Dennis Gates and the future of college basketball

“You’re looking at a black-and-white TV.”

That’s what Missouri coach Dennis Gates said when describing the usual, traditional box score given out after basketball games. The one listing points, rebounds, assists, even plus-minus.

“We’ve got a 3D screen with the glasses,” Gates said.

That 3D screen Gates is talking about is a scorecard produced by HD Intelligence, a basketball analytics company trying to bring the stat revolution that has come to the NBA in recent years into the college level.

Gates has been working with HDI since his final year at Cleveland State and has had them involved in both of his full seasons in Columbia, while keeping the relationship going this year.

“The NBA lives by analytics,” Gates said. “College basketball, believe it or not, a lot of programs live by analytics and we do here. And ultimately, it does not take away from my gut reaction of what decision I have to make, so I still have to veto analytics sometimes to make sure I’m still having my pulse on it. Analytics isn’t running our program. … This is a tool that is going to enhance, not just college basketball, but basketball in general, because what we do at this level trickles down to high school, trickles down to even grassroots.”

Every game, Gates receives a box score at halftime and after the game, detailing a lot of different stats than you would usually see. Shot selection percentages, effective field goal percentage (a number counting 3-pointers as 1.5 shots to a 2-pointers single attempt), player efficiency rating (an evaluation of a player’s total contribution to the team’s efficiency), points per possession, true shooting percentage (shooting efficiency that adds in free throws and the difficulty of 3s), are all numbers that pop into these quickly analyzed ‘3D screen’ box scores.

All those numbers aren’t running the program, but they are helping Gates make decisions that best help the team.

He used the example of Kobe Brown in Gates’ first year in Columbia diving into the analytics to help him determine a better shot selection.

Brown went from shooting about 78 percent of his attempts from within the 3-point line to about 68 percent by nearly doubling his attempts from beyond the arc (68 total in 2021-22 to 112 in 2022-23).

And with that change came about an additional four points per game, going from 413 points scored in his junior year to 538 as a senior and raising Brown’s draft stock enough to get picked by the Los Angeles Clippers in the back end of the first round of the 2023 draft.

“Kobe Brown mastered this, he cared about this,” Gates said. “Kobe Brown cared about this and that is why you saw a big difference in this shift after the first seven or eight games of his season with us. He started relying on his 3-point field goal attempts versus pull ups and getting to the layups.”

The most noticeable change Gates’ teams make because of the analytic focus is the amount of 3-pointers the team takes, and it’s not just a focus on a D’Moi Hodge or Caleb Grill shooting all night, it’s everyone on the floor shooting more 3s.

It’s been noticed in the NBA the past handful of years as well, if you can’t get to the rim, then the most efficient shot to take is a 3.

But this year, since his best 3-point shooter suffered a lingering neck injury, Gates’ offense has become focused on getting to the rim and the free-throw line more than ever before in his tenure.

Gates used the Cal game as an example for media to look through in an analytics-based press conference and mentioned the Tigers’ shooting 27 second-half free throws as a plan designed to extend the game as long as possible to create more opportunities for the Missouri comeback.

The coach added that a look at the analytics at halftime of the Cal matchup made him more comfortable with the rotations he was planning to go with after the break.

“I knew we had to live in the paint,” Gates said. “Had to have multiple ball handlers and these analytics, meaning my knowledge of how it applies and my memory of how it applies, allows me to make the in-game adjustments how I need. … It’s not going to tell me who I need to play, who I need to start, but our team has the ability to play multiple ways and when you don’t see a kid, it’s not that a kid did something wrong, it’s because the opposition has this weakness I’m trying to exploit and our analytics allows me this cumulative data to now apply in rotations.”

Through an equation of the amount of free throws (27) times 10 (270) and divided by 60 (4.5) the Tigers analytically extended the second half from 20 minutes to about 25 through additional time scoring without the clock running.

“That’s how I look at it,” Gates said. “We extended our clock on the ability to score, while taking away their clock. So I had, we had 25 minutes, while you guys (media) are looking at it like, ‘Oh, it’s 20 minutes left.’ It’s gonna change … how the flow of the game goes.”

One of the other noticeable effects that come from Gates’ analytic focus is his team’s focus on getting steals and playing in transition.

Gates’ teams each year have struggled a bit in the half-court offense and defending the three-point line. Both come from a different focus.

First, the most-efficient way to produce points is to play in transition. Having a 2-on-1, 3-on-2 or 4-on-3 advantage will always give the offense a leg up and Gates’ teams have greatly succeeded at scoring when their possessions last less than 12 seconds.

One of the ways possessions are measured is by success in six-second increments. From 0-6 seconds, 7-12, 13-18, 19-24 and 25-30.

Gates’ teams have been incredibly successful scoring on possessions that last either 0-6 seconds or 7-12 seconds, but that success drops at each increment after that.

That’s why you’ll often see the Tigers moving fast even after a made basket against them, charging down the floor before the opposing defense has a chance to get set.

It’s also why the Tigers sell out for steals.

And that philosophy sometimes leads to a defense that allows open looks from 3 or has trouble rebounding.

But the name of the analytic game is maximizing possessions, which comes from the equation of offensive rebounds plus turnovers forced. Both get an extra possession, an extra opportunity to score.

And the more opportunities to score, the better.

Let’s take the Tigers’ recent game against Jacksonville State as an example.

Missouri was outrebounded by 11 and gave up 16 offensive rebounds, but because Mizzou only gave up three turnovers – one of which was at the end of the game and effectively meaningless – the Gamecocks got 19 extra possessions (18 they could do anything with), while the Tigers grabbed nine offensive rebounds and forced 12 turnovers for 21 extra possessions.

The game looked ugly and it’s not fun to watch a team get outrebounded by an inferior opponent, but analytically, the Tigers ended up with more extra possessions even though they gave up a lot of offensive boards because they took care of the ball and forced turnovers on defense.

And those extra possessions led to an 11-point win.

Those are the types of equations Gates is looking at when he’s determining how successful his team is.

He mentioned his team getting outrebounded early during the Border War as well, but because the Tigers were forcing many turnovers early, they were taking many more shots from the field, so Gates had to keep his team focused not on the pure number of rebounds, but the info surrounding why his team was getting outrebounded.

The turnovers forced and extra shots were enough to get the team to buy in even though kansas was cruising to rebound after rebound when the Tigers missed. And one of the main points of these numbers is to help the players buy in to what the team wants to do.

“Players measure themselves and their success with how much time they get and what stats they actually have,” Gates said. “And usually it means the more minutes, the better you do. That’s not necessarily true. Player efficiency rating is more important than anything. It’s what you do with what you got. … This box score allows us to make sure I’m communicating their success so they can see it, because they’re learning this new way of life, too.”

But these numbers aren’t just about communicating to his current players, Gates uses them to help build his roster going forward.

He said a focus on Josh Gray’s rebounding-per-minute was what drew Gates to getting Gray in the transfer portal, while seeing the difference in how Ant Robinson, Marques Warrick and Tony Perkins are successful led to building the combo of guards that run the Tiger offense.

With the rate Gates substitutes players, judging on metrics that can give a number based on success in smaller amounts of time helps let players know that they have succeeded even if they only played a couple of minutes, because what they did in those couple of minutes helped the team win, even if it wasn’t scoring in double figures or grabbing five or more rebounds.

Basketball is moving forward into the future with new numbers and ways to analyze what is happening on the court. Every sport is as more and more ways to evaluate player performance become easier and easier.

And Gates is charging ahead trying to use it all the best he can to produce a consistent winner with the Missouri Tigers.

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