Could This One 2025 Stat Hurt Jace LaViolette’s MLB Draft Status?

Baseball America researched the batting averages in the draft year of every Division I hitter selected in the first round since BA was founded in 1981. Of those 316 D-I first-round hitters, only 16 hit under .300 in their draft year. That includes two hitters from the covid-cancelled 2020 season, which means only 14 hitters did so in a full season.

Of those 16, only three had a lower batting average than LaViolette. And of the 14 who hit under .300, only two (Ken Felder, 1992 and Bill Spiers, 1987) were selected in the top 15 picks. In comparison, over that same time frame, there have been 17 first-round picks who hit over .440 in their draft season.

The average slash line of college hitters taken in first round since 2005 (the first year for which we could gather on-base and slugging percentages for all hitters) is .358/.467/.645. For top 15 picks, it’s .364/.475/.668. The average batting average for first-round D-I college hitters picked since 1981 is .366.

In those terms, LaViolette’s batting average ranks in the sixth percentile of first-round college hitters in the study. His on-base percentage ranks in the 20th percentile, and his slugging ranks in the 25th percentile.

LaViolette is currently a center fielder, but he’s expected by many scouts to eventually end up in a corner outfield spot, where his bat will have to carry him. The vast majority of hitters picked with well-below-average batting averages are glove-first catchers and extremely athletic middle infielders and center fielders. Of the 16, four were catchers, two were outfielders who also played football and six were shortstops.

We can also get a profile of the average first-round college hitter by position. For this, the full slash line is for draftees from 2004 to present, while the batting average is for players from 1981 to present.

Batting Average Is Actually Useful

Batting average is a very basic metric, so it’s worth asking just how valuable it is as a stat for college hitters. Past history shows that a low batting average in a player’s draft year appears to be a significant risk factor for future big league success.

Of the 16 sub-.300 hitters drafted in the first round, two are too early in his career to be evaluated (Malcom Moore and Enrique Bradfield).

Of the other 14, five failed to reach the majors. Two (Jeromy Burnitz and Bill Spiers) had 10+ bWAR careers. Patrick Bailey is the Giants’ current starting catcher, and Steve Lyons had a long career as a utility man. The other five have had sub-0.0 bWAR careers.

Across all 276 college hitters drafted in the first round between 1981 and 2021, only 40 (14.5%) failed to reach the majors. Among the sub-.300 hitters, it’s a 35.7% miss rate (5 of 14). Among hitters who hit .400, there is a 10.7% miss rate (7 of 65).

Among the 236 who reached the majors, 55 (23.3%) produced below-zero bWAR. Among the .400+ hitters, only 9.2% (6 of 58) produced negative bWAR. Among the sub-.300 hitters, 55.6% (5 of 9) produced negative bWAR.

So, overall, 34.4% (95 of 276) of college hitters drafted in the first round from 1981 to 2021 either failed to reach the majors or produced negative WAR in the majors. Among .400+ hitters, that rate drops to 20% (13 of 65).

Among sub-.300 hitters, where LaViolette finished up, that rate climbs to 71.4% (10 of 14).

Even if we try to draw it more broadly, similar trends emerge. The 158 hitters who hit at or above the median batting average of .358 produced on average 13.4 bWAR. The 116 hitters who hit below the median batting average produced on average 8.3 bWAR.

Here’s a the full list of first round college hitters who hit under .300 in their draft year (1981-2024):

Sub-.300 Hitting First Round Picks

* Season shortened by coronavirus pandemic