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Never say never with a 30-something coach. It’d be silly to speak in absolutes for a college football coach at that stage of their career when most in the profession don’t hit their stride until their 40s. Shoot, Nick Saban didn’t win a national title until he was 52, and nobody has more rings than him. On the flip side, the last 30-something coach to win a national title was a 33-year-old Danny Ford, who led Clemson to a title in the 1981 season but then never recorded another top-5 finish in his career.
Remember that as we speak about Dan Lanning’s career trajectory.
In case you missed it, the Oregon coach reportedly agreed to a new contract that’ll bump his pay up $2 million annually to average a staggering $11 million.
Lanning’s deal is fully guaranteed, and if another team wanted to poach him — a certain team in Tuscaloosa might’ve kicked the tires on that last year — it would cost $20 million. That number is actually unchanged from his previous contract. That’s fine. It didn’t need to change.
What did change with this contract is that Lanning should now be out of any discussion related to future SEC vacancies until further notice.
We probably should’ve put it to rest when he didn’t leave Oregon for Alabama last year. How serious that pursuit was is debatable, but what’s not debatable is that Oregon just ponied up in a way that it never has for a coach. For all the assumptions about Oregon and its Nike money, more significant was that 3 coaches left for other jobs in the decade that preceded Lanning’s arrival in Eugene, none of whom stuck around for a Year 5. That’s got “stepping stone job” written all over it. No more.
When Mario Cristobal signed his last contract extension at Oregon, it was Dec. 2020. That deal paid him an average of $4.55 million annually.
Yeah, times have changed.
For starters, Oregon joined a conference with a big-boy TV contract. That helps. Lanning walked into that conference and won it with a perfect regular-season record in Year 1. That helps, too. Lanning’s 35-6 mark through 3 years as a head coach is an absurd feat for a 30-something coach. He improved his overall win total, conference win total and final AP Top-25 ranking in each of his 3 years. His losses came to Kalen DeBoer (3), Jonathan Smith (1), Ryan Day (1) and Kirby Smart (1). Four of his losses came to coaches who have since moved to different programs. The 2 that didn’t, ironically enough, were blowouts that bookended Lanning’s first 3 years at Oregon.
It was only fitting that Lanning’s debut came against Smart. Seven months earlier, Lanning capped off his 4-year run as Smart’s assistant by helping Georgia win its first national title in 4 decades. And naturally, Smart looked the part of “master” in the master vs. disciple showdown.
Fast forward to 2025. Smart is approaching Year 10 at Georgia. He’ll turn 50 this year. In an ideal world for Georgia, Smart will continue to make UGA the team of the decade and he won’t leave on his own terms until he’s into his 60s. In this current NIL/year-round calendar world, we shouldn’t assume anything. If Smart stepped down at any point before that, any search list would have Lanning at the top of it. Duh. You’re making that phone call, and if you’re Georgia, you’re not letting that $20 million poach fee stand in the way of getting someone who is knocking on the door of greatness.
But ask yourself this. What’s holding Lanning back at Oregon? Anything?
This isn’t like Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma or even Brian Kelly at Notre Dame, both of whom felt they had reached their ceilings at their respective schools and left in pursuit of a title. Lanning is now stacking top-5 classes at Oregon. He’s a defensive-minded coach who nailed his offensive coordinator hires — don’t forget that Kenny Dillingham was his first OC — and his quarterback decisions. Go ask Brent Venables what it would be like to check both of those boxes.
The grind of a Big Ten schedule may eventually prevent Oregon from annually playing for a conference title, but a 9-0 start in conference play with a Big Ten Championship victory in Year 1 doesn’t suggest that’s imminent. Even if the Big Ten did give Oregon more struggles than we saw in Year 1, go ask Ohio State about how important it is to play in a conference title in this new era of the expanded Playoff. Lanning has ideal surroundings to make Oregon a yearly Playoff invitee with roster depth to make a deep run.
Early indications are that he also has the other important ingredient for longevity at the same program — alignment. Say what you want about Oregon AD Rob Mullens being on the other end of 3 coaches who left for other jobs in that decade, but consider this. Lanning’s contract as a first-time head coach started at an average of $4.7 million. After Year 1, he agreed to a raise that bumped him up to $7 million annually. Winning 10 games added another year on Lanning’s deal, and in Year 3, he was already up to $8.2 million. Now, Lanning will be at $11 million annually with this new deal.
Call me crazy, but that sounds like an athletic director and a coach who are in sync.
Of course, never say never that a relationship like that will sour. If Lanning is in Year 8 and he still hasn’t played in a national title game, who knows what the vibe will be? If Day becomes to Lanning what Michigan is to Day, it’ll be the “yeah, but.” That’s the elevated standard that Lanning brought upon himself.
More likely is that at some point in the 2020s decade, Lanning will do what nobody has done in Eugene — win it all. If and when that happens, Lanning will stop showing up at the top of vacancy lists and he’ll instead vault to the top of the list of all-time Oregon coaches.
Perhaps there’ll come a time when Lanning believes things have run their course at Oregon and he’ll seek a new chapter. Nobody would’ve ever guessed in the late-90s that Steve Spurrier’s time at Florida was nearing the end and that he’d eventually grow exhausted of the job after 12 years. Lanning’s got a long way to go to get to that point.
Never say never to the notion that an SEC return could one day be in store for Lanning. Just don’t hold your breath.
Connor O’Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He’s a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
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