Virginia Football has not made a bowl game in Tony Elliott’s first three seasons, but based on their offseason activity, that seems to be the goal. Elliott has brought in 30 transfers this offseason and the Cavaliers have one of the most underrated transfer classes in the country and one of the top ones in the ACC. To top it all off, UVA has one of the most manageable schedules in the ACC. They avoid Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Georgia Tech this season, four teams that are projected to be among the best in the conference.
How does the future look for Virginia Football? Not great according to ESPN’s Future Power Rankings.
ESPN analyst Adam Rittenberg released a new set of “Future power rankings” this week and Virginia was the third lowest-rated ACC team, ahead of only Wake Forest and Stanford.
Here is how the future power rankings were calculated:
“Teams will be evaluated in the following categories:
Returning quarterback
Likelihood of a multiyear QB on roster
Offensive line/defensive line outlook
Roster management
Star power (All-Americans, national award contenders, all-conference contenders)
Coaching staff
Not every area has to be a strength to boost a team’s overall rating. Most teams likely cannot rely on having a multiyear starting quarterback on their roster, given the volatility of the position. But the most promising teams usually check at least a few of these boxes, especially overall roster management (high school recruiting and transfers), line-of-scrimmage play and at least some star power”
Here is what Rittenberg had to say about Virginia Football:
Previous future power ranking: Not ranked
Returning quarterback: “No. Anthony Colandrea, Virginia’s starter in 2024, transferred to UNLV as the Cavaliers reshaped the quarterback room with two key portal additions. Colandrea had 2,125 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last fall.
Likelihood of a multiyear QB: Slim. Virginia brought in senior Chandler Morris as the projected starter for 2025. Morris, the son of former college coach Chad Morris, revived his career last season at North Texas, passing for 3,774 yards and 31 touchdowns for the nation’s No. 3 offense. His eligibility will expire after the fall. Virginia also added Nebraska transfer Daniel Kaelin, a sophomore.
Offensive line/defensive line outlook: Virginia has options on the offensive line, between a group of returning players with starting experience, including tackle McKale Boley, and a transfer contingent that includes center Brady Wilson from UAB. A spring ACL injury to Louisville transfer Monroe Mills stings, but the team added James Madison transfer Tyshawn Wyatt and others. Virginia needs much more of a pass rush from its linemen and added three ends — Cazeem Moore (Elon), Mitchell Melton (Ohio State) and Fisher Camac (Virginia) — from the portal. Senior Jahmeer Carter is back in the interior, and Alabama transfer Hunter Osborne has a high ceiling.
Roster management: Virginia made its first major transfer portal push this winter and spring, adding Morris and Kaelin at quarterback but also notable offensive and defensive linemen, an experienced wide receiver in Jahmal Edrine, a talented safety in Devin Neal (Louisville) and others. The Hoos also lost top wideout Malachi Fields to Notre Dame and took some hits on the offensive line, but their gains outshined the departures. Virginia is looking for similar momentum in high school recruiting after signing the No. 52 class for 2025.
Star power: Linebacker Kam Robinson earned honorable mention All-ACC honors in 2024 after leading Virginia with five interceptions and finishing second in tackles with 64. Will another defender join him in the All-ACC mix? Neal is certainly one to watch. Running back Xavier Brown averaged 6.1 yards per carry for Virginia last fall and should have a bigger role. Wilson is an accomplished lineman and Edrine will have a big role at receiver.
Coaching staff: Tony Elliott is just 11-23 at Virginia, but there’s optimism for Year 4 with an upgraded roster at several positions. Elliott has maintained staff continuity, as coordinators Des Kitchings (offense) and John Rudzinski (defense) return, along with all the position coaches.”
This is a pivotal season for Virginia under Elliott. If he can’t take advantage of a favorable schedule, it could mean a change is on the way. Virginia has pushed its chips in the middle with this transfer portal class and seems to be doing so in hopes of getting back to the postseason.
The first edition of the 2025 ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) was released this week and it has Virginia ranked as the 63rd best team in the country and finishing with a record of 7-5. FPI gives UVA a 71.4% chance to make a bowl game, a 0.8% chance to win the ACC, and a 1.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Here is how FPI sees the ACC in the first release:
1. Miami (No. 9 overall)
2. Clemson (No. 11)
3. SMU (No. 20)
4. Virginia Tech (No.26)
5. Georgia Tech (No. 28)
6. Louisville (No. 41)
7. Florida State (No. 48)
8. Boston College (No. 50)
9. North Carolina (No. 51)
10. Duke (No. 54)
11. NC State (No. 57)
12. Pittsburgh (No. 58)
13. California (No. 60)
14. Syracuse (No. 62)
15. Virginia (No. 63)
16. Stanford (No. 64)
17. Wake Forest (No. 89)
Here is how Virginia’s 2025 schedule looks from an FPI perspective:
Aug. 30th- Coastal Carolina (100th)
Sept. 6th- at NC State (No. 57)
Sept. 13th- William & Mary (NA)
Sept. 20th- Stanford (64th)
Sept. 26th- Florida State (48th)
Oct. 4th- at Louisville (41st)
Oct. 18th- Washington State (98th)
Oct. 25th- at North Carolina (51st)
Nov. 1st- at Cal (60th)
Nov. 8th- Wake Forest (89th)
Nov. 15th- at Duke (54th)
Nov. 28th- Virginia Tech (26th)
As you can see, this is a very favorable schedule for the Cavaliers. They avoid Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Georgia Tech this season and don’t face a projected top-25 opponent according to FPI. I also don’t think Virginia Tech is the 26th best team in the country and 4th best in the ACC. I don’t expect this team to be in the ACC Championship, but anything less than a bowl appearance is going to be mighty disappointing.
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