College football Week 10 odds, picks against the spread: Ohio State-Penn State, Oregon-Michigan and more

The Big Ten runs the show in Week 10, with a top-five matchup headlining the slate and in-conference tests for the two programs grabbing the most attention.

No. 4 Ohio State descends on Happy Valley to begin Saturday’s action. Unbeaten No. 3 Penn State is a home underdog. PSU’s promising quarterback Drew Allar is questionable for the game, meaning backup Beau Pribula could be running things for the team’s biggest contest of the season so far.

In the afternoon, Michigan hopes to find a bright spot in a disappointing season with No. 1 Oregon coming to Ann Arbor. The Wolverines will throw everything into an upset bid, but the Ducks are heavy favorites and fading Michigan (2-6 against the spread) is good business this year.

It’s Hoosiers ‘til the wheels fall off in 2024, and undefeated No. 13 Indiana still hasn’t trailed in a game this season. They are road favorites against Michigan State, but the surprisingly narrow spread has the feel of a trap. Still, the Hoosiers are sixth in total offense and fifth in total defense, and MSU isn’t close to those marks in either category.

Big 12 title hopeful Iowa State gets a test at home, as the No. 11 Cyclones put their perfect record on the line against a Texas Tech team that’s 16th in scoring. In the SEC, new No. 10 Texas A&M is a narrow road favorite against a rested South Carolina squad that took both LSU and Alabama to the final bell.

ACC prize pony No. 5 Miami is laying big points against 6-2 Duke, but the Blue Devils have the country’s 13th-ranked pass defense and are second in forced turnovers. Miami’s offense outclasses Duke’s by a mile, but they turn the ball over enough to leave room for a backdoor cover.

No. 11 Clemson hosts a dangerous Louisville team as healthy favorites, but the Cardinals took Miami to the wire in a shootout and have been close in all three losses.

The big ACC showdown is the week’s capper, with No. 18 Pitt traveling as underdogs to No. 20 SMU. The Mustangs are healthy favorites after downing Duke, and their top-15 offense has scored 28 or more in every game but one, a three-point loss to No. 9 BYU.

—J.J. Bailey

All games listed are on Saturday. Kickoff times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP poll. All odds are from BetMGM. For information on streaming, click here.

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No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State

Noon ET on FOX

It’s the game of the year for Penn State fans, as No. 4 Ohio State rolls into Happy Valley as road favorites against the No. 3 Nittany Lions. Penn State is one of three undefeated Big Ten schools, but the Buckeyes have been the hurdle PSU can’t clear in recent years.

Head coach James Franklin is 1-9 against Ohio State and has lost the last seven matchups. A loss Saturday won’t kill their College Football Playoff campaign, but would put a massive dent in their conference championship aspirations.

All that is to say, it’s a terrible time to have a problem at quarterback, which the Nittany Lions do.

Junior Drew Allar injured his knee in the first half against Wisconsin, and is questionable for Saturday. Even if he plays, he’ll be hampered, and OSU’s top-10 pass defense is allowing just 163 yards a game. If Allar can’t go, it will be backup Beau Pribula’s show. The junior steered PSU to a win last week, but the direct snaps and tight-end trickery needed to spark the offense against Wisconsin likely won’t play against the Buckeyes, who are No. 2 in total defense.

But Penn State catches OSU at a vulnerable time. The Buckeyes nearly sleepwalked into an upset against Nebraska, managing just 64 rushing yards.

PSU has the fourth-ranked defense and will be salivating after seeing OSU’s offensive line struggle mightily against Nebraska. If ever there was a time for Penn State to catch Ohio State, it feels like now.

—J.J. Bailey

Picks against the spread

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Duke at No. 5 Miami

Noon ET on ABC

Duke was so close to making this a massive game in the ACC race. The Blue Devils had a potential game-winning field goal blocked at the end of regulation last week against SMU and then lost in overtime when they went for two and the win. Now, Duke heads to undefeated Miami as a three-score underdog.

