Competitive parity may not be the standard in college football, but the Big 12 title race should be among the most even across the entire Power Four conference landscape.
While other leagues have big favorites or are top-heavy with title contenders, the newly-expanded Big 12 has several teams that can be considered in the mix to make a run for the trophy, and thus for the College Football Playoff.
Now that ESPN has revealed its preseason 136-team college football rankings, fans have a clearer look at some of the first expert prognostications for how conferences are expected to fare and what teams have a legitimate shot at making a run for the postseason.
Let’s take a look at college football’s most competitive conference, and see how the ESPN computer models project each Big 12 team’s win total prediction for the 2025 season.
1. Kansas State: 8.6 wins
2. Arizona State: 8.3 wins
3. BYU: 8 wins
4. Texas Tech: 7.9 wins
5. Kansas: 7.9 wins
6. Baylor: 7.2 wins
7. TCU: 7.2 wins
8. UCF: 7.2 wins
9. Iowa State: 6.7 wins
10. Colorado: 6.5 wins
11. Utah: 6.4 wins
12. Cincinnati: 6.4 wins
13. Oklahoma State: 5.5 wins
14. West Virginia: 5.2 wins
15. Arizona: 4.9 wins
16. Houston: 4.8 wins
─ Kansas State has the slightest edge in this prediction, with Avery Johnson and Dylan Edwards manning this backfield, but breaking in a new offensive coordinator.
─ Defending Big 12 champ Arizona State is right behind, even after losing star tailback Cam Skattebo, but with quarterback Sam Leavitt and lead target Jordyn Tyson returning, more than enough to stay in the mix for a repeat.
─ There’s some big roster turnover for BYU to work through, including on the defense that was the Big 12’s best in total production and scoring, and with a major distraction as quarterback Jake Retzlaff was accused of sexual assault in a civil lawsuit.
─ Texas Tech was the big spender this offseason, and the heat is on to ensure that investment translates into a much better return on the field in a more balanced conference, but there are also two new coordinators on the job who have to prove themselves.
─ Devin Neal is out of the picture, but Kansas returns Jalon Daniels at quarterback, even if he’s dealt with plenty of injuries during his career, but eight wins would be a great turnaround after the Jayhawks went 5-7 a year ago.
─ Baylor engineered a promising turnaround last season, coming back to win eight games, and this time around Dave Aranda’s team returns a lot of that experience.
─ Around the middle of the pack are TCU and UCF, with the Horned Frogs hoping to build some momentum after a strong finish last year and returning their quarterback, while Scott Frost returns to lead a Knights team that saw huge transfer turnover.
─ Kind of a low number for Iowa State after playing for the Big 12 title a year ago, given the departure of key receiving talent that was crucial to this offense, but at least returning signal caller Rocco Becht, who has to get acquainted with his new targets real fast.
─ All eyes are on Colorado and Coach Prime to build off last year’s success, but without those household names like Shedeur and Travis to help out. Kaidon Salter is a quality transfer quarterback with solid stats to his name, and he’s working behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in college football.
─ Utah has been a strong program under Kyle Whittingham’s leadership, and this offense undergoes some notable change by bringing on transfer quarterback Devon Dampier, who has turned out some quality numbers under incoming play-caller Jason Beck.
─ What’s old is new again at West Virginia after bringing back Rich Rodriguez, but he faces an almost entirely revamped roster that was gutted by the transfer portal.
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