College football Week 13 oddly specific predictions: Hoosier Hysteria ends, Ohio State rolls

Can anybody stop Kansas?

Lance Leipold’s team has been an upset machine the past two weeks. The Jayhawks are so hot, they ended my streak of upset alert failures and helped me to a season-best 8-1 picking straight-up winners. I’m 71-37 for the season (not against the spread, because that would be absurd).

We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks, starting with the stat stuffers.

Most passing yards

Miami’s Cam Ward has slipped from favorite status to sitting third in the Heisman race behind Colorado’s Travis Hunter and Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, according to BetMGM — and The Athletic’s straw poll. Could Ward play his way back into the lead by guiding Miami to the ACC Championship Game with wins over Wake Forest and Syracuse? That’s probably not sexy enough for voters. But he’ll try.

Dave Clawson’s Demon Deacons rank 130th in passing yards allowed per game, and it’s probably a safe bet Miami’s leaky defense won’t be able to halt Wake’s slow mesh offense enough to cover the 24.5-point spread. Expect lots of points and stats. Ward throws for 400-plus yards and four TDs, and Miami reaches 10 wins for only the second time since joining the ACC.

Most rushing yards

Jacksonville State’s Tre Stewart ranks seventh nationally with 1,219 rushing yards for the team sitting atop the Conference USA standings.

The Gamecocks — in their second season at the FBS level — can clinch a spot in the CUSA Championship Game with a win at home over Sam Houston. They’re 6-point favorites over the 8-2 Bearkats, who are also in their second season at the FBS level and also have an opportunity to reach the league title game. Put Stewart down for 170-plus yards and the game-winning TD late against the league’s top-scoring defense.

Most receiving yards

Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr. leads all tight ends nationally in catches (83), receiving yards (1,170) and receiving touchdowns (eight). He needs 183 yards to break the FBS single-season tight end record held by Texas Tech’s Jace Amaro.

Harold Fannin Jr. 👐

• Only player that is a semifinalist for the Mackey and the Biletnikoff Awards.
• Leads the nation’s TEs in 20+ offensive categories.
• In the top 5 of all receivers in another 12+ offensive categories, including per @PFF_College: No. 1 in YAC (646),… pic.twitter.com/LwyfmUXgzw

— BGSU Football (@BG_Football) November 19, 2024

The Falcons are 11.5-point favorites at Ball State this week and have a shot to reach their first league championship game since 2015. The Cardinals fired their coach this week, are 3-7 overall and rank 132nd in passing yards allowed per game. Slam dunk! Fannin sets the record with 190-plus yards and two touchdowns, and the Falcons cover the spread.

Five big games

No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (-13.5)

The Hoosiers haven’t beaten Ohio State since 1988 and are on a 29-game losing streak in the series. This matchup, though, feels different because Curt Cignetti has a defense that ranks No. 1 nationally against the run and No. 7 in points allowed.

The problem for the Hoosiers? This is the best offense they’ll have faced by a wide margin. The previous best, at least statistically, is Maryland, which ranks 85th at 26.4 points per game.

The Buckeyes cover the spread at home behind another balanced attack and two Jeremiah Smith touchdown catches.

“This is where I wanted to be.”

Indiana football head coach Curt Cignetti signed an 8-year contract extension with the Hoosiers this past week.

Here’s what the first-year HC had to say on his decision to stay in Bloomington. 🗣️🔥 #iufb pic.twitter.com/QXYjeO67pt

— The Hoosier Network (@TheHoosierNet) November 18, 2024

No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State (-3)

I’m not the only media member who gets it wrong. Arizona State was picked last in the Big 12 preseason poll, and BYU was picked 13th out of 16 teams. BYU is 8-20 all-time in the series but won the last meeting, 27-17 in Provo in 2021.

Cam Skattebo didn’t run all over Kansas State last week (2.9 yards per carry) in his return from injury but faces a weaker run defense in BYU (eighth in the Big 12). His 130-plus rushing yards and two TDs will be why the Sun Devils head into the final week of the season with a chance to reach the Big 12 title game.

No. 4 Penn State (-12.5) at Minnesota

I’ve been torn over Penn State. Before the season, I had a bad feeling the Nittany Lions — always on the cusp of contending — would miss out on the first 12-team Playoff. But I changed my mind at midseason and predicted a No. 7 seed for James Franklin and company.

