How far has Oregon come in three seasons with Dan Lanning?
On Sept. 3, 2022, No. 3 Georgia beat No. 11 Oregon 49-3 in Lanning’s debut as the Ducks’ coach. In our Week 11 Bowl Projections, we have Oregon and Georgia in the College Football Playoff championship game. In this scenario, the Ducks are the higher seed.
A lot can change through the next five weeks, but that is the pick for now.
The first set of College Football Playoff rankings have been unveiled. Sporting News will have weekly bowl projections leading up to the unveiling of the first 12-team playoff field on Dec. 8.
The first round of the new CFP will have one game on Friday, Dec. 20, and three on Saturday, Dec. 21. The quarterfinals will be played at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31), Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1).
The semifinals will be played at the Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 9) and Cotton Bowl Classic (Jan. 10). The CFP national championship is Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
Here are our bowl projections for Week 11.
MORE: Picks against the spread for Week 11 Top 25 games
College football bowl predictions 2024
There are 35 bowls involving FBS teams outside the College Football Playoff this season. A look at our projections for those matchups:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 14 | Camellia Bowl | Western Michigan vs. James Madison |
| Dec. 17 | Boca Raton Bowl | Sam Houston vs. East Carolina |
| Dec. 18 | Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl | Texas State vs. Fresno State |
| Dec. 18 | LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk | UNLV vs. Washington State |
| Dec. 19 | R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl | Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky |
| Dec. 20 | Staffdna Cure Bowl | Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina |
| Dec. 20 | Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl | UConn vs. Virginia Tech |
| Dec. 23 | Myrtle Beach Bowl | Miami, Ohio vs. Arkansas State |
| Dec. 23 | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Toledo vs. Colorado State |
| Dec. 24 | Hawaii Bowl | Tulane vs. Hawaii |
| Dec. 26 | Detroit Bowl | Ohio vs. Michigan State |
| Dec. 26 | Guaranteed Rate Bowl | West Virginia vs Nebraska |
| Dec. 26 | 68 Ventures Bowl | Georgia Southern vs. Eastern Michigan |
| Dec. 27 | Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl | Army vs. Cincinnati |
| Dec. 27 | Birmingham Bowl | Baylor vs. Arkansas |
| Dec. 27 | Autozone Liberty Bowl | Kansas State vs. South Carolina |
| Dec. 27 | SDS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl | Colorado vs. Wisconsin |
| Dec. 27 | DirecTV Holiday Bowl | Wake Forest vs. Arizona State |
| Dec. 28 | Wasabi Fenway Bowl | Memphis vs. Syracuse |
| Dec. 28 | Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl | Georgia Tech vs. Michigan |
| Dec. 28 | Isleta New Mexico Bowl | Liberty vs. San Diego State |
| Dec. 28 | Pop-Tarts Bowl | Pitt vs. Texas Tech |
| Dec. 28 | Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presented by Gin & Juice | Bowling Green vs. San Jose State |
| Dec. 28 | Go Bowling Military Bowl | Navy vs. North Carolina |
| Dec. 28 | Valero Alamo Bowl | Iowa State vs. Washington |
| Dec. 28 | Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl | North Texas vs. Oregon State |
| Dec. 30 | Transperfect Music City Bowl | SMU vs. Vanderbilt |
| Dec. 31 | Reliaquest Bowl | Illinois vs. Ole Miss |
| Dec. 31 | Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl | Duke vs. USC |
| Dec. 31 | Cheez-It Citrus Bowl | Iowa vs. Texas A&M |
| Dec. 31 | Texas Bowl | TCU vs. Missouri |
| Jan. 2 | Taxslayer Gator Bowl | Louisville vs. LSU |
| Jan. 3 | Servpro First Responder Bowl | South Florida vs. Marshall |
| Jan. 3 | Duke’s Mayo Bowl | Clemson vs. Minnesota |
| Jan. 4 | Bahamas Bowl | Northern Illinois vs. Jacksonville State |
College Football Playoff first-round predictions
A look at the four College Football Playoff first-round matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those first-round games will be played on campus:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 20 | First-Round CFP game | No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Tennessee |
| Dec. 21 | First-Round CFP game | No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State |
| Dec. 21 | First-Round CFP game | No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 6 Texas |
| Dec. 21 | First-Round CFP game | No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Penn State |
The first round features three Big Ten at-large teams. Ohio State hosts Boise State, and Penn State hosts Notre Dame in what would be unbelievable atmospheres. An all-SEC matchup between Alabama and Texas would be the third meeting in as many years between the schools, and Indiana would round out the first round with a trip to Knoxville. The Hoosiers and Volunteers rank third and fourth, respectively in total defense this season.
BENDER: Breaking down the first bubble, with Notre Dame, Alabama last teams in
College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions
A look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 31 | Vrbo Fiesta Bowl | No. 4 BYU vs. No. 5 Ohio State |
| Jan. 1 | Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl | No. 3 Miami vs. No. 6 Texas |
| Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential | No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Tennessee |
| Jan. 1 | Allstate Sugar Bowl | No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 10 Notre Dame |
Would Notre Dame really be the only team to pull off a first-round upset? That is our projection for now, and it is worth knowing that six of the eight teams here are in the top 12 in total defense. Miami and BYU – the projected ACC and Big 12 champions – are the exception. Miami has not played Texas since the legendary 46-3 blowout in the 1991 Cotton Bowl. Ohio State hasn’t played BYU since the 1993 Holiday Bowl. Oregon and Tennessee last played in 2013, and Georgia and Notre Dame did a home-and-home in 2017 and 2019. Can we put this round on campus, too?
College Football Playoff semifinal predictions
A look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Jan. 9 | Capital One Orange Bowl (semifinal) | No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 6 Texas |
| Jan. 10 | Cotton Bowl Classic (semifinal) | No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Ohio State |
These are potential three-matches given the seeding. Oregon beat Ohio State 32-31 on Oct. 12, and the Buckeyes and Ducks are still on a course to meet in the Big Ten championship game. Georgia beat Texas 30-15 on Oct. 19, and those teams are on a more complicated path toward the SEC championship game given five teams have one loss in conference play.
College Football Playoff championship pick
A look at the College Football Playoff championship matchup for the 2024-25 season. That game is scheduled for Monday, Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Jan. 20 | CFP National championship | No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia |
Lanning was an assistant under Kirby Smart from 2018-21. This would be a chance for Smart to win a third national championship. The quarterback matchup between Dillon Gabriel and Carson Beck is a contrast of styles, and we would get a chance to see if the Ducks can break through and win the program’s first national title.
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