The selling point of the 12-team College Football Playoff is that more teams will be involved in the College Football Playoff chase – and that, in turn, protects the sanctity of the regular season.
We’re about to find out how that works heading into November. The rules of making the College Football Playoff have changed. Last year heading into Week 10, there were 13 Power 5 teams with one loss or less. A two-loss never made the four-team playoff.
How much more involvement is there heading into Week 10 this year? Take the automatic Group of 5 berth off the board – because we know there will be only one team. That leaves 24 Power 4 schools – a number that increases to 25 when you include Notre Dame – fighting for the other 11 spots. That means there are almost twice as many teams involved in this chase assuming teams that lose three regular-season games are out.
Here is a conference-by-conference look at those teams still in the hunt using those rules:
Power 4 teams with two losses or less
| CONF. | NO LOSSES | ONE LOSS | TWO LOSSES |
| ACC | Miami (8-0), Pitt (7-0) | SMU (7-1), Clemson (6-1) | Syracuse (5-2), Duke (6-2) |
| Big Ten | Oregon (8-0), Indiana (8-0), Penn State (6-1) | Ohio State (6-1) | Illinois (6-2) |
| Big 12 | BYU (8-0), Iowa State (7-0) | Kansas State (7-1) | Arizona State (5-2), Colorado (6-2) |
| SEC | Texas A&M (7-1), Texas (7-1), Georgia (6-1), Tennessee (6-1) | LSU (6-2), Alabama (6-2), Ole Miss (6-2), Missouri (6-2) | |
| Independent | Notre Dame (7-1) |
November is going to be fun, right?
Each week, Sporting News breaks down the 12-team College Football Playoff, with first-round byes, first-round games and bubble teams. Here is how that looks heading into Week 10:
Moved in: Notre Dame, Texas A&M
Dropped out: LSU, Iowa State
The Sporting News
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
No. 1 Oregon (8-0, Big Ten champion)
The Ducks beat Illinois 38-9 and have outscored two opponents 73-9 since taking over the No. 1 ranking. Oregon outgained the Illini 363-89 in the first half and 527-293 for the game. Dillon Gabriel (18 of 26, 291 yards, 3 TDs, INT) added a rushing TD and has re-emerged in the Heisman Trophy race. Oregon can take control of the Big Ten championship race with a win at Michigan in Week 10.
No. 2 Georgia (6-1, SEC champion)
Georgia remains our projected SEC champion despite being in the one-loss mix in conference play. It’s prove-it time for Carson Beck, who ranks seventh in the Heisman odds but has eight TDs and eight interceptions in five SEC games. The defense and running game showed up against Texas in Week 8, and that momentum should carry into this week’s matchup with Florida.
No. 3 Miami (8-0, ACC champion)
The Hurricanes did not have any drama in a 36-14 victory in the in-state rivalry matchup with Florida State. Cam Ward (22 of 35 yards, 208 yards) caught a TD pass, which could come in handy during his Heisman campaign in November. Damien Martinez (15-148, 2 TDs) led a rushing attack that had 230 yards, and Miami did not have a turnover. Duke – and former Miami coach Manny Diaz – is up next.
No. 4 BYU (8-0, Big 12 champion)
Why is BYU in? The Cougars have an easier path than Iowa State in the Big 12 – and they passed a road test at UCF. BYU flashed a big-play offense in the first half against the Knights and built a 17-0 lead. Jake Retzlaff (16 of 24, 228 yards, 2 TDs) received run support from LJ Martin (15-101, TD). The Cougars forced two turnovers and scored a huge road victory in Big 12 play. Now, BYU has a bye week to get ready for a renewed rivalry at Utah – the first matchup between the schools in Big 12 play.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 10 of the college football season:
No. 12 Boise State (6-1, Mountain West champion) at No. 5 Penn State (7-0, Big Ten at-large)
The Broncos remain the highest ranked at-large team, and the only unbeaten Group of 5 team left is Army. Boise State has a better path — not to mention a Heisman Trophy candidate in Ashton Jeanty, who scored the game-winning TD in a 29-24 victory against UNLV. The Nittany Lions beat the Badgers 28-13, but starting quarterback Drew Allar missed the second half with a knee injury. The top-five showdown with Ohio State awaits, and a victory is needed to stay in the Big Ten championship hunt. Penn State has allowed 15.2 points per game in Big Ten play.
