It’s not that common that a specific prospect’s name gets tossed out as the central focus of a rumor from the GM Meetings or Winter Meetings, so when it happens, you have to take note.
Well that’s interesting. So specific.
Firstly, let me say that, although the buzz is the buzz, I would point out that the Cubs don’t actually have to trade Owen Caissie this offseason – which will be his first on the 40-man roster – just because they have Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Cody Bellinger on the roster. To the extent anyone is trying to sell the Cubs on that particular rationale, they should reject.
Still, this rumor is getting out there for a reason, and I suspect it’s some combination of wishful thinking by a trade partner or two (who see the Cubs’ situation, and really want try to peel off a guy like Caissie), and realistic behavior by the Cubs (who know they probably have to trade someone, and would want to make sure all real interest is on the table before they engage in actual trade talks).
So the whole thing bears watching. (Here’s where you insert your hopefulness about Vlad Guererro Jr. or Garrett Crochet, as you could easily make the argument for a fit in either case.)
Lots of things are true all at once in these situations, and the best organizations are the ones that are good at knowing which things are MORE true at any given time …
The Cubs can’t keep all of their top position prospects who’ve reached Triple-A. Er, well, more precisely, they could keep them all, but there’s zero chance that would be the best use of their value in total. Instead, some come with value that is best captured by playing them at the big league level. Some come with value that is best captured by continuing to stash them and shuttle up-down. And some come with value that is best captured by trading them as soon as this offseason.
With Caissie, whose offensive upside is as high as any of the Cubs’ prospects, it is indeed correct to say that there isn’t an obvious path to everyday at bats at the big league level on Opening Day in 2025, ASSUMING everyone comes out of Spring Training healthy. (Which, of course, is not a fair assumption.)
Even in that world, a path to everyday at bats could pop up at any moment throughout 2025, depending on this or that or how April shakes out. We’ve seen this too many times before to be caught flat-footed.
And EVEN IF that spot never opens up, there’s a world where Cody Bellinger opts out after 2025, and a very obvious spot could open up in 2026. Having Caissie, who is 22, as an up-down Triple-A/MLB guy for one season would hardly be a sin. Good, loaded organizations do this all the time, and they also effectively use that year to keep developing the player.
But, again, I concede that the Cubs cannot/should not keep all of Caissie, Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, James Triantos, and Kevin Alcántara over the next 12 months. They COULD. There are WAYS to do it. And circumstances MIGHT conspire to make it more desirable at some point in the future. But as we sit here today, I don’t see how that’s the best use of player value. So I have to leave myself open to the possibility that one or more of those guys is dealt this offseason, and maybe the market is signaling that there is a lot of appetite to try to swing a trade for Owen Caissie.
Here’s hoping the Cubs have self-scouted exceptionally well, and know which of these prospects holds the most/likeliest future performance value for their own roster.
Caissie, who arrived at Triple-A at 21 years old, hit .278/.375/.472/121 wRC+ at the level this year, and registers exceptionally impressive batted ball data (another way of saying he hits the crap out of the ball). He generally ranks in the top 50 or so of national prospect lists at this point, and projects to be able to play solid defense in a corner outfield spot.
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