College Football Playoff bracket predictions: Simulation reveals surprising 2024 CFP picks, sleepers, upsets

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With first-round matchups completed, the 2024-25 College Football Playoff bracket advances to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. The second round begins on Dec. 31 when No. 3 seed Boise State takes on No. 6 seed Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, which kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET. Then the action continues with three games on Saturday beginning with No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas in the Peach Bowl at 1 p.m. ET. That’s followed by No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State at the Rose Bowl at 5 p.m. ET and then No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl at 8:45 p.m. ET. 

The latest College Football Playoff odds list Penn State (-10.5), Texas (-13.5), Ohio State (-2.5) and Georgia (-1.5) as favorites in those CFP quarterfinal matchups. Meanwhile, Texas is now the +330 favorite to win it all in the updated CFP futures odds followed by Ohio State at +360 and Oregon at +425. Before locking in any College Football Playoff bracket picks or national championship bets, be sure to see the latest College Football Playoff predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it is 43-35 on top-rated picks during the 2024 season. It also nailed all four winners in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen impressive returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds and college football betting lines for the 2024-25 College Football Playoff bracket. Head here to see every pick.

Top 2024-25 College Football Playoff bracket picks  

One team the model is high on for the College Football Playoff is No. 6 seed Penn State, who it has dominating No. 3 Boise State on its way to a deep run in the bracket. The Nittany Lions are coming off a dominant win over SMU in the first round, winning 38-10 despite only putting up 325 yards of total offense.

The Penn State defense held SMU’s top-10 scoring offense to 253 yards and 10 points while forcing three turnovers and scoring twice in the win. The Nittany Lions now rank sixth in the nation in scoring defense (15.9 ppg) and have held five of their last six opponents to 106 yards on the ground or less.

Boise State is heavily dependent on its rushing attack with Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty piling up 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns on the ground this season. Jeanty did rush for 192 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-34 loss to Oregon early in the season but the Broncos haven’t faced that caliber of defense since and the model is predicting that Penn State slows Jeanty down enough to advance. See the full College Football Playoff bracket predictions here. 

How to make College Football Playoff bracket picks

The model has also simulated the rest of the College Football Playoff bracket, and it’s calling for multiple surprises, setting up a shocking title game. You can only get complete CFP bracket picks at SportsLine.

So what College Football Playoff picks can you make with confidence, and which surprising teams make a run to the title game? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams make deep runs, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $2,000 in profit since its inception, and find out.

College Football Playoff schedule, game odds

See full College Football Playoff Bracket predictions here

Tuesday, Dec. 31

7:30 p.m. ET (Fiesta Bowl): No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Penn State (-10.5, 52)

Wednesday, Jan. 1

1 p.m. ET (Peach Bowl): No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas (-13.5, 52)

5 p.m. ET (Rose Bowl): No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 54)

8:45 p.m. ET (Sugar Bowl): No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (+1.5, 44)

Thursday, Jan. 9

7:30 p.m. ET (Orange Bowl): Georgia/Notre Dame vs. Boise State/Penn State

Friday, Jan. 10

7:30 p.m. ET (Cotton Bowl): Oregon/Ohio State vs. Arizona State/Texas

Monday, Jan. 20

7:30 p.m. ET (College Football Playoff National Championship): TBD vs. TBD

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