Duke is still 6-2, and this appears to be a successful season for first-year coach Manny Diaz. However, at 2-2 in the ACC, the Blue Devils have a lot of work to do to get back in the conference race, even if they pull off a shocker in South Florida on Saturday.

For Miami, the path to the College Football Playoff seems clear and, in all honesty, mostly easy. The Hurricanes won’t face another top-25 team before potentially playing in the ACC title game and even have enough room for error to have one slip-up before then. Plus, Miami fans were able to breathe a bit easier last week in a 36-14 win against Florida State. That blowout ended a run of three straight one-score wins for Miami.

Miami has shown vulnerability, with Virginia Tech, Cal and Louisville taking the Hurricanes down to the wire. Plus, Duke has actually won three of the past five meetings in this series, including the most recent matchup two years ago at Miami. If Duke is able to make this one interesting, it will likely be because of Miami’s defense, which is allowing nearly 33 points per game in ACC play.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

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No. 1 Oregon at Michigan

3:30 p.m. ET on CBS

Michigan has the rare opportunity to play spoiler on Saturday when it hosts Oregon for the first time as a Big Ten member. The top-ranked Ducks are heavy road favorites against a Wolverines team that’s hoping for a late-season surge.

Michigan may be the defending national and Big Ten champs, but as the calendar turns to November, the Wolverines (5-3, 3-2) aren’t even bowl-eligible. On the other side, Oregon (8-0, 5-0) has seamlessly handled the transition from the Pac-12 and is currently atop the polls with a clear path to both the Big Ten Championship Game and College Football Playoff.

The biggest contrast between these two teams is on offense, particularly at quarterback. The Ducks have Dillon Gabriel, who is fifth in the country in passer rating (174.8) and second in FBS history with 143 career touchdown passes. He’s making a strong case to be named a Heisman Trophy finalist and is a big reason why the Ducks are averaging 34 points per game in Big Ten play.

The Wolverines have started three different quarterbacks, who have combined to throw more interceptions (nine) than touchdowns (seven). Additionally, Jack Tuttle announced earlier this week that he is retiring due to repeated concussions, leaving Davis Warren and Alex Orji as the remaining options under center. On the season, Michigan has totaled 172 points compared to the 170 Oregon has scored in Big Ten games alone.

Unlike last season, the Wolverines can’t lean on their defense either. They are just 12th in the conference in scoring defense (21.5 points per game), with the Ducks allowing just 15.6 points per game.

Again, the biggest difference is through the air. Oregon has allowed just two touchdown passes to Big Ten foes vs. Michigan’s eight. The Wolverines also could be missing injured star cornerback Will Johnson.

It’s no easy task to win in the Big House, but the mere fact that this would qualify as a home upset for Michigan says plenty about where each team currently stands.

—Mark Ross

Picks against the spread

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No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina

7:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Texas A&M is in unfamiliar territory: first place in the SEC. The Aggies are 5-0 in SEC play, the lone remaining undefeated team in the conference standings, but staying that way won’t be easy. A&M is favored by less than a field goal at South Carolina.

The Gamecocks (4-3, 2-3 in the SEC) aren’t contending for anything other than a bowl berth but have been a tough out for most of the season. South Carolina took LSU and Alabama to the last possession and held Kentucky and Oklahoma to single digits in blowout victories. A 27-3 loss to Ole Miss is the outlier for the Gamecocks this season.

South Carolina is tied for third in the country with 28 sacks. A game-wrecking defensive line can make life for any quarterback unpleasant.

Which quarterback the Gamecocks will be chasing isn’t clear. Marcel Reed stepped in and saved the Aggies from a double-digit deficit against LSU last week, but that doesn’t mean Conner Weigman is out going forward. Reed did change that game with three rushing touchdowns, but he only passed the ball twice. Having a running quarterback could be a better matchup against South Carolina’s pass rush, and coach Mike Elko has already shown he will make the switch if he doesn’t like what he sees. We could see both quarterbacks in this one, too.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

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Louisville at No. 11 Clemson

7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Any thoughts of Clemson’s demise after the Tigers got demolished by Georgia in the season opener appear to have been a bit premature. The Tigers have rattled off six straight wins, none even close, and now host Louisville as double-digit favorites.

