It’s been five long weeks since I last was able to sit down and put together one of these for you, but I’m thrilled to be able to simply tell you all… Welcome back.
As Perry mentioned in the first article after my absence, I work in a community impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton near Tampa and have spent the last few weeks working quite a hectic schedule that — while paired with caring for a now six-month old — didn’t allow for much time to tape the podcast let alone write this article.
To the many folks all over Florida impacted by either of the storms that happen to read this article, my heart goes out to you. You will get through this one day at a time.
Football, of course, is the ultimate escape for what’s happening (as long as you aren’t trying to find that escape in anything that resembles success from Florida State this year).
The last time I got to be here with you guys, I had a pretty decent 6-4 week that brought my season total to 23-17.
Top marks for the week there was an article went to trojan24man, who went 8-0 with one push (-7 in Louisville-Notre Dame) to push his winning streak to three in a row. If there’s a week I’m missing over the last five, let me know and I’m happy to add you to the list.
Comment Section Hall of Fame
- Week One: Yapo.SD and Jason Kuruvilla (7-3)
- Week Two: Ukedadnole (8-2)
- Week Three: Trojan24man (8-2)
- Week Four: Trojan24man, mikal48 (6-4)
- Week Five: Trojan24man (8-0)
Could you be the next Comment Section Champion of the season? Leave your picks to the 10 games below in the comment section at the bottom of the page. You have to pick the 10 games I provided to be eligible for the Hall as those are the only ones I grab. Most correct is our winner.
If you want to get in-depth on picks, listen to the Sharpen the Point podcast, where we talk about those game as well as Daily Fantasy Sports contests. We can help you through the thought process of building a team.
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-3.5) at No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions, Noon ET, FOX
I’m surprised to see Ohio State favored so heavily here. I expected this game closer to a pick em. Both teams feel like title contenders that are a heartbeat away from looking like a giant fraud. I feel like this really is a coin toss and in those cases, I’m happy to take the home team plus the points.
Brian’s Pick: Penn State +3.5
Duke Blue Devils (+20.5) at No. 5 Miami Hurricanes, Noon ET, ABC
This is a really large number here, but I guess Duke is Duke at the end of the day. Manny Diaz is going to really want to win this game. Ultimately, I don’t think how much a coach wants it matters in the end result if the talent is so polarizing, but it’s enough to get me to take 3 TDs of points.
Brian’s Pick: Duke +20.5
No. 1 Oregon Ducks (-15.5) at Michigan Wolverines, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Glad that while I was gone we collectively agreed that Michigan isn’t good. I was right in picking them against USC though for the same logic as before. The Ducks are the team to beat for the national title. It feels like the Ducks and Dawgs are on a collision course for it. As much as I like that big number for a home dog that can play elite defense, Oregon is too good on both sides of the ball.
Brian’s Pick: Oregon -15.5
Florida Gators (+16.5) vs. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Don’t look now, but the Florida Gators aren’t terrible? A team that everyone left for dead after their first three games is trending toward a bowl game — if they can navigate the tough schedule remaining plus the FSU contest. Say what you want about bowl eligibility, but that felt like a fantasy after how this thing got rolling. The Gators have upset potential with their star freshman QB DJ Lagway giving them a nearly limitless ceiling. But that also comes with limitless floor as well. Bulldogs are simply too much for him in this one.
Brian’s Pick: Georgia -16.5
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+14.5) at No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Is this the year Matt Campbell makes his big charge to the CFP and then finally leaves Iowa State? We had a run a few years ago where his name was the first mentioned in every coaching cycle as the hottest one on the board and he’s held pat. A few down years but he and his Cyclones are back in the spot and look to be the co-favorites in the Big 12 with BYU. They’re at home but I’m not buying their cinderella story. Losses are coming so why not take some points here with the Red Raiders.
Brian’s Pick: Texas Tech +14.5
No. 13 Indiana Hoosiers (-7.5) at Michigan State Spartans, 3:30 p.m. ET, Peacock
If you’re looking for something to watch on Peacock, you can go for WWE Crown Jewel Premium Live Event at 1 p.m. as an appetizer and then flip over to this game for the upset potential of another surprise unbeaten. Indiana said earlier this week that they feel pretty optimistic about getting QB Kurtis Rourke back for this game, but how ready is he to be back at full strength. IU looked great again last week with the College Gameday atmosphere. Can they carry on the road? I’m thinking enough to blow out a Michigan State team.
Brian’s Pick: Michigan State +7.5
North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5) at Florida State Seminoles, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN
Here’s this game if you’re still into that.
Brian’s Pick: Florida State +2.5
No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Don’t look now, but Texas A&M has a clear shot to the playoff. If they get through this game, it’s really just Texas standing in the way of them and the SEC Championship Game and College Football Playoff. I expected to see A&M as a larger favorite here, but I also like the Gamecocks. They are just wild enough to do something crazy here. A&M looked dreadful last week and survived the first half through LSU’s own mistakes. They dominated the second half with a QB change that South Carolina will be smart enough to prepare a gameplan for it. Plus homefield advantage.
