This time last year, Arizona State and Vanderbilt were routinely being picked to finish at or near the bottom of their respective conferences. It was understandable given Vanderbilt went 2-10 and Arizona State finished 3-9 the year prior.
There was nothing obvious to indicate that significant improvement was on the horizon, yet it came anyway. The Commodores rose up to reach a bowl for the first time since 2018 and pulled off one of the SEC’s all-time great upsets by taking down then-No. 1 Alabama.
College Football Playoff odds: Searching for this year’s Indiana, Arizona State? Value long shot bets for 2025
Chip Patterson
Arizona State took things even further by winning the Big 12, reaching the College Football Playoff and pushing Texas to overtime in the Peach Bowl. Both teams are examples of how quickly things can turn around in college football. Not only did the ‘Dores and Devils get bowl eligible, they each became major stories in the sport just one season after languishing in irrelevance. That should give hope to teams like Mississippi State, Purdue and Stanford — all of which are expected to struggle in 2025.
As the new season approaches, we’re taking stock of the Power Four teams that missed bowl games last season and categorizing them based on the likelihood that they’ll go bowling this year. Just remember: Arizona State and Vanderbilt would have been in one of the last two categories entering last season and look what happened. After its surprising 2024 success, FanDuel Sportsbook gives Arizona State the best odds to win the Big 12.
Guarantee it
We’ll guarantee these teams will go bowling
Utah
Last season: 5-7
The last time Utah went consecutive seasons without reaching a bowl was 2012-13, and it’s not about to happen again. The Utes were a quarterback disaster last season following another injury to Cam Rising. The new coordinator/quarterback combo of Jason Beck and Devon Dampier from New Mexico should do wonders in helping the Utes return to bowl eligibility and perhaps even Big 12 title contention.
Kansas
Last season: 5-7
Kansas was 1-5 in one-possession games last season on its way to a 5-7 mark. But even after a 1-4 start, the Jayhawks stayed composed enough to beat an 11-win Iowa State team, an 11-win BYU team and a nine-win Colorado team in November. The culture is strong under fifth-year coach Lance Leipold, especially with sixth-year quarterback Jalon Daniels back to run the show again. Five Big 12 home games inside a newly renovated Memorial Stadium will also help KU return to the postseason.
Auburn
Last season: 5-7
“I’m not a fool,” Auburn coach Hugh Freeze said last month. “I think we’ve got to go to a bowl game.”
However, Freeze may be a fool if he thinks that’s all Auburn needs to accomplish in his third season. Expectations should be far higher than a mere 6-6 mark with the nation’s No. 8 transfer class and a manageable schedule.
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Trending up
These teams are looking like bowl squads
Houston
Last season: 4-8
Houston is positioned for a Year 2 jump under Willie Fritz after rebooting the offense with a new coordinator in Slade Nagle, who was with Fritz at Tulane. Ex-Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman should have a long leash to fulfill the potential he’s flashed over the years. The Cougars should, at minimum, go 2-1 in non conference before playing five league home games, which positions them to make a bowl.
Florida State
Last season: 2-10
Even after a 2-10 campaign, bowl eligibility looks probable for Florida State. The Seminoles’ schedule features some big tests, but it also has enough patsies to ensure a high floor. With new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a new quarterback in Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos, the ceiling may not be as high as FSU fans would like. But it’s hard to fathom the ‘Noles finishing below .500 for a fourth time in six seasons under Mike Norvell.
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Flip a coin
These could go either way
Michigan State
Last season: 5-7
There are enough winnable games on Michigan State’s schedule to make bowl eligibility practical in Year 2 under Jonathan Smith. Aidan Chiles took his lumps at quarterback during his redshirt freshman season but should be better for it now. The defense has solid depth across the board, and the offensive line has nowhere to go but up. Taking down Boston College in Week 2 would likely mean that a 3-6 Big Ten record gets the Spartans into a bowl. There aren’t many obvious league victories on the slate, but the Spartans miss both Ohio State and Oregon.
Cincinnati
Last season: 5-7
Cincinnati improved to 5-2 with a mid-October victory over eventual Big 12 champion Arizona State and then lost five straight to close the season the 2024 season. Such is the unpredictability and parity of the Big 12. With quarterback Brendan Sorsby in his second season in the system and the intimidating Dontay Corleone anchoring the defense, the Bearcats are well-positioned to finish with more dignity this time around. Whether a mere six wins would earn third-year coach Scott Satterfield another season is an entirely different question.
Virginia
Last season: 5-7
Without Clemson, Miami or SMU on the schedule, reaching bowl eligibility should be mandatory for Virginia in Year 4 under Tony Elliot — especially with quarterback Chandler Morris on campus after a prolific 2024 at North Texas. Four opponents are in Year 1 of new coaching regimes, and five others finished with losing records last season. Louisville and Duke are the only FBS teams on the schedule that finished with winning records and return their coaches.
