College Football
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College football Week 10 oddly specific predictions: Let’s ride with Texas A&M, Pitt, Ohio State

I’m not one of those guys who hates kickers. I am just another Manny who is not fond of Duke’s special teams operations at the moment.

The Blue Devils should’ve beaten SMU but botched my Upset of the Week prediction because … they kept botching kicks. I’ll get over it. Duke coach Manny Diaz might not.

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My record last week (7-2) was honestly fool’s gold, much like my 55-26 overall mark picking up straight-up winners.

We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks. There are two Top 25 matchups and plenty of other intriguing games as conference races heat up.

Most passing yards

Chandler Morris of North Texas has led all FBS quarterbacks in passing yards in each of the last two weeks but is idle this Saturday. So I’m going with Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart to put up big numbers at Arkansas.

The Rebels still have a shot at making the College Football Playoff but can’t slip up against a solid Razorbacks team with an offense that is averaging 33.3 points a game. Arkansas’ defense ranks top 40 at stopping the run but has given up yards through the air. I’ve got Dart down for 400-plus passing yards and three touchdowns while the Rebels fall just shy of covering the seven-point spread in a much-needed win.

Most rushing yards

I’m going to lay off Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty for a week. Army quarterback Bryson Daily has run for more than 100 yards in six consecutive games and ranks fourth nationally with 129.9 yards per game. The Black Knights get Air Force this week, which is 1-6 and ranks 119th in rushing defense (193.7 yards per game).

After having my stat stuffer streak halted last week, I’m playing the percentages here. Daily runs for a season-high 200-plus yards and two touchdowns and Army covers the 22.5-point spread.

Most receiving yards

Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan and Utah State’s Jalen Royals are the only players to lead the nation in receiving yards more than once this season. Royals, unfortunately, is out for the season due to injury. McMillan, who plays at UCF, is my pick.

The Knights fired defensive coordinator Ted Roof this week and rank 108th in passing yards allowed per game (247.3). McMillan goes for 200-plus for the third time this season and Arizona pulls the upset as a six-point underdog in Orlando.

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Five big games

No. 4 Ohio State (-3.5) at No. 3 Penn State

James Franklin hates being reminded he’s lost seven games in a row in this series and has beaten the Buckeyes only once in 10 tries. Ohio State’s lackluster performance in a win over Nebraska last week provides hope for the Nittany Lions, who had starting quarterback Drew Allar get banged up in a win at Wisconsin.

Penn State’s uncertainty at quarterback — and success with backup Beau Pribula against the Badgers — adds another storyline to this game. I’m going to stick with the preseason script. Ohio State beats Penn State again with senior QB Will Howard and freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith hooking up twice for touchdowns in a 10-point win in Happy Valley that restores some faith in the scarlet and gray.

No. 1 Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan

I said two weeks ago the Ducks would finish the regular season undefeated, and I’m not backing down even if they’re going up against the defending national champions in the Big House. All this game is going to do is allow us to compare Oregon’s win at Michigan to Texas’ win at Michigan.

Spoiler alert: It’s going to look pretty much the same. Michigan’s passing offense will continue to struggle and the Ducks cover the spread behind three touchdown passes and 250 passing yards from Heisman hopeful Dillon Gabriel.

Texas Tech at No. 11 Iowa State (-13.5)

With BYU and Colorado off this week, this is the most intriguing Big 12 game on the slate. The Red Raiders have lost two games in a row, to Baylor and TCU, because they haven’t been able to stop anyone. The Cyclones, meanwhile, came dangerously close to being upset the last time we saw them against a good UCF offense.

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I was tempted to make this the upset of the week, but this feels like another game that Texas Tech lets get away because it can’t get a late stop. Quarterback Rocco Becht repeats his late-game heroics with another touchdown run to keep Iowa State unbeaten.

Louisville at No. 11 Clemson (-10.5)

The Cardinals have faced a pretty tough schedule (Notre Dame, Miami, SMU) and rallied from a 20-0 deficit to win at Boston College last week. The Tigers cruised through the lollipop portion of their schedule and now face three consecutive teams in the top 40 of Chris Vannini’s weekly rankings.

The good news for Clemson: Louisville’s defense isn’t nearly as good as it was last year, ranking 82nd nationally in yards per passing attempt allowed (7.4) and 58th in stopping the run (136.3 yards per game). Cade Klubnik (250-plus passing yards, two TDs) and Phil Mafah (100-plus rushing yards, two TDs) do enough for the Tigers to cover the spread in a nine-point Clemson win.

No. 10 Texas A&M (-2.5) at South Carolina

The Gamecocks’ three losses this season have come in games where they turned it over more than once and against teams with pretty good quarterbacks (Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Ole Miss’ Dart). The Aggies come in with a knack for winning the turnover battle (plus-seven) and with two quarterbacks who pose different challenges.

We’ll see Conner Weigman again, but Marcel Reed’s rushing ability (60-plus yards, two TDs) will once again be the difference for Mike Elko’s team. It will be another nip-and-tuck game, and the Aggies survive in the fourth quarter to remain unbeaten in SEC play.

Upset alert

No. 18 Pittsburgh at No. 20 SMU (-7.5)

We have questions at QB entering this game. Pitt’s Eli Holstein got banged up against Syracuse last Thursday but is expected to play this week. SMU’s Kevin Jennings has been very good but is coming off his worst performance at Duke.

No team plays more zone coverage in the ACC than Pittsburgh (83 percent), according to TruMedia, and Jennings is better against man coverage (12.1 yards per attempt, five TDs, one INT) than zone (8.6 yards per attempt, four TDs, four INTs).

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Week 9 report card

It was another good week picking winners, but I was terrible on the oddly specific front.

I’m supposed to be one of The Athletic’s resident experts on the ACC but whiffed badly on calling for Syracuse to knock Pittsburgh from the ranks of the unbeatens.

To make things worse, I said Kyle McCord would throw for 400-plus yards to lead all quarterbacks and throw three TD passes. He threw for 321 yards (12th most) and three touchdowns. But those touchdowns were thrown to people wearing Pittsburgh jerseys.

Normally, Jeanty leads the nation in rushing yards each week. He finished 13th last week with 128 yards on 33 attempts. The good news: I correctly predicted Boise State would win a tight one at UNLV.

I went 0-for-3 with my stat stuffer picks. For some reason I believed Missouri’s Luther Burden would step up and lead the nation last week in receiving yards, helping keep the Tigers within striking distance at Alabama. The Crimson Tide won 34-0 and Burden had three catches for 3 yards. Oops.

I said Notre Dame would run all over the previously unbeaten Navy and cover the 12.5-point spread. The Irish ran for 265 yards and won 51-14.

I called for three Oregon sacks and for running back Jordan James to top the 100-yard mark in a convincing win over Illinois at home. James ran for 83 yards and the Ducks had four sacks in a 38-9 victory.

I said Quinn Ewers would throw for 250-plus yards and three touchdowns, Texas would pick off Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia twice and cover the 18.5-point spread. Ewers threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns, Pavia threw two picks and the Longhorns still had to fight to escape Nashville with a 27-24 win.

I called for Texas A&M to escape with a two-point win over LSU on a late field goal. What I meant was Reed would come off the bench and rally the Aggies to a 38-23 win.

I had Penn State winning by two scores at Wisconsin with Allar accounting for two touchdowns. The Nittany Lions won 28-13. Allar threw one touchdown pass, but it was Pribula who came off the bench for the injured starter and ignited the offense.

(Photo of Marcel Reed: Maria Lysaker / Imagn Images)

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