Brian’s Pick: South Carolina +2.5
Louisville Cardinals (+10.5) at No. 11 Clemson Tigers, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Clemson certainly feels like a team in the Michigan class for me, just with fewer teams to expose them. They get three consecutive matchups to test them. I’m not sure any are really capable of beating them and the next two feel like better chances for actual losses, but I think Louisville likely starts to expose some of the cracks this weekend.
Brian’s Pick: Louisville +10.5
No. 18 Pitt Panthers (+7.5) at SMU Mustangs, 8:00 p.m. ET, ACCN
I have been a huge Pitt supporter since pre-hurricanes. I haven’t seen a minute of them playing since the storms happened. I will not walk away from them now.
Brian’s Pick: Pitt +7.5
DK Saturday Main Slate DFS Picks
Record Year to Date: 18 Wins 20 Ties 16 Losses
*Record is determined by a player’s value based on points per dollar. A win is more than 4 times, a tie is 3-4 times, and a loss given below 3 times. Example: Oronde Gadsden costs $3500 and scores 26.8 points for a 7.66 value rating and a win.*
Quarterback
Rocco Becht, Iowa State ($6,500) – Becht is quite possibly the most underrated quarterback in the country leading the Cyclones to a top ten ranking in the country. Make no mistake about it that they still want to rely on the run game, over 56%, Becht and his two primary options in the passing game, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, provide explosive capability through the air. Meanwhile, Becht is an underrated rusher which he put on full display in their last game, nearly doubling his carry total for the season with a 20/97/2 line. Do not expect that output this week but it is good to know it is there. This week they get a Texas Tech unit that we picked on with Josh Hoover last week for two thousand more making Becht one of the slate’s better points per dollar plays this week. The Red Raider defense allows nearly thirty four points per game with two hundred and eighty yards coming through the air on a weekly basis. Texas Tech should do just enough to keep this competitive to where Iowa State keeps throwing it around the yard meaning that all three of Becht, Higgins, and Noel can be played in any combination of ways.
Bryson Daily, Army ($9,200) – No player in college football ever has a higher ceiling than a service academy quarterback. Keenan Reynolds used to be able to win you a slate almost by himself when he was on his Heisman finalist run. Now it is Daily who has been putting on a show this year putting up nearly forty fantasy points per game, heck he is coming off a game where he put up a sixty burger. Daily has rushed for over one hundred yards in all but one game this year with multiple scores on the ground in all but one game, and while the volume isn’t there through the air, nor is it necessary, he is capable of beating teams there as well. The matchup with Air Force is about as good as it gets since the Falcons hemorrhage yards on the ground, allowing over two hundred per game and north of five per carry. Army runs the ball north of eighty seven percent of the time so while Daily will feast, you can mix in Kanye Udoh either in conjunction or with Daily to feast upon this porous run defense.
Running Back
Trevor Etienne, Georgia ($6,500) – The younger Etienne has come on strong of late both on the ground and through the air getting nineteen touches, nearly one hundred yards, and over a touchdown per game in his last five. He took over that Texas game and has a firm grasp on this depleted backfield that has lost some of its depth due to injury. Georgia should be able to handle Florida with relative ease so they should keep it on the ground and pull away gradually against a Gator defense that ranks outside the top one hundred in the nation against the run. A boost in rush attempts will not be a surprise as teams run it against Florida nearly sixty percent of the time which is nearly sixteen percent more than the Dogs typically do. Either way, Etienne is game script proof and an elite play.
Mario Anderson, Memphis ($7,800) – There was heavy debate for me in this spot between Anderson and DJ Giddens. Ultimately, I decided to go with Anderson since he plays in the best game environment on the slate with a total north of sixty and one of the best roles within an offense in all of college football. Anderson, a South Carolina transfer, gets around twenty carries per game with around five catches per game and he has been highly productive with them accounting for fourteen total touchdowns. On paper, the matchup does not look great as UTSA gives up less than one hundred rushing yards per game which is backed up by their under three yards per carry allowed. Looking into that further, they have faced a lot of opponents which are not good at running the ball and have given it up to competent teams. Is there risk that Memphis chucks it all over the yard? Sure. The beauty of this is we can and will play some Seth Henigan, Roc Taylor, and Demeer Blankumsee stacks to hedge.
Wide Receiver
Tez Johnson, Oregon ($7,700) – Last week I made the mistake of playing too much Emeka Egbuka and not enough Tez Johnson when pivoting off of my DT Sheffield pick. We think of Michigan as a defensive juggernaut given their success under the Harbaugh regime, but while the defensive line has limited the rushing capability of teams, the secondary has been vulnerable. Top corner Will Johnson remains banged up and unlikely to play further depleting the defense. When you combine the fact that Tez has caught seven or more passes in six of eight games, the uptick in overall offensive production as the Ducks have gelled, and a Michigan secondary that is the way to attack them, Tez has a high floor and ceiling combination.
Chris Carpenter, UTSA ($3,700) – WR1 McCuin did not play last game. Carp has 6 or more catches and atleast 9 targets in 4 straight. Project to trail in high scoring game. Team avg nearly 300 yards pass per game. QB Owen McCown in play as well.
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