Baseball is officially back in full swing! We’re in the “best shape of X player’s life” time on the calendar in MLB, and college baseball just wrapped up their second weekend of the season. There is so much happening, and our social media feeds are finally filled with baseball again.
With baseball back, it’s never too early for reactions, right? Some players have made adjustments that will directly translate to long-term success, while others have simply had a hot start to the season. We’re going to sift through what’s real and what’s fake, identifying three early-season draft takeaways that will translate to the long term.
Early Draft Storylines
Liam Doyle will push Jamie Arnold for the top College Pitcher
Doyle entered the 2025 season as a fringe top-75 prospect. He had shown flashes of potential, but couldn’t seem to consistently put it together. At Ole Miss during his sophomore season, he pitched to a 5.73 ERA, giving up a staggering 1.8 HR/9. A switch has seemingly flipped to start the 2025 season. So far in 10.1 IP after transferring to Tennessee, he leads the nation in strikeouts with 25, while only walking one batter. At Ole Miss, he showed impressive abilities to miss bats and throw strikes with 84 strikeouts in 55 innings, and only 21 free passes. But this new and improved version of Doyle is dominant.
The quality of Doyle’s fastball is the main reason for his early season success. In 2024, the fastball was impressive generating a 33% whiff rate, but only averaged 92.5 mph flashing up to 96.1 mph. That pitch has taken a massive leap forward. So far in 2025, the fastball is generating a 69.6% whiff rate. Yes, 69.6% is not a typo. The velocity has jumped almost three full ticks averaging 95.1 mph through two starts, reaching as high as 99.5. Combine that elite velocity with an elite -3.88 VAA and 21.7 IVB, and you have a true 80-grade fastball.
What has been even more impressive about Doyle is the ability to command the fastball at the top of the zone. As outlined by his elite VAA and IVB, he is a low slot high vert lefty, so the pitch plays best at the top of the zone. In both of his starts, his ability to place the fastball right at the top of the zone consistently puts hitters in conflict. Not only is the pitch a strike on the edge of the top of the zone, but it is in the upper 90s with an elite movement profile. A nasty combination.
Doyle has also flashed two plus offspeed offerings. His slider has generated a 60% whiff rate, while his splitter has a 66.7% whiff rate. He has been as close to unhittable as a pitcher can be. 67% of the pitches hitters swing at have resulted in a swing and miss, which would be impressive against high school competition. He will have to replicate it consistently through SEC play, but the jump in velocity combined with the elite shape, and impressive strike-throwing ability, has turned him into a legit top 10 prospect in the class.
Jamie Arnold is elite and will have his name called early, but Doyle has shown better stuff so far in the early going, and better stuff than Arnold has ever shown. Doyle will face a high-powered Oklahoma State offense Friday afternoon on MLB Network. If you want to tune into the potential top arm in the class, it might be worth the watch.
Aiva Arquette is doing his best Travis Bazzana Impersonation
I mentioned in my prospects to watch article that Arquette enters the 2025 season in an eerily similar position to 2024 No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana. Bazzana entered his draft year with the best bat-to-ball skills in the class, but the main question was how much power he was going to hit for. Arquette entered this season with impressive bat-to-ball skills, but the main concern was how much power he would hit for. Both entered the season with 17 career home runs, but above-average exit velocity data. Bazzana went on to hit 28 home runs. Arquette has three home runs in seven games.
Arquette came into the 2025 season with impressive data. He had a 93 mph average exit velocity, with an 80.6% contact rate. Both of those numbers are well above average but only translated to 12 home runs and a .324 batting average. The main reason? A 26.5% barrel rate. He hit the ball extremely hard, but when he did it wasn’t in the air enough.
In 2025, his barrel rate has only slightly increased to 30.8% and his groundball rate has actually increased, but the exit velocity has ticked up again. On the year, he is averaging 97 mph, while making contact with 83% of pitches he swings at. When he swings, he is making a ton of contact, and that contact specifically is loud. To really tap into his full power potential, he needs to not hit so many balls on the ground, but averaging 97 mph on batted balls is going to lead to a power increase naturally. It will be interesting to see if his groundball rate goes down, and if he pushes 25 home runs similar to Bazzana.
The Top of the 2024 College Draft Class Clears 2025… by a lot
I was extremely high on the 2024 college draft class at the top, making it tough to match. So far, the 2025 class has been underwhelming in comparison. The names at the top of the 2025 class lack the same excitement as those from the 2024 class. Yes, that excitement came after a full junior season of data and hype, but based on what I value for hitters specifically, there were many more names that stood out last season. Every top prospect in the 2025 class has flaws that are worrisome. In contrast, most of the top prospects in the 2024 class excited me with their overall profiles, resulting in a legitimate battle for the top spot.
Looking at the top of the 2025 class, Jace LaViolette has some contact concerns, Jamie Arnold lacks a third pitch, and Aiva Arquette has struggled with power production and tends to chase. Tyler Bremner does not possess dominant stuff, while Brendan Summerhill doesn’t hit the ball hard enough. The same goes for Cam Cannarella and Marek Houston. In contrast, last year’s class featured players like Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, JJ Wetherholt, Jac Caglianone, Nick Kurtz, Chase Burns, Hagen Smith, Braden Montgomery, James Tibbs III, Christian Moore, Cam Smith and Carson Benge, all of whom showcased a combination of high exit velocity, contact skills, impressive swing decisions, or dominant swing-and-miss stuff. As of now, only LaViolette and Arnold are in the conversation with the names mentioned from the 2024 class, and even that would come after considering about 10 other players.
This doesn’t mean the 2025 class can’t compete in terms of talent. The high school class is very strong, and there will be some risers. Additionally, all the college prospects could develop into more rounded players during their draft springs. However, in my early-season opinion, the top of the 2024 class is heads and shoulders above the 2025 class. Time will tell, but for fantasy owners, it might be worth shopping those FYPD picks throughout the year.
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