This projected 2025 College Football Playoff bracket is going to make a lot more sense than the one my co-host Ari Wasserman released last week.
Not because my predictions will be any more accurate, mind you. It will make more sense because the commissioners who run the CFP decided to exercise common sense. (At least for this year; we’ll get to whatever they’re concocting for 2026 in a different column.) Last week, the commissioners decided that this year’s CFP will be seeded exactly as the selection committee ranks the teams.
Last year, the four highest ranked conference champs were guaranteed top-four seeds (and the byes that go with them). That placed ninth-ranked Boise State in the No. 3 slot and 12th-ranked Arizona State in the No. 4 slot and confused the hell out of casual fans dropping in on the sport for its chase to the finish.
That won’t happen this year. The third-ranked team will be No. 3 and the 10th-ranked team will be No. 10. So it’s easier to explain. But it probably won’t be any easier to predict.
Here goes…
First Round
No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Ohio State: Perhaps Boise State rolls through the Mountain West and into a second consecutive CFP. But the Broncos don’t have Ashton Jeanty anymore and play at Notre Dame on Oct. 4. They also face tricky non-conference matchups at USF and against Appalachian State. So let’s look to a different league. Bob Chesney replaced Curt Cignetti at JMU and led the Dukes to a 9-4 record even though some of JMU’s best 2023 players were helping Indiana go 11-1 and make the CFP. He’s now reunited with his former Holy Cross QB Matthew Sluka. (Remember him from the first month of UNLV’s 2024 season?)
The dilution of the American from Big 12 expansion has made the Sun Belt a more comparable league at the top of the Group of 5 (soon to be 6). A Sun Belt champion JMU would be under consideration, especially if the Dukes can beat Louisville in non-conference play. Unfortunately, the ride ends in Columbus. I placed Ohio State here by having the Buckeyes lose to Texas, beat Penn State in Columbus and then lose to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten title game.
No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Alabama: Surprised to see the Hurricanes here? If the hire of defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman and an infusion of transfer portal talent on that side of the ball works, Miami has an excellent chance to be here. I considered the Hurricanes, Illinois and Indiana — yes, the Hoosiers are still good — for this spot. Basically, it came down to who I thought would beat another CFP-caliber team. Miami beating Notre Dame in its season opener felt more likely than Illinois beating Ohio State or Indiana beating Oregon or Penn State. In this projection, the Hurricanes beat the Fighting Irish and then lost to Florida and then to Clemson in the ACC title game. (Given how the committee protected title game losers last year, it’s possible a team in this situation could drop another regular-season game.)
Meanwhile, I have ultra-talented Alabama going 11-1 against its regular-season schedule and losing to Texas in the SEC title game. Assuming whoever Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer picks as QB1 — we’re assuming Ty Simpson — has developed through the season as a first-year starter, Alabama’s roster would make it very dangerous in a single-elimination tournament. The Crimson Tide win and move on to the quarterfinals.
No. 10 Texas Tech at No. 7 Georgia: The Big 12 is the toughest league to predict, so I’m going with the team that spent this offseason to give itself one of the conference’s most talented rosters. Texas Tech upgraded all over the field, but if the spend made the secondary significantly better, then the Red Raiders should be quite formidable.
Meanwhile, Georgia is breaking in a new QB in Gunner Stockton, who made his first start in last season’s Sugar Bowl loss to Notre Dame. The Bulldogs upgraded at receiver in the portal, and if they have better injury luck along the offensive line this season, the offense should be more capable of scoring against elite defenses. Georgia isn’t perfect, which is why I have the Bulldogs losing to Alabama and one of Tennessee or Auburn in the regular season, but I expect Kirby Smart’s team to get better as the season progresses as former blue-chip recruits adjust to bigger roles. That’s also why the Bulldogs are a danger to make a deep run.
No. 9 Florida at No. 8 Oregon: If quarterback D.J. Lagway’s arm is indeed OK, then he elevates a team that got significantly better on both lines of scrimmage as last season progressed. The Gators’ schedule is so tough and the questions about coach Billy Napier so nagging that their their floor is still Fire Everyone, but their ceiling is in the CFP. To slot them here, I have them losing to Texas and Georgia but beating LSU, Miami and Texas A&M.
Oregon went undefeated through the regular season last year and had the misfortune — thanks to the since-eliminated seeding rules — of drawing Ohio State in its first CFP game. After losing a ton of talent to the draft, the Ducks have once again re-loaded at key spots in the portal — including at three offensive line positions. This should produce a talented roster but not necessarily a consistent one. So I’m not predicting a Big Ten title repeat, but I am predicting a first-round win for the Ducks.
Quarterfinals
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas in the Sugar Bowl: Once again, Oregon runs into the most talented team in the country in the quarterfinals. I had Texas losing at Georgia in the regular season but beating Ohio State and Florida and then beating Alabama in the SEC title game.
That produces a battle-tested team in New Orleans, the bulk of which played in a tight-in-the-fourth-quarter semifinal against eventual national champ Ohio State last year. Texas advances to the semifinals for the second consecutive year.
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Clemson in the Orange Bowl: This projection has Clemson beating LSU to start the season and dominating in the ACC before losing to South Carolina in its regular-season finale. The Tigers then beat Miami in the ACC title game to secure a bye.
Unlike last year’s Rose Bowl, Ohio State doesn’t come roaring out of the gates. The Tigers and Buckeyes play a classic, and the Buckeyes advance to the semifinals.
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 2 Penn State in the Rose Bowl: The Nittany Lions get here by winning the Big Ten for the second time in coach James Franklin’s tenure. Unfortunately, they don’t get as kind a path as they got as the Big Ten runner-up last year. They face a Georgia team that happened to get hot at the right time.
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl: The TV ratings are through the roof for this matchup of bluebloods. But unlike when the Fighting Irish played the Crimson Tide in the BCS and four-team CFP eras, the roster talent is much more even. Notre Dame got here in a somewhat similar fashion to last season. After losing to Miami in the opener, the Irish ripped off 11 consecutive wins. And because of the change in seeding rules, they were eligible for a bye. This one goes down to the wire as well, and Notre Dame moves to the semifinals for the second consecutive season.
Semifinals
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Texas in the Peach Bowl: The rematch of last year’s Cotton Bowl semifinal goes the other way this time. It’s safe to say that in crunch time, Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian does not call a toss play near the goal line.
He’s learned his lesson.
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 3 Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl: Another rematch from last season’s CFP unfolds differently. Georgia eliminates the mental and special teams mistakes that killed the Bulldogs against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal last season, and they advance to face a Texas team they beat in Athens in November.
National Championship
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas: It’s not November anymore, and there aren’t nearly as many barking fans at Hard Rock Stadium as there were between the hedges in Athens. Texas QB Arch Manning is ready for the moment and leads the Longhorns to their first national title since Vince Young and company shocked USC in the Rose Bowl after the 2005 season.
