Colorado and BYU square off in the 2024 Alamo Bowl in a battle of Big 12 rivals. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.
Colorado may have college football’s worst performing rushing offense, but its vertical game led by quarterback Shedeur Sanders is one of the nation’s most potent, and has led to this team winning nine games and playing nearly into Big 12 title contention this season.
This will be the last time we see Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter on the field in Colorado uniforms as both look to embark on the NFL Draft this spring.
BYU was perfect through nine games, but two close losses by a combined nine points doomed its Big 12 and College Football Playoff ambitions.
Colorado and BYU have played each other just twice since the 1947 season and 12 times total, with the Buffaloes holding an 8-3-1 all-time series lead over the Cougars.
What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Buffs and Cougars meet in the postseason?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Colorado and BYU compare in college football’s Alamo Bowl game.
Notably, the models aren’t siding with the Buffaloes in this game, giving the slight edge to the Cougars instead in a projected upset special.
SP+ predicts that BYU will defeat Colorado by a projected score of 29 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 3.2 points.
The model gives the Cougars a narrow 58 percent chance of outright victory over the Buffaloes.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.
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Colorado is a 2.5 point favorite against BYU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.
FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).
And it set the moneyline odds for Colorado at -152 and for BYU at +126 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
Most bettors are taking the other view, expecting the Buffaloes will handle the Cougars, when looking at the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Colorado is getting 60 percent of bets to pull through as the favorite, win the game by at least a field goal and cover this narrow point spread.
The other 40 percent of wagers project BYU will either beat the Buffs in an upset, or keep the final margin to under three points in a loss.
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Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
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When: Sat., Dec. 28
Where: San Antonio, Tex.
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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