Clemson’s six-game winning streak isn’t impressive in terms of the opposition faced. The Tigers dropped 66 on an Appalachian State team that is now 3-4 and have five ACC wins against teams with a combined record of 7-18 in conference play. The streak is impressive in terms of how dominant Clemson has been. The Tigers have won these games by an average of 27.3 points per game.

A blowout win would be a surprise against Louisville, which is likely the best team Clemson has faced since Georgia. All three of Louisville’s losses were by seven points to top-25 teams (Notre Dame, SMU, Miami). In all three of those games, Louisville gave up more than 30 points. Clemson has gone for 40 or more points in five of its last six games. The Cardinals already had a shootout loss at home to Miami, 52-45, and this one could be similar.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

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Wisconsin at Iowa

7:30 p.m. ET on NBC

In a season where a number of big programs are displaying Iowa-like offenses (Michigan, Florida State, Oklahoma, etc.), the Hawkeyes are quietly competent on offense this season. Iowa has reached 40 three times this season, twice in Big Ten play, and is averaging nearly 30 points per game. However, this weekend’s game against Wisconsin still has a total barely above 40. The Hawkeyes are small favorites in the battle for the Heartland Trophy.

One reason for the low betting total is that both teams are on their No. 2 quarterbacks. Iowa’s Cade McNamara is out after suffering a concussion in last week’s win against Northwestern. Brendan Sullivan, who transferred from Northwestern, is set to start against the Badgers. Sullivan was 9-of-14 for 79 yards with 41 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown after McNamara left.

Wisconsin is trotting out Braedyn Locke at quarterback after Tyler Van Dyke went down with an injury three weeks into the season. Locke has seven touchdowns and six interceptions this season while completing 57.6 percent of his passes.

Both these defense are allowing fewer than 20 points per game, so if this ends up as a low-scoring slog, no one will be surprised.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

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No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU

8 p.m. ET on ACC Network

Pitt is 7-0 for the first time since 1982 and is going on the road this week for a massive ACC game at SMU. SMU is favored by about a touchdown.

Pitt’s rapid one-year turnaround has been led by a completely revamped offense that enters the week averaging 40.8 points per game, the sixth-highest number in the entire country.

The transfer portal has played a big role in that improvement, with starting quarterback Eli Holstein and running back Desmond Reid helping to transform the offense. Holstein, a redshirt freshman transfer from Alabama, has been the biggest factor and enters the week with 1,805 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He has also made an impact on the ground with 286 yards rushing and three touchdowns.

The concern for Pitt, however, is whether or not he will be able to play. He was injured late in Pitt’s blowout win over Syracuse, and his availability is not yet known. If he cannot go, Nate Yarnell would get the start, which would be a significant drop-off for the Pitt offense.

SMU’s offense is equally dynamic, coming into Saturday’s game averaging 39.1 points per game while having played a slightly tougher schedule than Pitt has so far.

SMU boasts a dominant running game that is averaging over 200 yards per game. Brashard Smith is leading the way with 745 yards and 6.4 yards per carry, while quarterback Kevin Jennings has also rushed for 321 yards.

Pitt’s defense is coming off a dominant game against Syracuse’s Kyle McCord where they intercepted him five times, returning three of them for touchdowns.

—Adam Gretz

Picks against the spread

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Wild card picks

Picking only the biggest games is not the smartest way to bet, so each picker is adding another bet with everything from every game on the table. We are tracking the records in these picks as well as counting them in the overall picks standings.

Austin Mock: Northwestern/Purdue under 46.5

Chris Vannini: Nebraska -6.5 vs. UCLA

Dan Santaromita: Illinois +3 vs. Minnesota

David Ubben: Ohio State/Penn State under 45.5

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Picks records

(Photo of Kaytron Allen: John Fisher / Getty Images)

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