It’s April 24 and most starting pitchers have only worked five times this season with a handful having taken the ball six times. A full-season workload these days is generally 32-33 starts, so we aren’t even 20% of the way home. Still, as I noted in the MVP odds check-in Wednesday, people love to argue all season about awards and it’s possible there’s some money to be made in the futures market from the gamblers out there.
That means we’re going to dive in on the Cy Young odds (via Caesars) and discuss. Let’s get to it.
American League
Top five favorites:
- Garrett Crochet, Red Sox, +170
- Tarik Skubal, Tigers, +375
- Logan Gilbert, Mariners, +800
- Max Fried, Yankees, +800
- Hunter Brown, Astros, +1100
Brown has announced his presence with authority here in this, his breakout season. In five starts, he has a 1.16 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 31 strikeouts in 31 innings. He was once a top-30 prospect and it’s his third full season in the rotation, so it’s entirely reasonable to believe this leap forward is real.
I am still not buying Crochet as the favorite here. He’s been outstanding so far, but where will his workload end up? He only threw 146 innings last season and that came with a 5.12 ERA in 38 ⅔ innings after the All-Star break. Let him sit at the top here and just look elsewhere in bets.
Gilbert looks amazing and pitching half his games in a pitchers’ paradise doesn’t hurt. Fried also looks great, we know his pedigree is there and picking up the slack for an injured Gerrit Cole could provide bonus points.
Skubal should be the favorite. He’s the best pitcher in the American League and arguably the best in baseball. Small sample performances don’t change that.
Dark horses of note
Royals lefty Cole Ragans sits at +1100 and he was my pick heading into the season. I’m undeterred and actually think his odds should be lower. Some rough batted ball luck has him sitting with a 3.58 ERA, but he has 42 strikeouts against only seven walks in 27 ⅔ innings. He’ll get to 200 innings this season and lead the majors in strikeouts. He’s a much better bet than Crochet.
The Tigers look great and Jack Flaherty is the one other than Skubal with the ability to work up into the high-100s or even 200s in innings pitched. That means his odds at +5000 are worth a quick look. He’s finished fourth in Cy Young voting before and looks like an All-Star right now.
Chris Bassitt has been outstanding to start the season for the Blue Jays and sits at +5500. He already took a step back last start, but he’s 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 28 ⅔ innings on the season. If you think he’ll keep it up, he’s worth a look at this number.
Framber Valdez is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA at present, but only a fool would bet against him ending the season as one of the best AL pitchers. Given his track record, which includes finishes in Cy Young voting of fifth, seventh, ninth and 11th, that +6000 looks pretty nice.
Best value pick: Cole Ragans, Royals, +1100
I’m not abandoning my preseason pick right now. Ragans will keep dealing all year. You’ll see. The only one who scares me is Skubal, so you’d be justified to argue he’s the best play right now. It is absolutely not Crochet.
National League
Top five favorites:
- Paul Skenes, Pirates, +250
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers, +400
- Hunter Greene, Reds, +475
- Zack Wheeler, Phillies, +900
- Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves, +1000
Skenes has been great so far this season and he’ll probably get better as the season goes and we get into the summer months. I’m also, perhaps irrationally, convinced he’s going to be good at avoiding major injury. He makes for a quality favorite here.
Yamamoto and his splitter have been filthy so far this season, racking up 38 strikeouts in 29 innings. He only worked 108 ⅔ innings between the regular season and playoffs last year and the Dodgers are planning on a full month of postseason baseball again. How much will he actually pitch in the regular season in 2025? Will a workload of, say, 150 innings be enough to win the Cy Young? That’s a tough call.
Greene had a rough start last time out, but overall looks the part of ace, just like he did last year. He threw 150 ⅓ innings in 2024, so maybe he can get to 175 this year. With his rate stat ability (2.35 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 10.3 K/9), that might be enough to win. I’d put him above Yamamoto here.
I’m not yet buying fully in Schwellenbach for a full season at a high enough workload to win the Cy Young, but he sure looks like he’s on a road to proving me wrong.
Wheeler should be the favorite, though. He’s the best bet here to get to 200 innings pitched with a good ERA, great WAR and way more than 200 strikeouts. He’s finished second place in Cy Young voting twice, including last season. Remember, we’re playing the long game here and two bad outings in his first six pushing his ERA up to 3.62 just means a good buying opportunity for us. He leads the majors with 37 ⅓ innings and 50 strikeouts.
Dark horses of note
Logan Webb, as usual, is just steady and productive. His odds are +1600 and, remember, he’s finished second before. He’s also led the NL in innings pitched each of the previous two seasons and that’s a huge indicator of staying power when looking at Cy Young futures. Right now, he has a 1.98 ERA with 44 strikeouts in a 36 ⅓-inning workload. He shouldn’t be sitting behind Schwellenbach in the odds, at the very least.
Michael King late last season looked like he might be emerging as an ace. So far this season, he’s already thrown a shutout and is 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA with more strikeouts than innings pitched. His odds to win the Cy are +2500.
Jesús Luzardo has been freed from Miami and looks like the ace we heard he should be for years. Through five starts, he’s 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 30 ⅓ innings. He’s at +2800.
MacKenzie Gore worked more than 165 innings last season, so he could reasonably end up around 190 this year. Given the rate at which he’s punching batters out (45 strikeouts in 29 innings to lead the majors with 14 K/9), you could definitely squint your way to him ending up in the Cy Young picture. His odds to win it are +6000.
Best value pick: Wheeler +900
Looks like I’m sticking with both of my preseason predictions. I can absolutely see the urge to bet on Skenes, Yamamoto, Greene, Webb or King, but my pick remains Wheeler and that 9-to-1 figure is beautiful.
I love the number on Webb, too.
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