams meet in San Antonio?
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The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and the video game version of the contest projects a high-scoring matchup.
How the BYU simulation was set up
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
Depth chart movements were also implemented — being bowl season, that included taking guys like safety Crew Wakely and wide receiver Kody Epps off the depth chart for BYU, as they are in the transfer portal.
How accurate was the simulation of BYU’s last game?
The actual score: BYU 30, Houston 18
College Football 25 simulation final score: BYU 35, Houston 23
My analysis: The simulation and the actual game didn’t play out exactly the same way, but there were some similarities.
BYU fell behind early in both, before taking control — though Houston was able to stick around maybe longer than they should have.
In that sense, the simulation was a solid predictor for how the real game ended up.
How did the Alamo Bowl simulation between BYU and Colorado play out?
Final score: BYU 37, Colorado 27
Key sequence: The Cougars moved out to an early 17-0 lead before the Buffaloes finally responded and went on a long touchdown drive to make it 17-7.
BYU had its own answer, though.
The Cougars moved the ball 80 yards in 12 plays — converting three third downs on the possession — and scored with 1:57 left until halftime on a 6-yard Chase Roberts touchdown catch in the corner of the end zone.
Roberts converted two of those third-down attempts, while LJ Martin converted the other, and with that score the Cougars created enough separation to withstand a late rally from Colorado.
How the simulation transpired: Unlike its final few games of the regular season, BYU got the momentum rolling early against Colorado.
Roberts made a 28-yard grab on the Cougars’ opening possession and that was followed by a Keelan Marion catch down to the Colorado 1, helping lead to a Martin 1-yard touchdown run and a 7-0 Cougars lead.
BYU forced Colorado to punt on its first two drives — one possession ended in a three and out and another stalled when Tyler Batty recorded a third-down sack — and the Cougars turned their next two drives into points.
First, there was a 49-yard Will Ferrin field goal, then a 68-yard touchdown pass to Roberts in the final two minutes of the first quarter to give BYU a 17-0 lead.
Eventually, Colorado made a game of it. The Buffaloes turned a Jojo Phillips fumble at the end of a long catch into a touchdown drive, aided by a 28-yard diving catch from Heisman winner Travis Hunter. That led to a 7-yard Sav’ell Smalls TD catch and a 17-7 game.
That was followed by the aforementioned drive by BYU to push its lead back out to 24-7.
Colorado was able to strike quickly before halftime, as Hunter caught a 17-yard pass from Shedeur Sanders with 50 seconds until the break.
That touchdown gave Colorado a chance to cut the lead down to single digits in the third quarter, as the Buffaloes received the ball first in the second half.
BYU’s defense, though, forced back-to-back punts from Colorado to start the second half, then the Cougars capitalized on an 89-yard drive that ended with a Marion 9-yard touchdown catch with 2:17 left in the third quarter to make it 31-14.
While the Cougars’ offense began to bog down in the second half after firing on all cylinders in the first half, BYU was able to add two fourth-quarter field goals on short fields — one after Colorado failed to convert a fourth down on its side of the field, and another after BYU recovered an onside kick.
With Colorado trailing 34-14 with just under five minutes to play, the Buffaloes put together a pair of touchdown drives, resulting in a 1-yard Isaiah Augustave TD run and a 69-yard Hunter scoring grab to help make the score more respectable.
Star players: Retzlaff starred for the Cougars, throwing for 437 yards and three touchdowns. Roberts was his main target, as he had eight catches for 142 yards and two touchdowns.
Martin added 85 rushing yards and a touchdown.
BYU also finished with six sacks, led by 1.5 from Batty.
Sanders, meanwhile, shined for Colorado, throwing for 417 yards and three touchdowns.
Hunter had the best receiving day among a group of star receivers, finishing with nine receptions for 172 yards and two touchdowns.
Key stats: The Cougars had 511 yards of total offense, while Colorado put up 423.
BYU, though, had the edge in third-down conversions — making 6 of 12, to 3 of 11 for the Buffaloes — to help the Cougars overcome losing the turnover battle, 1-0.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: While the passing numbers again were inflated for BYU, a common them during previous simulations on Colleger Football 25 this season, this simulation could happen in reality — there’s the potential for a blowout in this one if one team is more motivated than the other.
This game is viewed as one of the best non-playoff matchups, though, and could as easily be a tight, back-and-forth contest, something that didn’t happen in the simulation.
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