Court Vision: Duke and Auburn pursue history, Indiana fans play the ‘what-if game’

We’re one month and one day away from the end of the regular season.

Buckle up.

And now that that road mark is on the horizon, let’s dream a little.

1. Duke’s and Auburn’s pursuit of history

“Ugh, I’m so tired of hearing about Auburn and Duke.”

Well, too bad. They’re the clear-cut best teams in college basketball, having gone a combined 28-0 since their early December meeting in Durham. They’re this season’s UConn and Purdue, easily a tier above everyone else in the sport. (May we be so lucky as to get a rematch in San Antonio.) Now, about both being on the verge of history.

Start with the two teams’ respective efficiency rankings. Auburn’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 130.5 — meaning the Tigers average 130.5 points per 100 offensive possessions — isn’t just the best in the nation by a country mile; it’s the best ever in KenPom’s database, which dates back to the 1996-97 season. That’s made only more impressive by the fact that National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome — it’s a two-horse race between him and Duke freshman Cooper Flagg — missed two games with a sprained ankle. The Tigers are seventh in the nation in points per game (85.1), have three players shooting over 40 percent from 3 and have averaged more than one point per possession (PPP) in every game but one (versus Tennessee). We’re talking about quite possibly the most unstoppable offense in college hoops history.

Duke, meanwhile, is “only” third nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, but the Blue Devils are playing their stingiest defense since Jon Scheyer’s senior season in 2010 — which ended with Duke cutting down the nets. Moreover, the Devils lead the nation in scoring margin at 20 points per game, having won seven of their 12 ACC games to date — including Wednesday’s 83-54 blowout over Syracuse — by 20-plus points. That was also the ninth time this season Duke has held its opponent to a season-low in scoring. Per KenPom, only six of Duke’s opponents this season have averaged better than one PPP when facing the Blue Devils, five of whom have top-60 offenses. (The sixth, barely, was Virginia Tech on New Year’s Eve — which was also Duke’s first game after a 10-day holiday break.)

But the real history both programs are pursuing is going undefeated in conference play, something no high-major team has done since Kentucky in 2014-15. In fact, only nine high-major teams in the modern era — since 1985, when the NCAA Tournament expanded — have ever done so. We’ll see if Duke and Auburn join the below list, but as you can see, every such squad to this point has advanced to at least the Elite Eight, with a third of them eventually playing for the national championship:

Obviously the road for Auburn — which plays in the deepest and best conference of the KenPom era — is more difficult than it is for Duke, which is trouncing possibly the worst ACC of all time. (Don’t believe me? There are four sub-100 KenPom teams from the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten and Big East combined compared to seven from the ACC alone. The prosecution rests, your honor.) Auburn still has six games left against Top 25 foes, three of which are on the road. Duke, meanwhile, has none in conference play, and per KenPom, has a staggering 48.3 percent chance of going undefeated until the postseason. (That includes a rare late-February nonconference game versus slumping Illinois in Madison Square Garden.) Both teams are favored in all their remaining games, but one of those journeys is not like the other.

If nothing else, Duke seems guaranteed to set the ACC single-season conference wins record, which is 17 (set by Virginia in 2017-18 and UNC last season). But if the Blue Devils get past Clemson on the road Saturday — where they have their lowest win probability the rest of this season, at “only” 73 percent — then a 20-0 ACC finish is absolutely on the table.

As for Auburn, the Tigers host No. 6 Florida on Saturday in what should be the best game this weekend. It seems improbable that Bruce Pearl’s team can take down the Gators, then rival Alabama twice, then Kentucky in Lexington en route to the SEC’s latest 18-0 mark. But I’m not doubting the best college offense I’ve ever seen.

2. Dusty May’s return to Indiana, and a “what if” that could last a decade

Entering this weekend, Michigan is a half-game behind Purdue for first place in the Big Ten. And while the Wolverines have battled inconsistency this season, it’s impossible to say that May’s first campaign in Ann Arbor has been anything but a resounding success. The “Twin Towers” pick-and-roll combo he devised with 7-footers Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf remains among the most daunting actions to stop in all of college hoops, and Michigan is clearly NCAA Tournament-bound for the first time in three seasons.

