What the first two rounds of the College Football Playoff ultimately proved is largely a matter of one’s point of view. The opening eight games offered plenty of fodder for the “schedules matter” crowd, but also proved pedigree and conference prestige offer little protection in the face of postseason randomness.
Advertisement
Indiana and SMU’s beatdowns had observers in an uproar before Tennessee and Clemson caught similar colds. It took three and a half quarters for Penn State’s athletic advantage to finally overwhelm Boise State. Arizona State took Texas to overtime and Georgia lost to Notre Dame by more than Indiana did, so what was all that arguing for?
If you want certainty heading into the semifinals it’s this: Ohio State is the favorite, and it’s not all that close.
The Buckeyes are +110 to win the title on BetMGM, with Texas and Notre Dame tied at +350 and Penn State at +500.
College football national title odds
OSU was at or near the top of the national title odds all year, and their playoff performance has been a declaration of malicious intent.
Tennessee never had a chance in Columbus. The Volunteers walked off the bus in Round 1 straight into a combine thresher, going down 21 points in 12 minutes and ending up lucky to lose by only 25.
Maybe the Vols were overrated, maybe not. But everyone agreed Oregon wasn’t, and what Ohio State did to them was even worse. The Ducks woke up Wednesday expecting to play a football game, perhaps similar to the one they played in October against these same Buckeyes. They ended up trapped in a phone booth with a rhinoceros; surrounded by violence with nowhere to run.
It wasn’t that OSU looked bigger and faster — or not just that, because boy did they ever — it was that they did things no other team in the Playoff field looked capable of. Jeremiah Smith is already beyond college defenses, and he was a bull let loose from the chute in the first half. He stomped and bucked around the ring while the Oregon secondary tried desperately to hang on, but his speed and strength left bodies littered on the ground in the wake of his 161 yards and two 40-plus-yard touchdowns.
Fellow wideout Emeka Egbuka had a 42-yard highlight score himself, and running back TreVeyon Henderson averaged 11.8 yards per carry while scoring twice. The defense sacked Dillon Gabriel eight times and held Jordan James to 14 yards on the ground. The game was over in 30 minutes and left no doubt: Ohio State is the team to beat.
Advertisement
They will face Texas next, and while the Longhorns have what is considered to be the most complete defense in the sport, ASU’s Cam Skattebo took on the entire unit himself and nearly prevailed. With four minutes to go in the game, he had more yards from scrimmage than Texas.
Texas’ offense is in the midst of an identity crisis, unable to determine whether it can run the ball or not. The Longhorns had 31 yards on the ground in the SEC title game (minus-27 from sacks), 292 against Clemson in Round 1, then just 53 against Arizona State. Quinn Ewers has been solid, but the Longhorns tend to spend long chunks of games dormant on offense before their quarterback does just enough to get them across the finish line.
After the display OSU put on, Texas better be in top gear the moment they wake up Friday. Texas’ offensive line will have to be miles better than it was against the Sun Devils and the pass rush will have to bother Buckeye QB Will Howard in a way that Oregon could not. Texas can try to sell out to stop Smith, but Ohio State has shown plenty of other avenues are available when needed, so disrupting the backfield is Texas’ best shot. How consistently the Longhorns can do that will likely determine the outcome. They won’t be afforded any lapses, even if it’s a virtual home game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Texas may need to play perfectly to match Ohio State’s firepower, but at least it has a puncher’s chance. After two games for each, it’s not clear if Penn State or Notre Dame have that kind of juice. They both feature steel-trap defenses, good luck to any running back who faces either team, but there appears to be an offensive gap between both to the Longhorns, and then a chasm between them and OSU.
With no ability to run against Georgia, Notre Dame’s best offense was a kickoff return touchdown. Its second-best was a 13-yard touchdown pass on a short field situation created by a turnover. The Irish slogged their way to victory thanks to Riley Leonard scrambles (14 runs for 80 yards compared to 15 completions for 90) and an oppressive front seven.
Advertisement
Penn State won’t be any easier to run against, especially if likely first-rounder Abdul Carter is back from injury, so it may again be up to Leonard to engineer some semblance of ball movement. Penn State has a more rounded attack, but its firepower depends entirely on which Drew Allar shows up. The junior has the size, accuracy and arm strength of a pro quarterback, but he doesn’t always wield those traits like one. He’s capable of tremendous deep balls and pinpoint throws into crowded spaces, but also passed for fewer than 200 yards in both Playoff games.
The Irish have the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense (13.6 points per game). They’ll likely force Penn State to lean on Allar. How he responds will likely determine if the Nittany Lions move on or go home.
Whichever team advances will be the underdog in the title game. If Texas manages to smother Ohio State’s offense, the Longhorns would be in prime position against Notre Dame or Penn State. Ohio State is a 6.5-point favorite in the semifinal (while Notre Dame is only a 1.5-point favorite against Penn State) and Texas is still tied for the second-best title odds. That shows the relative view of the strength of the Longhorns.
If the Buckeyes continue to look like they have, they’d be a clear favorite in the title game.
(Photo of Emeka Egbuka: Harry How / Getty Images)
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
