All the talk about the College Football Playoff these days centers on the future of the tournament’s format as it seems the 12-team model is already obsolete. But while everybody’s arguing about what the 2026 CFP will look like, we still have to play the 2025 version.
Seriously! There’s an entire season yet to be played! I know, I forgot, too. Thankfully, the oddsmakers were kind enough to give us all a reminder by releasing betting odds for teams to make or miss the College Football Playoff in 2025. To thank them, I went through the odds to figure out which five bets I like the most, and since I’m such a nice guy, I thought I’d share them with all of you.
Odds below via Fanduel Sportsbook
Clemson to make CFP (-130)
It’s not the most exciting bet to make, but it’s a solid one. Clemson is the favorite in the ACC for a reason. It’s been the most successful program in the league for over a decade and still managed to win the ACC last season despite it being a “down” year in Death Valley.
In 2025, the Tigers have one of the most experienced rosters in the country, including senior quarterback Cade Klubnik and an assortment of monsters on the defensive line. History suggests that combination works quite well for Clemson.
Yes, there are games against LSU and South Carolina on the schedule, and they won’t be easy. However, since they’re not conference games, we are getting some insurance if Clemson drops one or even both because it won’t affect their standing in the ACC. Speaking of the ACC, if Clemson plays Miami this season, it won’t be until the ACC Championship Game. They get both Florida State and Duke at home, and Louisville should prove to be their toughest road game, though Georgia Tech would like a word about that.
Texas A&M to make CFP (+245)
OK, now that we’ve gotten a favorite out of the way, this is where I want to make clear I’m not predicting Texas A&M or any of the next few picks will make the CFP. What I’m saying is the Aggies can make the CFP, and they’re capable of doing so often enough that we’re getting value at these odds. So, if we look at the (+245) on the Aggies, we only need them to reach the playoff roughly 29% of the time to break even. I think the Aggies can reach the playoff more than 29% of the time.
I’m not entirely sold on Marcel Reed at QB, but a full offseason of prep to be the starter and the experience gained last year could be beneficial. What I am sold on is the group of running backs this team has, which, when paired with Reed, should give the Aggies a solid rushing attack. I’m also sold on a Mike Elko defense because Mike Elko’s defenses are always good.
The schedule has three difficult road games with Notre Dame, LSU and Texas, but what if the Aggies win one of them? That’s a huge resume boost, and the rest of the schedule is manageable (in the context of the SEC). You’d have a very tough time convincing me the Aggies can win the SEC, but I can see them doing well enough to earn an at-large bid.
BYU to make CFP (+680)
The Big 12 is not easy to predict because there isn’t a team that looks head and shoulders taller than anybody else. Instead, there’s a group of teams who you look at as being capable of winning the league. Right now, at Fanduel, there are six teams with better odds of winning the Big 12 than BYU: Kansas State, Utah, Texas Tech, Arizona State and Baylor.
Of those six, only Utah and Texas Tech are on BYU’s schedule.
In a league with so much parity, your schedule can go a long way. The Cougars nearly won the Big 12 last season, finishing 7-2 in conference and 11-2 overall. It’s not crazy to think they’ll be right back in the thick of things again, so to get these odds feels like plenty of value. There’s a lot of returning experience on offense, including Jake Retzlaff returning as starting QB. The defense could be a little iffy, but that’ll be the case with most of their opponents, too.
How confident are you about any Big Ten team outside of Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon heading into this season? Are you sure Michigan will bounce back while likely relying on a true freshman at QB? Do you want to bet on both Indiana and Illinois winning 10 games again?
My theory is there’s far more wiggle room behind that top three than many realize, so if I’m hunting for a long shot, I prefer to dip my toes into the Big Ten waters than the ACC or Big 12. And if a team is going to make a surprise run to a playoff berth, odds are they’re going to have a dynamic QB leading the way, and I’m fully on board the Demond Williams hype train at Washington.
Williams wasn’t Washington’s full-time starter last year, but he played a lot. And when he did, he showed plenty of flashes. Plus, he finished the season with only 1 interception to 10 total touchdowns.
No West Coast Big Ten team can have an easy schedule due to the travel, but at least Ohio State and Oregon have to come to Seattle. There’s also a road trip to Michigan, which won’t be easy, but the entire theory here is that Michigan is more good than great again. This is similar to the Texas A&M thought process where I wouldn’t pick the Huskies to win the Big Ten, but I won’t rule out that they could prove to be the fourth-best team in the Big Ten. That might be good enough to get in.
Tennessee to miss CFP (-290)
Making enemies of Tennessee fans is seldom a wise move, but, I’m sorry, Big Orange, this isn’t personal. It’s just business. I know you’re all still going through the part of the breakup phase where you tell yourselves you didn’t like Nico Iamaleava anyway, and you’ll be much better off without him, but it doesn’t look that way from my vantage point!
I don’t care how you spin it. Going from Iamaleava to Joey Aguilar is not an upgrade. While the offense will still be good, its chance to be elite took a serious hit. Not to mention, there’s a lot of turnover on the offensive line, and the best pass-rusher on last year’s team left, too.
Then there’s the schedule. It’s not the most difficult in the SEC, but it still includes Georgia and rivalry games on the road against Alabama and Florida. It’s very difficult to see a path where this team wins 10 games, and if the Vols only win nine, odds are they won’t have strong enough wins to convince the committee to give them an at-large with three losses.
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