*Camera pans to angry/apathetic Indiana fans*

Drink it in, Hoosiers fans. Because May’s success this season is only the start of what could be a decade’s worth of what-ifs.

In an alternate universe, May — an Indiana native who was famously a student manager for the Hoosiers under Bob Knight — is coaching on the other sideline this weekend when Michigan travels to Assembly Hall. But instead of entering the May sweepstakes last summer alongside Michigan and Louisville, Indiana opted to retain Mike Woodson on the heels of IU missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in his three seasons. Year 4 in Bloomington has been, well, basically a disaster. The Hoosiers are 14-9 despite a lucrative offseason spending spree, have lost six of their last seven games — the only win in that stretch was by a point in overtime at Ohio State — and are once again poised to miss the Big Dance. Woodson is 36-36 in Big Ten play as IU’s head coach, including 9-14 in February. Thursday’s news that Woodson is considering “retiring” after this season felt as inevitable as gravity.

But instead of jumping at the chance to bring one of its most successful sons back home, Indiana faces the prospect of going against him for the next decade-plus. May just turned 48 in December, already has a Final Four appearance to his name — something no Indiana coach since Mike Davis can claim, and that was over two decades ago — and the early indications are that he’ll have Michigan as a perennial league contender.

That is unless Indiana can somehow convince May to leave Michigan after only one season. Never say never, but it seems unlikely.

What could’ve been, IU. Coaches like Dusty May don’t grow on trees.

3. Here comes St. John’s, your new Big East (and maybe Final Four) front-runner

Per Bart Torvik, since Jan 1, the best adjusted defensive efficiency in college hoops belongs to none other than Rick Pitino and St. John’s.

Whoever could have seen this coming from *checks notes* a Hall of Fame coach who has led 10 different teams to a top-five adjusted defensive efficiency since 1997?

All kidding aside, the Johnnies are now up to fourth in KenPom’s season-long adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, courtesy of their top-10 2-point defense and block rate as well as their top-20 turnover rate. After St. John’s beat Marquette 70-64 on Tuesday, which put the Red Storm alone atop the Big East standings, Marquette coach Shaka Smart described Pitino’s defense perfectly: “They played with such incredible violence.”

Do they ever.

GO DEEPER

St. John’s big bet on the Rick Pitino Effect has it back on center stage

The Golden Eagles found that out from the very first possession Tuesday. After Kadary Richmond locked up soon-to-be first-team All-American Kam Jones, Jones set a screen for Chase Ross to free up a driving lane. Ross got a step on RJ Luis (No. 12), despite Luis fighting hard through the screen, only for Aaron Scott (No. 0) — who was chasing his man on a cut at the same moment — to see that Luis was beaten, ditch his cutter and contest Ross vertically with near-perfect timing:

Marquette wound up taking a 1-point lead into the half, but Pitino’s assured paint-peeling halftime speech apparently did the trick. St. John’s didn’t allow Marquette to score for the first four and a half minutes after the break, rattling off an 8-0 run that put the Johnnies in the driver’s seat for the rest of the night. Luis — the 6-foot-7 forward who is up to ninth in KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings — was especially dominant during that stretch. First, he got switched onto Ross and used his athleticism to alter Ross’ shot:

Two possessions later, Luis hustled to get back in transition, then timed his help perfectly to volleyball spike Ross’ layup attempt:

Luis finished with a season-high seven “stocks” (steals plus blocks).