I’m sticking with the Playoff pick. Quarterback Drew Allar has been sensational. So, too, has tight end Tyler Warren. They’ll find a way (three combined TDs) to survive a trip to what had been a streaking Gophers team before a loss last week to Rutgers.

No. 16 Colorado (-2.5) at Kansas

Kansas is coming off consecutive wins over ranked opponents for the first time in program history and gets a chance to spoil the path to the Big 12 title game for Hunter, Shedeur Sanders and Coach Prime. It’s been 14 years since these programs have played.

This smells like a classic in Kansas City that goes down to the wire. Kansas cornerbacks Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson each pick off Sanders once, but Hunter gets the last laugh on a late touchdown catch to lift the Buffaloes to a one-score win — and locks up the Heisman.

No. 18 Army at No. 6 Notre Dame (-14)

The Irish have won eight consecutive games since their loss to Northern Illinois by an average margin of 32.3 points. Army has not beaten a top-10 team since 1963.

Army’s defense is very good, but this is by far the toughest team the Black Knights will face on their way to the AAC Championship Game. I said in my midseason review that the Irish would lose to Army or Navy. But the Notre Dame offense has been humming of late, averaging nearly 446 yards and 44 points per game since the start of October. Army will keep it respectable, but the Irish hold the Black Knights to under 250 yards rushing and win by two scores.

Upset alert

No. 9 Ole Miss (-10) at Florida

Are Billy Napier’s Gators about to pull off their second win over a ranked opponent in a row? Florida has won three consecutive games at home by double digits — against LSU, Kentucky and UCF — and is 17-6 over its last 23 games at The Swamp. Ole Miss, meanwhile, is 6-4-1 all-time in Gainesville.

Jaxson Dart is the X-factor here. He’s been elite in eight wins (73.8 completion percentage, 358 yards per game, 20 TDs, three INTs) and ordinary in two losses (60.9 completion percentage, 272.5 yards per game, two TDs, one INT). Saturday, Dart is ordinary (270 yards, one TD) and the Gators get a late TD run from DJ Lagway to stun the Rebels coming off a bye week.

Week 14 report card

I had only one bad miss last week, picking LSU to win by two touchdowns at Florida and for Garrett Nussmeier to lead all FBS passers with 350-plus yards and three touchdowns. LSU lost 27-16, and Nussmeier finished 30th nationally with 260 yards and a touchdown.

The rest of the winners hit, but the oddly specific portion of the column was very mid.

I said Makhi Hughes would go for 170-plus rushing yards with two scores and Tulane would win by 6 at Army — as a 7-point favorite. The Green Wave cruised to a 35-0 win, and Hughes finished 58th among all rushers with 82 yards and two touchdowns on 22 attempts.

I predicted San Jose State’s Nick Nash would put up some big numbers (10-plus catches, 180-plus yards, two TDs) in another tight Boise State one-score win. Nash finished 17th among all FBS receivers with nine catches for 126 yards and a touchdown, and Boise State beat the Spartans 42-21.

I said Clemson would sack Pitt’s QB four times and Phil Mafah would run for 120 yards and two scores in an 8-point Tigers road win. Mafah ran for only 17 yards, but Clemson sacked Nate Yarnell eight times and won 24-20.

I said Utah’s seven-game win streak against Colorado would come to an end, but only because Sanders (250-plus passing yards, two TDs) and Hunter (100-plus receiving yards, one TD) would make plays late in a 6-point CU win (short of the 11.5-point spread). Sanders threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns, Hunter had five catches for 55 yards, and Colorado cruised to a 49-24 win.

I said Notre Dame would win its eighth consecutive game on a pair of second-half Riley Leonard touchdown runs but fail to cover the 22.5-point spread. The Irish jumped out to a 35-0 lead behind three Leonard touchdown passes and beat Virginia 35-14.

I said Dillon Gabriel would throw three touchdown passes and Oregon would win by at least three touchdowns for the fifth straight game. Gabriel didn’t throw a touchdown pass, and the Ducks had to pull off a fourth-quarter comeback to win at Wisconsin 16-13.

I said Georgia’s defense would find a way to hold Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson to a season-low 70 yards in a Bulldogs victory. Sampson ran for 101 yards and a touchdown, and Georgia won 31-17.

I said Devin Neal, Kansas’ all-time leading rusher, would rush for 100-plus yards and find a way to lift KU to the upset over BYU. Neal ran for 52 yards and two touchdowns, and the Jayhawks knocked off the Cougars 17-13.

(Photo of TreVeyon Henderson: Gregory Fisher / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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