We are not likely to see a rash of upsets in the College Football Playoff next season, but if the semifinals produce four top-end teams like the men’s NCAA Tournament managed to do this cycle with four No. 1 seeds advancing, fans should be in for a treat. Getting there is the hard part — and so is projecting the 12 teams to make the field and the four that ultimately get to college football’s version of the Final Four.
In the first year of expansion, Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame and Penn State all won multiple games to advance and, surprisingly, none were conference champions. The Buckeyes were the No. 8 seed while Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish were seeded seventh, each disposing of higher seeds in the semifinals to reach the national title game.
Playoff seeding changes could happen in 2025, but we’re not going to see further expansion — at the earliest — until next season. Currently, the highest-rated conference champions get the top four seeds and first-round byes while others are seeded by the selection committee.
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For this exercise, revised our way-too-early playoff projections from January a bit, now that rosters and depth charts are better established in spring camp.
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