But while St. John’s has solid individual defenders, like Luis, the beauty of its defense is how the whole unit comes together. In Richmond, Scott and Luis, Pitino has three switchable 6-foot-6/7 wings, but even 6-foot-9 big Zuby Ejiofor can hold his own defending on the perimeter. Here, Marquette successfully lured Ejiofor (No. 24) outside the paint by using his man, Ben Gold, in a ball screen. St. John’s then switched the screen, which resulted in the “mismatch” the Golden Eagles were hunting: Ejiofor on Jones on the perimeter. Except, it didn’t go as Marquette would’ve hoped:

But the way St. John’s defended during the most pivotal stretch of the game — the final five minutes, after the score was knotted at 55-55 — best showcases why the Johnnies should be considered not just Big East front-runners but a potential Final Four team. Marquette did not make a single field goal over the final five minutes, missing all six of its shots during that stretch, because St. John’s rotations were simply too sound to crack. (The Golden Eagles’ final 9 points came at the free-throw line.) Maybe the most impressive singular sequence of the game came with two and a half minutes left and St. John’s up 3. Marquette again got Ejiofor switched onto Jones on the perimeter, but there was nowhere for him to go on multiple drives. Marquette eventually settled for a corner 3, which Deivon Smith couldn’t have closed out more tightly on:

And finally, the dagger with under 90 seconds left. Marquette was one pass ahead of St. John’s basically this entire possession, but the Red Storm had perfect rotations and unbelievable effort, which ultimately resulted in Marquette settling for another contested corner 3. Watch how much ground Ejiofor covered in one possession:

St. John’s has won nine straight Big East games. The last time it did that? Way back in 1984-85 — aka, the last time the program made the Final Four. The Red Storm’s offense is, uh, challenging to watch at times — just ask Pitino — but the defense is as good as any in the country.

Free throws can be killer sometimes 😆

Bill Raftery caught up with @StJohnsBBall‘s Rick Pitino after the Red Storm’s win over Marquette ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/nyqj2IcorG

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 5, 2025

4. The cliff has come for …

Three early-season darlings, each of whom has fallen off for the same reason: a complete and utter inability to defend.

Oregon: The Ducks aren’t in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, thanks to their sterling nonconference resume, but their inaugural Big Ten campaign has certainly hit a skid with five losses in the last six games. Much of that stems from some serious defensive slippage. Since Jan. 1, per Bart Torvik, the Ducks are 135th in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing their opponents to make 54 percent of their 2s and 35.9 percent of their 3s — both of which are sub-250th nationally. The good news, if there is any, is that after traveling to Michigan State on Saturday, the Ducks get as light of a three-game slate as exists in the Big Ten: Northwestern and Rutgers in Eugene, then at Iowa. If Oregon’s struggles continue against those three, then it might be time to really sound the alarm.

Pittsburgh: The Panthers were one of the early surprises of this season but have come crashing back to Earth since the calendar flipped, losing six of their last eight games. The worst and most unforgivable of those was the most recent: a home defeat to 11-12 Virginia, which is 357th in scoring out of 364 Division I teams. No disrespect to the Cavaliers — who are really going through it in their first season sans Tony Bennett — but that’s the sort of loss that should be automatically disqualifying for NCAA Tournament consideration. Life isn’t getting easier for Pitt, either; the Panthers play at North Carolina and SMU in their next two games, two of the ACC’s six top-50 squads.

Kentucky: The Mark Pope honeymoon might not be fully over, but four losses in the Cats’ last five games have been sobering. Consider this: UK has the best adjusted offensive efficiency in college basketball since Jan. 1,  but its defense has been so dismal — 217th nationally over that same stretch — that all that glitzy scoring has gone to waste. Per KenPom, Kentucky is last in the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency, 2-point defense, overall turnover rate and steal rate. Now, some of that blame is due to injuries. Forward Andrew Carr missed the bulk of two games with a bad back, and point guard Lamont Butler, Kentucky’s best defender, remains out after already missing the last three games. (Pope can’t get Butler back soon enough.) But their returns won’t solve all of Kentucky’s issues — or wipe the lingering egg off UK’s face for allowing John Calipari to have the last laugh at Rupp. Yep. Still stings.

(Photo of Johni Broome and Cooper Flagg: Rob Kinnan / Imagn Images)

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