The Dodgers made a big addition to their bullpen this weekend, agreeing to a deal with the winter’s top free agent reliever, left-hander Tanner Scott. Prior to that agreement, the Dodgers had some discussions with right-hander Kirby Yates, reports Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times.
The interest is perfectly understandable, as Yates is coming off an excellent season. He tossed 61 2/3 innings for the Rangers last year, allowing only 1.17 earned runs per nine. His 11.8% walk rate was fairly high but also not abnormal for him. He worked around those free passes by striking out 35.9% of batters he faced and also getting grounders on 45.5% of balls in play. He took over the closer’s role in Texas, earning 33 saves on the year.
Despite that excellent season, the righty’s market will be limited. He is turning 38 years old in March, which will naturally put a cap on how long teams are willing to invest in him. He’s also had plenty of injury issues over the years. He hardly pitched at all from 2020 to 2022, with Tommy John surgery being the main reason. He returned to the mound in 2023 and had decent but not outstanding results, with a 3.28 ERA that year. His 31.5% strikeout rate was quite strong but a few ticks below his 2024 level, while the walks were even higher, finishing at 14.6%.
Atlanta could have kept him around for 2024 via a $5.75MM club option but opted for a $1.25MM buyout instead. That led to Yates getting a one-year, $4.5MM deal from the Rangers, which worked out great. His excellent season will definitely get him a bump from that level, but some hesitation from clubs is still justifiable.
The Dodgers have generally been willing to invest in talented pitchers, despite injury concerns. That hasn’t always worked out, as they have sometimes been heavily snakebit over the years, though they just hoisted the World Series trophy last year.
The club presumably still has some interest in Yates but the Scott deal might also lower their urgency. It’s not as though the bullpen was a glaring weakness to begin with. The club’s relief corps had a combined ERA of 3.53 last year, a mark bested by only three other teams in the majors. They lost Blake Treinen and Joe Kelly to free agency at season’s end but re-signed Treinen last month and now have Scott in the fold as well.
RosterResource currently projects the club to run a six-man rotation next year, which is certainly a possibility. In 2024, they avoided using Yoshinobu Yamamoto on a five-day schedule in order to help him make the transition from Japan, where starters normally throw once a week. In 2025, they will be folding in Roki Sasaki, who is younger than Yamamoto and has had more injuries in his career. They will also be getting guys like Shohei Ohtani, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May back from lengthy surgery absences. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow haven’t been workhorses in their career either. Clayton Kershaw will presumably re-sign with the club and be back in the mix, though he’s had his own share of injury concerns lately. In short, having six starters and lowering everyone’s workload would be sensible.
Running a six-man rotation would normally limit a club to a seven-man bullpen, since clubs aren’t allowed to roster more than 13 pitchers. Ohtani’s status as a two-way player means he can effectively be counted as a position player, allowing the Dodgers to have both a six-man rotation and eight-man bullpen at times, though not at the start of the season. Ohtani missed the 2024 season due to UCL surgery and then also required arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder just a few months ago. Last month, manager Dave Roberts said it’s unlikely Ohtani will be in the club’s rotation to start the year, so they may be capped at 13 pitchers and a seven-man bullpen until Ohtani can get back on the mound.
Scott and Treinen will be in two spots, with the Dodgers also having Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Anthony Banda and Ryan Brasier. That makes for seven arms that seem fairly locked in. Vesia is the only one that can be optioned and he just posted a 1.76 ERA last year. It’s still possible that the club signs Yates anyway then just waits to see if everyone stays healthy through the spring. If that comes to pass, they could then cut someone at the end of camp. But it’s also possible they will just pass on Yates and see how the season plays out with this group.
As mentioned, the club had a strong bullpen last year and has now added Scott to it. RosterResource also projects next year’s payroll at $369MM and their competitive balance tax number at $371MM, with both of those numbers close to $40MM beyond last year’s figures. Given how aggressive they’ve been, no one would be surprised if they kept adding, but they also might feel like they’ve done enough at this point.
If Yates needs to look elsewhere for his next contract, he should have plenty of options. He’s been connected to the Cubs, Tigers, Rangers and Diamondbacks this offseason and presumably has interest from other clubs as well. Teams like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox and Atlanta had some interest in Scott and could be looking elsewhere for relief help after he landed with the Dodgers. The relief market has been heating up more broadly of late, with Scott, A.J. Minter, Jose Leclerc, Jeff Hoffman and Andrew Kittredge agreeing to deals in recent weeks.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Yates for a strong one-year deal with a $14MM guarantee. That was a reflection of his aforementioned excellent season but also his yellow flags. The offseason has been kind to some relievers, with Scott, Minter and Clay Holmes surpassing projections, though the Mets plan to stretch out Holmes as a starter. Hoffman came in below his prediction but that seems to have been a result of some concerns about his shoulder in his physical. Treinen got a two-year deal despite the fact that he’ll turn 37 this year and has a lengthy injury history. All those factors should lead to a healthy deal for Yates, regardless of which team he ultimately lands with.
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