Wake Forest
Last season: 4-8
Jake Dickert should be able create some momentum in Year 1 against a simple schedule. The Demon Deacons play no Power Four teams outside the ACC and don’t play Clemson, Louisville or Miami. Of course, Dickert doesn’t have Cam Ward or John Mateer at quarterback like he did at Washington State. Instead, former Auburn and South Carolina signal-caller Robby Ashford is battling with Charlotte transfer Deshawn Purdie for the QB job.
Oklahoma State
Last season: 3-9
The only continuity within the Oklahoma State program is 21st-year coach Mike Gundy, who conducted a roster and staff purge after last season’s 3-9 (0-9 Big 12) disaster. The Cowboys have never missed a bowl in consecutive seasons under Gundy, and they’ll have to sweat in order to keep that streak alive. There is not a proven quarterback, and the nonconference slate features a death march to Oregon. If anyone else were on the sideline, Oklahoma State would be in the “longshots” category. But Gundy has made a career of surpassing expectations.
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An uphill battle
Going bowling will be a challenge for these teams
Kentucky
Last season: 4-8
The dissolution of SEC divisions did no favors for Kentucky, which used to play Mississippi State as an annual cross-division rival. Oh, what the Wildcats would give to have the lowly Bulldogs on the docket in 2025. Many of the old East Division foes still on UK’s schedule are also on more stable ground than they have been during much of 13th-year coach Mark Stoops’ tenure. Even annual rival Louisville is trending up. The nation’s No. 10 transfer class will give UK a shot at bowl eligibility, but the 10-win seasons of 2018 and 2021 are starting to feel like a distant memory.
Arizona
Last season: 4-8
Arizona will unquestionably be more competitive in Year 2 under Brent Brennan after a 4-8 campaign marked by six losses of at least 21 points. Even with significant statistical improvement on both sides of the football, bowl eligibility could still be a tall order. Both Big 12 schools with first-year coaches (West Virginia and UCF) are missing from a docket that features five league road games.
UCF
Last season: 4-8
UCF is attempting to turn back the clock and relive the glory days of 2017 by re-hiring Scott Frost. A 16-31 mark in four-plus seasons at Nebraska took the shine off Frost, and the Knights now play in a much tougher conference. Any ideations of immediate greatness are misguided as UCF welcomes more than 40 transfers into a rebuild that begins against a schedule that includes five league road games.
UCLA
Last season: 5-7
The pairing of high-profile transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava with first-year offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri will draw the most eyeballs. But there are probably more questions on the defense, as a transfer-heavy unit will need some playmakers to emerge. UCLA’s bowl chances may be rather clear by the end of a Week 1 showdown with former Pac-12 foe Utah. A win there could set the Bruins on a path to the postseason. A loss will make bowl eligibility a long, uphill climb.
Wisconsin
Last season: 5-7
Snagging Luke Fickell from Cincinnati seemed like a home run hire for Wisconsin. But he’s just 12-13 through two seasons and faces a treacherous path to bowl eligibility in Year 3. In addition to a game at Alabama, the Badgers face a Big Ten gauntlet that includes seven foes that finished with winning records in the league last season. Among them are Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon. Four league wins will likely be a necessity to go bowling, and it’s hard to see where they’ll come from.
Maryland
Last season: 4-8
Maryland was uncharacteristically non-competitive in 2024 after three straight bowl appearances under Mike Locksley. Looking at an overhauled roster, it’s unclear where progress will come from in 2025. But it helps that the Terrapins miss Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon.
Longshots
Reaching six victories seems highly improbable
Stanford
Last season: 3-9
Interim coach Frank Reich faces a tall task. The Cardinal have stumbled to four consecutive three-win seasons, and there’s no reason to think 2025 will be different. A nonconference schedule that includes games at Hawaii, at BYU and against Notre Dame does the Cardinal no favors. If Reich gets Stanford to a bowl, it will be more impressive than anything he did as an NFL head coach.
Northwestern
Last season: 4-8
Third-year coach David Braun showed plenty of acumen after he was thrust into the job in 2023 by leading the Wildcats to a surprising 8-5 mark. But last season’s 4-8 campaign was a reminder of the challenges Northwestern faces as a program in the NIL era. Attaining bowl eligibility against a tough schedule will require SMU transfer quarterback Preston Stone to jell with an unproven group of receivers to reverse the fortunes of an offense that ranked last among all Power Four teams in 2024.
Mississippi State
Last season: 2-10
Mississippi State likely has enough firepower and defensive competence to spring a couple of surprises in Jeff Lebby’s second season. Even reaching four or five victories would mark solid progress after last season’s non-competitive 2-10 beginning. A bowl game looks out of the question, unless there are some unforeseen collapses from some of the highly touted opponents on the slate.
Purdue
Last season: 1-11
Purdue dealt with painful — but predictable — series of portal exits amid the coaching transition from Ryan Walters to Barry Odom. This is full rebuild, and Purdue looks ill-positioned to spend big on talent relative to its Big Ten peers. Geting to a bowl game appears to be a long-term aspiration more than a realistic short-term goal.
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