No. 11 Texas A&M (7-1, SEC at-large) at No. 6 Ohio State (6-1, Big Ten at-large)
The Aggies move into our playoff picture. Texas A&M is the lone unbeaten team left in SEC conference play, but a non-conference loss to Notre Dame makes them the fourth team. Backup quarterback Marcel Reed rushed for three TDs in the second half of a 38-23 victory against LSU, and the Aggies rushed for 242 yards. Ohio State survived in a 21-17 victory against Nebraska, but the Buckeyes have some questions on the offensive line moving into the showdown with Penn State. Will Howard (13 of 16, 221 yards, 3 TDs, INT) gets a second to lead a signature road victory for Ohio State and get back in the Big Ten championship mix.
No. 10 Notre Dame (7-1, Independent at-large) at No. 7 Texas (7-1, SEC at-large)
How fun would this first-round matchup be? Texas survived an upset bid at No. 25 Vanderbilt in a 27-24 victory. Quinn Ewers (27 of 37, 288 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) shook off a few mistakes, but the Longhorns had 10 penalties for 107 yards. A bye week comes at the right time. Notre Dame hammered Navy 51-14 with the help of 265 rushing yards and a defense that took advantage of six turnovers. The loss to Northern Illinois will be a talking point, but it’s not enough to keep the Irish out right now.
No. 9 Tennessee (6-1, SEC at-large) at No. 8 Clemson (6-1, ACC at-large)
The Vols and Tigers stay in this same matchup. Both teams had bye weeks to prepare for November, and this matchup has a few twists. Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik has 20 TDs and two interceptions since the season-opening loss to Georgia. Dylan Sampson leads the Vols with 838 yards and 17 TDs. Tennessee will get a shot at Georgia in a few weeks, too. Clemson plays Louisville in Week 10. Tennessee plays Kentucky.
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Iowa State (7-0, Big 12)
All the Cyclones did was have a bye week. What went wrong? Texas A&M’s emergence in the SEC is going to make it tougher for the Big 12 to get a second bid. Iowa State ranks second among Power 4 schools with a plus-9 turnover margin and lead the Big 12 in scoring defense (14.4 ppg.). Three of the last five games are at home, starting with Texas Tech in Week 10.
Indiana (8-0, Big Ten)
The Hoosiers scored a 31-17 victory against Washington – which was huge considering quarterback Kurtis Rourke (thumb) missed the game. Backup quarterback Tayven Jackson (11 of 19, 124 yards, TD, INT) managed a run-heavy attack against the Huskies, and Indiana is right on the fringe as a potential fourth Big Ten team under first-year coach Curt Cignetti. Is a trip to Michigan State in Week 10 a potential trap game before the season-defining home stretch that features Michigan and Ohio State?
BENDER: Can Indiana bust up the top of the Big Ten race?
Pitt (7-0, ACC)
The Panthers took advantage of five interceptions – including three pick-sixes – in a 41-3 blowout against Syracuse. Safety Rasheem Biles led that defensive effort with 12 tackles, a sack and one of those interception returns for TDs. Pitt’s November schedule is tough – starting with a road trip to SMU in Week 10. Still, Pat Narduzzi continues to manage an impressive ACC success story.
Kansas State (7-1, Big 12)
Kansas State survived the Sunflower Showdown in a 29-27 victory where Chris Tennant nailed a 51-yard field goal with 1:27 remaining against the Jayhawks. Avery Johnson (19 of 34, 253 yards, 2 TDs) has not thrown an interception in two games, and the Wildcats added 226 rushing yards. Kansas State gets Iowa State in the regular-season finale and could get a shot to correct their mistake against BYU. A road trip to Houston is the first step.
Alabama (6-2, SEC)
Look who’s back in the mix? The Crimson Tide bullied Missouri in a 34-0 blowout. Alabama put up 271 rushing yards on 7.3 yards per carry with four players who had at least 40 yards rushing. Jalen Milroe (16 of 26, 215 yards) added 50 yards and a TD, and the defense limited Missouri to 3 of 13 on third down. Alabama is at the top of the two-loss heap and still has the victory against Georgia in its back pocket.
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