College football’s historic 12-team playoff is down to its four-team semifinal round as we inch closer towards the national championship.
The one thing we do know: We’ll have a new national champion this year, after defending champ Michigan failed to qualify for the top dozen.
The most recent national champion left in the current field is Ohio State, which won the first-ever College Football Playoff title back in the 2014 season.
Texas last won the championship to cap off the 2005 season in the famous 2006 Rose Bowl, while Notre Dame hoisted the trophy in 1988 and Penn State back in 1986.
What can we make of the national championship race right now?
For that, let’s turn to ESPN’s College Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
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4. Penn State
Title chance: 15.6 percent
The odd man out among the last four semifinalists, and the only one to not crack 20 percent on the index, despite the Nittany Lions fielding one of their most talented teams in modern history.
Penn State got a more favorable path to the national championship, knocking out SMU by a 38-10 count in the first round and getting past Boise State in a 31-14 victory in the quarterfinal.
Its defense has been critical to that success, intercepting six passes in that time, and returning two of them for touchdowns, both in the SMU game.
And the unit held Heisman Trophy finalist Ashton Jeanty to just 3.5 yards per carry, the lowest output of his historic season, and only 104 yards total with no touchdowns.
Running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are both averaging about 7 yards per carry, while quarterback Drew Allar is completing 55 percent of his throws in the postseason.
Penn State just has to beat Notre Dame in the semifinal round to advance to the national championship game and face either Ohio State and Texas.
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3. Texas
Title chance: 26.9 percent
While the Longhorns made the most of their first season in the SEC, they were unable to win the conference championship, and both of their losses came against Georgia.
But they’re still in the College Football Playoff, and the Bulldogs aren’t.
That’s despite some concerning inconsistency on the offensive side of the ball, but when quarterback Quinn Ewers is on, he can lead this team anywhere it wants to go.
Running the ball has been profitable for Texas when it works: its backs ran for almost 300 yards in the first round victory against Clemson, but just 53 and a 1.8 ypc average against Arizona State.
Both phases will have to play their best game against an Ohio State defense that is among college football’s very best both against the pass and the run.
Texas will have something like home-field advantage in the Cotton Bowl semifinal, played in Arlington, but still have a tough task getting past the Buckeyes.
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2. Ohio State
Title chance: 28.4 percent
Ohio State has the highest-ranked strength of schedule among the remaining four semifinal teams, sitting at No. 8 nationally according to the Football Power Index model.
And for all intents and purposes, this looks like the best team left in the College Football Playoff.
Coming out of that stunning loss against rival Michigan as heavy favorites in the regular season finale, the mood around the Buckeyes seemed to be low heading into the postseason.
But they responded in style, demolishing SEC challenger Tennessee in a 42-17 rout at home in the first round game before getting revenge on its new Big Ten rival in the quarterfinal.
Jeremiah Smith scored twice while covering 187 yards and the Buckeyes stomped on Oregon in a 20-point victory at the Rose Bowl quarterfinal after building an early 34-0 lead.
Ohio State boasts some of college football’s most productive and diverse skill options, with the capacity to spread things out downfield and run the ball with authority, too.
And its getting confident play from quarterback Will Howard, who is working behind an offensive line that has outplayed its expectations after losing both its starting center and left tackle.
Now they face a Texas team in the Cotton Bowl semifinal that has allowed more than 600 yards passing in its two playoff appearances.
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1. Notre Dame
Title chance: 29.1 percent
Something of a surprise, although maybe not so much after watching the Fighting Irish thoroughly outplay SEC champion Georgia in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal game.
Defense and a stout ground game have brought Notre Dame to this point, winning 12 straight games after that loss against Northern Illinois earlier in the year.
Lots of analysts wanted to write off the Fighting Irish after that game, but this team proved there’s plenty of room for second chances in the expanded playoff era.
Jeremiyah Love has rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored 16 touchdowns while leading a Notre Dame backfield that ranks 11th nationally in rushing production.
Riley Leonard added more than 800 yards and another 15 touchdowns at the quarterback position, and the Irish are fourth in FBS with 42 rushing touchdowns on the year.
Notre Dame’s defense has been one of college football’s best all year, with big strengths in the secondary and along the front line, despite weathering some prominent injuries to key players.
Now, the Irish face Big Ten runner-up Penn State in the Orange Bowl semifinal for a shot at the national championship, which they haven’t won since head coach Marcus Freeman was a baby.
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